NEW KYRGYZ PM AND PARLIAMENT START WORK, WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001538

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: NEW KYRGYZ PM AND PARLIAMENT START WORK, WHILE
OPPOSITION SEES SETBACKS

REF: BISHKEK 1525

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Energy Minister and Bakiyev loyalist
Igor Chudinov assumed the prime ministerial post December 24
and indicated a new cabinet would be in place by year's end.
In parliament, ex-State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov was
elected speaker, and the pro-presidential Ak Jol party
obtained control of most parliamentary committees.
Meanwhile, extra-parliamentary opposition party Ata Meken
vowed to take its election vote challenge to the Supreme
Court. Despite strong evidence of electoral fraud, a lower
court December 23 rejected Ata Meken's effort to overturn
results in Osh city on the grounds that the electoral code
has no language permitting the voiding of election results.
Opposition groups and NGOs have identified numerous possible
strategies to counter the government. END SUMMARY.

NEW PM IN PLACE
--------------


2. (SBU) Former Energy Minister Igor Chudinov, an ethnic
Russian, assumed the Kyrgyz prime ministerial post December

24. Chudinov proposed the government's structure for
parliamentary approval the same day, and hinted that Cabinet
appointments could occur before year's end. Some opposition
groups criticized Chudinov's appointment due to his inability
to speak Kyrgyz, a constitutional requirement which some Ak
Jol and Communist leaders have deemed unimportant. (Note:
Due to engagement in U.S.-financed programs designed to
reform the electricity sector, the Embassy has had a
constructive relationship with Chudinov. End note.)

PARLIAMENT STRUCTURED, AK JOL FLEXES ITS MUSCLES
-------------- ---


3. (SBU) Parliament reconvened December 24, elected
parliamentary committee leaders, and named ex-State Secretary
and Bakiyev loyalist Adakhan Madumarov Speaker. Madumarov
has already vowed to "tighten discipline," curtail MP
international travel and cut parliamentary staffing outside
of Bishkek.


4. (SBU) In addition to Madumarov's appointment, ex-Vice
Speaker Kubanychbek Isabekov regained his former post, with
Aziz Tursunbayev and ex-Constitutional Court Chair Cholpon
Bayekova also elected Vice Speakers ) making the
parliamentary leadership 100% Ak Jol. Of the 12
parliamentary committees, Ak Jol MPs will chair nine, with
the Social Democrats (SDPK) receiving two and leaving one for
the Communists.

OPPOSITION CHALLENGED AND, POSSIBLY, CONQUERED...FOR NOW
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Opposition party Ata Meken, which secured no seats
in the new parliament due ostensibly to insufficient voter
support in Osh city, vowed to pursue its case to the Supreme
Court. Despite arguments that the Central Election
Commission (CEC) bungled its responsibilities, strong
evidence that CEC-processed protocols had been forged and the
suspicious technical breakdown of the computerized vote
counting system, a lower Bishkek court ruled December 23 that
there was no language in the election code to void the
election results in Osh city.


6. (SBU) As evidence of the forged protocols, Ata Meken

BISHKEK 00001538 002 OF 002


representatives presented protocols, which record individual
precinct results, from up to four different observers that
demonstrated a systematic reduction in Ata Meken's vote
tallies, often by dropping the first digit, in the
CEC-processed protocols. So, for example, in a precinct
where three independent protocols showed Ata Meken receiving
211 votes, the CEC version recorded only 11. In another
precinct, three protocols showed Ata Meken with 59 votes, but
the CEC version only listed nine votes. Similar revisions
were documented in numerous Osh precinct protocols.


7. (SBU) Opposition groups and NGOs met December 24 to
contemplate ways to oppose the government. Ata Meken member
Kubatbek Baibolov suggested gathering 300,000 signatures to
support constitutional changes. Others suggested creating a
"shadow parliament" and holding anti-government
demonstrations. Attendees also discussed an "honor code" in
order to dissuade opposition activists from being co-opted by
the government -- a tactic that has been successfully
employed in the past. Ex-Foreign Minister Alikbek
Jekshenkulov volunteered to lead the united opposition,
proposing the group be called the "Civil Union for Justice."

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) With only token parliamentary opposition and Bakiyev
loyalists assuming the prime ministerial and parliamentary
speaker posts, the Kyrgyz White House may indeed have
something to celebrate this New Year's and have decided to
declare January 1-7 an official holiday. When everyone
returns, we expect they will continue to settle the remaining
organizational issues and then turn to the economic questions
that have been on hold for months and even years. The
opposition continues to fight back, but its goals remain
unclear and we do not expect they will gain momentum until
the frigid winter weather turns warmer and more suitable for
protests. Even then, it will take money, organization and
unity ) commodities hard to find in Kyrgyzstan's opposition.

YOVANOVITCH