KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: CHARGES OF INTIMIDATION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001478

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: CHARGES OF INTIMIDATION AND
BIAS

REF: A. BISHKEK 1441


B. BISHKEK 1424

C. BISHKEK 1419

D. BISHKEK 1402

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Classified By: Pol-Econ Chief Robert Burgess, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: With the vote scheduled for December 16,
accusations of the misuse of administrative resources,
intimidation of government opponents, and continued
controversy over the 0.5% regional threshold dominate the
last days of the campaign. Government employees have been
pressured to join the pro-presidential Ak Jol party, and
government ministers have turned official events into de
facto Ak Jol rallies. State television has been heavily
pro-Ak Jol in its coverage, and the required free air time
for all parties has been limited to the 11:00 pm time slot.
Court cases have been filed against the Social Democratic
Party, as well as against the Coalition of NGOs, which plans
to field a large number of domestic election observers.
Everyone believes that the results will be manipulated, and
there is speculation that deals are being cut to get 3 or 4
parties into parliament. In a sign that everything may not
be going according to plan, the administration is reportedly
now considering cancelling (via a court decision) the 0.5%
regional threshold that, if it stands, would make it
difficult for more than one or two parties to get into
parliament. END SUMMARY.

Administrative Resources for Ak Jol
--------------


2. (C) Opposition parties have complained about the
heavy-handed use of administrative resources in favor of the
pro-presidential Ak Jol party. Parties accused the Central
Election Commission (CEC) of bias for refusing to register
seven parties because of alleged technical faults with their
candidate lists. In one case, the CEC disqualified the
largely ethnic-Uzbek Rodina party because the CEC's
background check did not confirm the Kyrgyz citizenship of 16
candidates on the list; all 16 have Kyrgyz passports, and
included a former governor of Naryn oblast, an ex-member of
parliament, and a former GKNB colonel.


3. (C) Throughout the three-week campaign period which began
November 26 (Ref D),government ministers have traveled to
the regions, turning official events and openings into de
facto Ak Jol rallies, particularly in Talas and Naryn
oblasts. There are also credible reports that government
employees, including teachers and health care workers, have
been pressured to join the Ak Jol party, and that others have
been threatened with losing their jobs if they did not
campaign for Ak Jol.

State Media for Ak Jol
--------------


4. (C) The coverage of the election on state television (KTR)
has been heavily slanted in favor of Ak Jol. The OSCE/ODIHR
Election Observation Mission's media monitoring of television
news shows that 80% of election-related coverage on KTR has
focused on the president, the ministers, local officials and
Ak Jol. Ata Meken has received 4% of election related
coverage, but 75% of that was negative. There have been
continued complaints that KTR (as well as some private
channels) have refused to sell advertising time to opposition
parties during prime time hours.


5. (C) Kyrgyz election law requires that state media provide
free air time in equal shares to all parties participating in
the election. KTR and the CEC have taken a narrow
interpretation of this requirement, giving 6 hours on
television and 6 hours on radio, running simultaneously from

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11:00 pm to midnight for six days starting on December 4.
OSCE/ODIHR estimated that each party ended up with
approximately 25 minutes to get out its message. The CEC has
also blocked party debates on television, claiming that
having international organizations such as NDI or OSCE
sponsor a program would constitute foreign support to
political parties. (Note: The law in question contains an
exception for educational purposes, all parties would
participate, and KTR said it did not have "resources" to
sponsor the shows itself. End note.)


6. (C) While KTR is the only Kyrgyz television network with
nationwide coverage, the government has also apparently put
pressure on some smaller, private channels. NGO leader
Tolekan Ismailova charged December 10 that the government was
attempting to close particular private channels, by ordering
that Mezon-TV in Osh increase its amount of Kyrgyz-language
programming and requiring that the "September" television
station (affiliated with Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebayev)
move its antennas.

Intimidation through the Courts
--------------


7. (C) As a fallout from the ballot scandal (Ref A),the
Prosecutor General, at the urging of the CEC, brought suit
against the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) for
the costs of reprinting all ballots, approximately $580,000.
On December 11, a Bishkek court ruled that the SDPK was
liable, and it ordered the party's bank accounts frozen. The
SDPK is appealing the rulings.


8. (C) On December 10, two pro-governmental NGOs filed a
lawsuit against the Coalition of NGOs, charging that
Coalition-published voter education brochures contained false
information. The suit sought to have the Coalition's
activities suspended and bank accounts frozen; the Coalition
plans to field the largest team of domestic observers. At
the court hearing December 11, a CEC representative and
attorney worked with the two NGOs to try to build the case
against the Coalition; when it became clear that nothing that
the Coalition was alleged to have done violated any law or
regulation, the judge gave the NGOs time to re-draft their
complaint. Late in the day, the judge ordered the Coalition
to apologize publicly and cease distribution of the remaining
information materials.

Other Kinds of Intimidation
--------------


9. (C) Opposition parties have complained of harassment and
physical attacks on their members, particularly in the
regions. Jenishbek Nazaraliyev, lead candidate for the Asaba
party, announced December 12 that he was withdrawing his
candidacy and calling for a boycott of the elections. He had
earlier complained to us that his party's election chief for
the Issyk-Kul oblast had been badly beaten, and that the
party had faced other harassment, including the destruction
of billboards and other property. (Note: Asaba party
officials said that the party would continue to compete in
the elections. End Note.) The Ata Meken party has also
claimed that several of its regional electoral offices have
suffered break-ins, threats against workers, and harassment
from officials.

A Negative Preliminary Assessment
--------------


10. (C) Ambassador met December 11 with OSCE/ODIHR Election
Observation Mission head Nikolai Vulchanov, who presented a
fairly negative assessment of the process so far. On the
plus side, posters and signs for all parties were generally
allowed, and the CEC allows observers and the press at its

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plenary sessions. But he also listed a number of problems.
He said that the performance of the electoral administration
was the worst he had ever seen. Included in the list of
problems were the CEC's failure to register several parties
(including Rodina); the handling of the ballot scandal matter
(he said that the CEC had violated its rules and authorities
in taking Edil Baisalov off the ballot); and going after the
Social Democrats for the cost of reprinting ballots. Another
big concern is the Shailoo computer system. With this
system, voters can check their registration on line, and the
system can also report results from each polling station
almost immediately. The system functioned for the 2005
elections, but the CEC told Vulchanov that it was "not
possible this time" to use the system to report polling
station results.

Changing the Threshold?
--------------


11. (C) The 0.5% regional threshold, which would require a
party to get at least 13,500 votes in each of the seven
oblasts and in the cities of Bishkek and Osh, continues to be
a point of controversy. There are signs, however, that the
administration may cancel this requirement. The Ak Jol party
has submitted an appeal to an earlier court decision
upholding the threshold, and on December 10 Presidential
Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov told Vulchanov that they were
"still thinking" about the threshold requirement. Political
commentator Valentin Bogatyrov, who is close to the
administration, said in an interview published December 12
that it was possible that the court would cancel the
threshold. Maintaining the threshold, he reasoned, could
result in a one-party parliament, which would be
"catastrophic."

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Everyone believes that the results will be
manipulated. There are visible signs of the pressure being
exerted for Ak Jol, and we have heard reports of pressure
from candidates on the lower half of the Ak Jol list for an
Ak Jol sweep. However, we are also hearing speculation that
deals are being cut to get 3 or 4 parties into parliament,
but getting so many parties into parliament will be difficult
if the 0.5% threshold remains. We expect more surprises in
the final days before the December 16 vote.
YOVANOVITCH