Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1505
2007-12-18 02:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW AK JOL

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001505 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW AK JOL
LANDSLIDE; NUMEROUS VIOLATIONS REPORTED

REF: A. BIHSKEK 1504

B. BISHKEK 1486

BISHKEK 00001505 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001505

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW AK JOL
LANDSLIDE; NUMEROUS VIOLATIONS REPORTED

REF: A. BIHSKEK 1504

B. BISHKEK 1486

BISHKEK 00001505 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission
(CEC) announced preliminary results showing that the
pro-presidential Ak Jol party received enough votes to pass
the nationwide and regional thresholds in the December 16
parliamentary elections. The opposition Ata Meken passed the
nationwide threshold, but failed to cross the regional
threshold in three regions of the country. The nationwide
threshold is 5% of registered voters, or approximately
135,000 votes; the regional threshold is 0.5% of registered
voters, or approximately 13,500 votes in each of seven
oblasts and the cities of Bishkek and Osh. However, the
Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case December 18
challenging the regional threshold, which leaves the final
"results" in question. In addition, there are credible
reports that the White House is now negotiating with the
opposition Ata Meken and Social Democratic parties, which may
also affect "the results."


2. (SBU) The voting was marked by widespread and credible
reports of fraud, manipulation, intimidation of independent
observers, and problems with the voter lists. The OSCE/ODIHR
Election Observation Mission concluded that the election
process failed to meet international standards, citing
numerous problems with the performance of the CEC and the
conduct of polling. Kyrgyz political parties and domestic
observers listed numerous violations, and Embassy observers
also witnessed serious violations and vote fraud. Not
surprisingly, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) observers immediately
pronounced the elections free, fair, and transparent. END
SUMMARY.

CEC Announces Preliminary Results
--------------


3. (SBU) The CEC announced that with 95% of the precincts
reporting in the December 16 parliamentary elections, the
pro-presidential Ak Jol party was leading with 1,260,810

votes, or over 48% of registered voters nationwide. In
second place was the opposition Ata Meken party, which polled
224,590 votes, or approximately 8.7% of registered voters.
The Social Democratic Party's vote total represented 4.3% of
registered voters, while the Party of Communists was in
fourth place with 2.9% of registered voters. (Note: We
presume that the CEC is reporting percentages in terms of
registered voters because the thresholds are calculated based
on the nationwide register of voters. Ak Jol has received
over 67% of the votes tabulated. End Note.) The CEC claimed
that the turnout was an improbably high 83%.


4. (SBU) The CEC announced that Ak Jol had passed both the
nationwide 5% threshold, as well as the 0.5% regional
threshold. Ata Meken had passed the nationwide threshold,
but failed to pass the regional threshold in at least three
districts, the CEC reported. None of the other ten parties
running had crossed either threshold. The CEC expects to
announce final totals on December 18.

Court Challenge Pending
--------------


5. (C) The Kyrgyz Supreme Court is scheduled to hear an
appeal December 18 on the CEC's interpretation that the 0.5%
regional threshold be calculated from the national list of
registered voters. The Ak Jol party brought the initial
legal challenge to the threshold, but on November 30 a
Bishkek District Court upheld the CEC's interpretation. Ak
Jol later appealed the decision, possibly because it was

BISHKEK 00001505 002.2 OF 002


concerned that it might not pass the threshold in sparsely
populated Talas oblast, or possibly because the
administration wanted the option to cancel the regional
threshold if it decided to let other parties into parliament.
As of last week, the administration was considering
abolishing the regional threshold (Ref B).

Observers Note Serious Violations
--------------


6. (C) Domestic and international observers reported
widespread violations during the voting and counting
processes. The OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission
issued a critical statement of preliminary findings, noting
that the Kyrgyz Republic failed to meet a number of OSCE
commitments, and there had been "backsliding in the elections
process." Domestic observers reported abuses of the early
voting process, ballot stuffing, intimidation of independent
observers, and problems with the voter list. Apparently
reporting from a parallel universe, observation missions from
the CIS and SCO pronounced the elections free, fair, and
transparent.


7. (C) The Embassy fielded 14 teams throughout the country to
observe the elections. Embassy observers noted many of the
same violations reported by the independent observers,
including problems with the voter lists. We talked to many
voters who were told they could not vote because their names
did not appear on the election day voter list; many of these
people had voted in the October referendum and had received
invitations to vote in these elections (meaning that their
names had been on the voter lists recently). Over 1000
people in Bishkek appealed to the courts to be added to the
voter list on election day, many waiting up to 4 hours for a
court decision. An incident we witnessed in one precinct
could serve as a metaphor for free elections in Kyrgyzstan:
after the ballots had been dumped on the table, local
apparatchiks turned out the lights. (Note: When the lights
came back on, embassy observers saw what appeared to be a
pile of additional ballots on the table. At this particular
precinct, domestic monitors had counted 370 to 378 voters
during the day; the final official count showed 1330 votes
cast. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections are far from
over. Asaba party leader Beknazarov complained publicly that
Ata Meken and the Social Democrats were negotiating with the
White House to make a deal on the 0.5% threshold.
Kyrgyzstan's Supreme Court is not an independent actor, and
the outcome of the challenge to the regional threshold will
be determined by just how far the administration wants to go
in letting the opposition participate. The extent to which
the resulting "deal" does or does not disenfranchise large
numbers of voters will likely be critical to the country's
political stability over the next several months.
YOVANOVITCH