Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1486
2007-12-13 13:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO CRY

Tags:  PGOV PREL MARR KG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001486 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO CRY
FOUL

REF: A. BISHKEK 1478

B. BISHKEK 1441

C. BISHKEK 1424

D. BISHKEK 1419

E. BISHKEK 1402

BISHKEK 00001486 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001486

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO CRY
FOUL

REF: A. BISHKEK 1478

B. BISHKEK 1441

C. BISHKEK 1424

D. BISHKEK 1419

E. BISHKEK 1402

BISHKEK 00001486 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ahead of the December 16 parliamentary
elections, senior government officials acknowledge the use of
administrative resources to support the pro-presidential Ak
Jol party, but attribute excesses against the opposition to
over-zealous local officials. The controversial 0.5%
regional threshold (which would require a party to get
approximately 13,500 votes in each of the seven oblasts and
in the cities of Bishkek and Osh) may be struck down by the
courts, but possibly not until after the election. Leaders
of the opposition Ata Meken party complain that the
government has effectively blocked them from reaching voters,
particularly in the southern regions. Some of the smaller
parties tell us they lack the resources to compete with Ak
Jol and Ata Meken and have little chance of entering
parliament if the 0.5% threshold stands. END SUMMARY.

FM: Don't Rush to Judgment
--------------


2. (C) Foreign Minister Karabayev said to the Ambassador on
December 13 that there had been numerous violations during
the campaign by both the pro-government and opposition
parties. He acknowledged that there had been pressure
against the opposition, as well as the use of administrative
resources to support Ak Jol. He reasoned that some of this
was inevitable, as Kyrgyzstan grappled for the first time
with parliamentary elections entirely by party list, but that
Kyrgyzstan was still a democratic country. He asked that we
not rush to judgment about the elections, and that any public
statement be balanced and fair. Presidential foreign policy
advisor Ryskulov told the Ambassador on December 12 that
these elections would promote stability in the country. He
too acknowledged the use of administrative resources and
other violations, but he asserted that the problems were
coming from over-zealous local officials and were not the

result of orders from the top.

Bogatyrov: Court May Cancel Regional Threshold
-------------- --


3. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador December 13,
political analyst and administration insider Valentin
Bogatyrov expanded on his recent press interviews suggesting
that the controversial 0.5% regional threshold would lead to
a one-party parliament (Ref A). Bogatyrov said he had warned
administration officials, including President Bakiyev, that a
victory for Ak Jol under such circumstances would be a
Pyrrhic victory, because it would give the opposition grounds
to protest. He said he went public with his views because
"many around the president" want a total victory for Ak Jol.
Bogatyrov outlined two scenarios for striking down the
threshold -- either the court challenge would be taken to the
Supreme Court or President Bakiyev would appeal to the
Central Election Commission (CEC) to reverse its decision --
but this "show" would not happen until December 18 or 19,
after the December 16 vote. (Comment: Bogatyrov is often
right in the scenarios he presents, and we think there is a
strong chance he was presenting the current White House plan.
End comment.)

Opposition Criticism of Ak Jol Intensifies
--------------


4. (C) Ata Meken party leaders blasted Ak Jol during a press
conference December 13, accusing the Bakiyev-backed party of

BISHKEK 00001486 002.2 OF 003


ignoring laws that prohibit the use of state resources for
campaign purposes. They also called the entire campaign a
farce, and demanded free and fair elections. Ex-Vice Speaker
Erkin Alimbekov said that, after traveling throughout the
country, he found that Ata Meken had no less than 70% of the
people's support in each region. He added that, if Ata Meken
did not receive a similar percentage of the vote on election
day, the results would be challenged. Ex-MPs Timur Sariyev
and Bolotbek Baibolov also made it clear that steps, although
undefined, would be taken to oppose the government's actions,
should they find that the vote was manipulated in Ak Jol's
favor. Separately, Adilet Legal Clinic director and Ata
Meken party candidate Cholpon Jakupova told Poloff that the
government had broken essentially every law in the book to
ensure success for Ak Jol. She also lambasted President
Bakiyev personally for ignoring the rule of law and allowing
a wholesale abuse of power by those loyal to his party.


5. (C) Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebayev shared separately
with the Ambassador December 13 his misgivings about Ak Jol's
tactics and the government's abuse of power, noting that Ata
Meken has effectively been shut out of Batken oblast -- a
region where Bakiyev and his supporters have the most
control. Tekebayev said that the government had detained the
truck carrying Ata Meken's campaign literature for the remote
oblast, and police had prohibited the use of loudspeakers
throughout the country. (Note: With two days left in the
campaign, the Prosecutor General said there was no legal
basis for the prohibition on loudspeakers. End Note)


6. (C) Tekebayev complained to the Ambassador that his party
had been shut out of television. He criticized
state-controlled TV and radio station KTR for claiming he
insulted its top management while attempting to purchase
airtime for Ata Meken, but was proud that he passed a
lie-detector test apparently proving his side of the story.
He went on to say that anti-government demonstrations could
occur if the vote is manipulated to keep Ata Meken out of the
next parliament. He also promised that Ata Meken would
become more radical should the vote be deemed illegitimate,
and said, "If we're shut out of parliament, we'll create a
scandal." (Comment: Despite the litany of complaints,
Tekebayev exuded cheery optimism. He noted that he had met
recently with presidential chief of staff Sadyrkulov to
discuss the ongoing campaign and ex-PM Atambayev's ouster.
If the putative leader of the opposition is meeting with one
of the president's chief strategists in the middle of the
campaign, there is a good chance that deals are being
discussed. End comment.)

Smaller Parties Down and Out, but Still Running
-------------- --


7. (C) Poloff met separately with ex-MPs Arslanbek Maliyev,
head of the Aalam (Universe) party, and Bolot Maripov, head
of the Glas Naroda (Voice of the People) party, who presented
similar assessments of the campaign. Each of them said that
their chances of election to the next parliament were slim,
due to their inability to compete financially with the more
affluent Ak Jol and Ata Meken parties. They also expressed
doubt that their parties would be able to surpass the 0.5%
regional threshold, as interpreted by the CEC. Each accused
the Bakiyev-backed Ak Jol party of using government resources
for campaign purposes, and they were certain that state funds
would also be used to buy votes. Similarly, they also
criticized Ata Meken and its "oligarch" leaders for buying
support, noting that they were just as corrupt as Ak Jol.
Despite the financial and legal obstacles, however, Maliyev
and Maripov seemed willing to continue their campaigns,
although each was aware of their limited chances of actually
winning any seats. (Comment: Maripov exuded confidence
throughout the meeting. Maripov is seen as a Bakiyev
loyalist, and there have been rumors that his Glas Naroda

BISHKEK 00001486 003.2 OF 003


party might receive a few seats in a multi-party parliament.
End comment.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Bogatyrov's scenario indicates the Administration may
finally be realizing that it has over-engineered the vote to
the extent that the threshold could back-fire on Ak Jol. The
opposition is effectively publicizing the growing litany of
election violations by Ak Jol and the Administration, but
appears nevertheless committed to participate in the process,
and there is no support for boycotting the election.
Meanwhile, those candidates with little hope of getting into
parliament are seeing to broker deals with Bakiyev's
entourage to guarantee some kind of political future after
December 16.
YOVANOVITCH