KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENT OPENS WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001525

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENT OPENS WHILE
OPPOSITION PONDERS NEXT STEPS

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: With Central Election Commission election
results showing opposition party Ata Meken not passing the
0.5% vote threshold in Osh city, the pro-presidential Ak Jol
party collected 71 out of 90 seats in the new Kyrgyz
parliament. The Social Democrats and Communists, which
polled suspiciously well in the last 101 of 2,235 precincts,
just surpassed vote threshold requirements to sweep up the
remaining 19 seats. Protest actions, some under the "I Don't
Believe" banner, have begun in Bishkek with hunger strikes
also taking place in Bishkek, Osh and Kemin. The new
parliament convened briefly on December 21 and is expected on
December 24 to begin deliberating on a new speaker, with
State Secretary Madumarov and Constitutional Court Chair
Bayekova leading the field. With President Bakiyev aiming
for a new government by year's end, attention also shifts to
possible prospects for the prime ministerial post: Energy
Minister Chudinov, Bishkek Mayor Usenov, Presidential Chief
of Staff Sadyrkulov and Acting Prime Minister Aidaraliyev.
While Presidnent Bakiyev's administration and parliament
begin looking forward, Ata Meken backers are looking to the
courts and potentially protests to signal their continued
challenge to the election results. End Summary.

Three Parties in Parliament
--------------


2. (C) On December 20, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
announced results of the December 16 Kyrgyz parliamentary
elections with news that the pro-presidential Ak Jol party
received 71 seats, the Social Democrats (SDPK) gained 11
seats and the Communists secured 8 seats out of a total of

90. The main opposition party, Ata Meken, failed to gain
seats, ostensibly the CEC explained, because Ata Meken, which
exceeded the 5% nationwide threshold, failed to breach the
0.5% threshold in Osh city. NDI representative Scott Kearin
(Amcit, please protect) told Embassy December 20 that local
NGO Taza Shailoo planned to bring about 80 Osh city precinct
protocols to Bishkek December 21 that reportedly prove Ata
Meken passed the 0.5% Osh city threshold. (Comment: It
strains credulity that Ata Meken did not receive at least 650
votes in Osh city; Ata Meken and NGOs claim they received
3,000. End comment.)


3. (SBU) Interestingly, data from the last 101 of the 2,235
precinct election commissions (PEC) to report added
sufficient numbers of votes to the SDPK and Communist party
totals to surpass the 5% national barrier. The Communists
did really well in the last 101 precincts, adding 67,204
votes to the 73,830 votes they garnered in the other 2,134
precincts. The CEC, dismissing opposition complaints of
irregularities in the vote count, rapidly issued new
parliamentary identifications in time for the December 21
meeting of parliament.

Minor Protest Actions
--------------


4. (C) An Interior Ministry official confided to Embassy
December 20 that protest actions against the election results
in Osh, Bishkek and elsewhere will force police personnel to
remain on "high alert for a long time." About 20 protestors,
assembling under the "I Don,t Believe" banner were detained
December 17 in Bishkek, forced to sign confessions that they
violated a city code concerning rallies and ordered to attend
December 21 court hearings. A group of 31 people (including
some detained December 17),including two journalists, were
detained December 20. Court proceedings resulted in jail
sentences of 5-7 days for 11 protestors, with five others
obliged to pay minor fines. Other cases are pending. Some
opposition politicians have been taking food to the detained

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protestors. Additional Ata Meken supporters in Bishkek, Osh
and Kemin have started hunger strikes.

Parliament Convenes
--------------


5. (C) The new parliament convened briefly on December 21
and vowed to formulate parliamentary factions, elect a
speaker, and nominate a prime ministerial candidate no later
than December 28. Embassy interlocutors December 20
speculated that State Secretary Madumarov, Constitutional
Court Chair Bayekova or re-elected MP Kurmanov might become
speaker. MP Kubanychbek Isabekov has suggested that Ak Jol
co-leader Elmira Ibraimova would head the Ak Jol faction in
parliament, and said that prime ministerial nominations would
be delayed until parliamentary structures are finalized.
With the new party structure, some MPs and outside observers
are now questioning how efficiently party discipline among
the majority Ak Jol camp will be maintained. MP Kurmanov
told Embassy December 20 that if the "big bosses" become too
persistent in their views, then he will "leave." Parliament
will reconvene December 24.

Prospects for a New Prime Minister
--------------


6. (C) While parliament gets settled, attention is now
focusing again on prime ministerial hopefuls: Energy Minister
Chudinov, Bishkek Mayor Usenov, Presidential Chief of Staff
Sadyrkulov and Acting Prime Minister Aidaraliyev as well as
darkhouse prospects like former MP Kubanychbek Isabekov and
State Property Fund Chair Turdumambetov. Chudinov, an ethnic
Russian with no clan loyalties but strong influence in the
energy and industry sector and reported ties to the Bakiyev
family, has long been rumored to be a top candidate for the
position. Usenov, who was only recently installed as
Bishkek's mayor, may have too many opponents at senior levels
to move up to the prime ministerial slot; the same may be
true for Sadyrkulov. Aidaraliyev, brought to his current
position to aid in the elections, may, like many other recent
occupants of the post, have already fulfilled his purpose. A
decision may come shortly as President Bakiyev has expressed
his interest in having a government formed by year's end.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The Kyrgyz White House and other senior government
officials are moving forward with their plans for the new
parliament. However, Ata Meken, some NGO's and possibly
other political parties may have other plans. Ata Meken
leaders have stated they seek to utilize the courts to
challenge the election results, but it is not clear what
their ultimate aim is; Ata Meken leaders have also said they
would not accept their mandates since the elections are
flawed. Ata Meken leader Tekebayev's announcement December
21 that he has "joined" the "I Don't Believe" movement could
signal a second front in opposition activism against the
election results. While we have not seen any developments
that signal trouble on the horizon, particularly given the
snow and cold gripping the country, Tekebayev has called for
opposition supporters to don red ribbons December 24. Post
will continue to monitor developments.

YOVANOVITCH