Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1509
2007-12-18 13:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: SUPREME COURT CANCELS REGIONAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001509 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: SUPREME COURT CANCELS REGIONAL
THRESHOLD

REF: BISHKEK 1505

BISHKEK 00001509 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001509

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: SUPREME COURT CANCELS REGIONAL
THRESHOLD

REF: BISHKEK 1505

BISHKEK 00001509 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Kyrgyz Supreme Court annulled the
Central Election Commission's (CEC) interpretation of the
0.5% regional threshold December 18. The CEC had previously
based the 0.5% threshold on the national voter list, meaning
a party needed to gather 13,500 votes in each of the seven
oblasts as well as Bishkek and Osh. This court ruling now
should permit parties that obtained 0.5% of the vote based on
regional voter lists to receive seats in parliament. With
final vote totals still unreleased by the CEC, it remains to
be seen how the Court's decision will affect the final
results. Only two days before the new parliament must be
seated and with backdoor negotiations amongst Ata Meken,
Social Democratic and Kyrgyz White House representatives
reportedly underway, the final composition of the next
parliament is still uncertain. The threat of demonstrations
could also influence the CEC's final vote tally, scheduled to
be announced by December 20. END SUMMARY.

BREAKING DOWN THE WALL
--------------


2. (C) The Supreme Court struck down the Central Election
Commission's interpretation of the 0.5% regional threshold
December 18, invalidating the administrative barrier that
effectively shut out all parties except Ak Jol from the new
parliament. Instead of calculating the threshold based on
the nationwide list of voters as the CEC had held, the
regional threshold will now be determined as 0.5% of the
registered voters in the particular oblast or city. With
final vote tabulations still being made, however, it is too
early to determine which parties will cross that threshold.
In particular, it is not clear whether Ata Meken (which
received the second highest number of total votes after the
pro-presidential Ak Jol party) meets the lower 0.5% threshold
in Osh city. A press report December 17 indicated that Ata
Meken had received only 620 votes in Osh city, with 75% of
the precincts reporting. Under the new interpretation of the
threshold, 649 votes would be required in Osh city. Backdoor
negotiations between Ata Meken, the Social Democratic Party
and Kyrgyz White House representatives may also affect the
final results.

OPPOSITION PARTIES STILL CRYING FOUL
--------------


3. (SBU) In spite of the Court's decision, opposition parties
continue to challenge the legitimacy of the December 16
elections. Ata Meken supporters have taken to the streets in
the southern city of Jalalabad, and small-scale rallies have
erupted in other cities, including Bishkek. Additionally,
the threat of demonstrations by other political parties,
including Asaba, may affect the final tabulation of votes,
slated to be announced no later than December 20. Parliament
must be seated by December 21.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) While the Supreme Court announced the decision to
overturn the CEC's interpretation of the 0.5% regional
threshold, this is a decision that was well-advertised in
advance and was made behind closed doors in the executive
branch. The decision paves the way for the possibility of
some opposition representation in parliament. However, it is
rumored that Ata Meken may refuse to accept the mandates; the
party has already denounced the elections as invalid and
called for a recount at certain polling stations. More
closed door negotiations will determine the next steps of

BISHKEK 00001509 002.2 OF 002


both Ata Meken and the White House. The possibility of
serious demonstrations will no doubt influence the political
calculus at the White House. We expect that this part of the
political process will come to a close no later than December
19, but more likely on December 18, and that parliament will
hold its first session on December 21. END COMMENT.

YOVANOVITCH