OUSTED PRIME MINISTER COMMENTS ON KYRGYZ ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KG
SUBJECT: OUSTED PRIME MINISTER COMMENTS ON KYRGYZ ELECTIONS

REF: A. BISHKEK 1401

B. BISHKEK 1402

BISHKEK 00001419 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev told
Charge November 30 that President Bakiyev, by using state
resources to support the pro-presidential Ak Jol party in the
parliamentary election campaign, was repeating the mistakes
of former President Akayev in the 2005 elections. Atambayev,
who was fired by Bakiyev on November 28 (Ref A),said that if
the result was a one-party parliament, there would be a
"second revolution." Atambayev said that Bakiyev was a "nice
person," but he was being manipulated by sons and other
advisors and did not understand the potential consequences of
his actions. Atambayev, who appeared exhausted, said he
would first rest, and then participate in the campaign on
behalf of his Social Democratic Party. He said Bakiyev had
offered him other governmental positions, but he would not
consider any offer until after the December 16 elections.
END SUMMARY.

Repeating Akayev's Mistakes
--------------


2. (C) Former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev met with Charge
at the embassy November 30 to discuss his recent firing by
President Bakiyev (Ref A),as well as the parliamentary
election campaign (Ref B). Atambayev said he had warned the
president repeatedly that by using state resources and
authorizing violations in favor of his Ak Jol party, Bakiyev
was committing the same mistakes former President Akayev made
during the 2005 parliamentary elections. (Note: Fraudulent
parliamentary elections in February 2005 contributed
significantly to Akayev's ouster in the "tulip revolution" of
March 2005. End note.) Atambayev said that Bakiyev did not
realize the potential negative consequences of his actions,
including alienating parts of the country. For example,
Bakiyev had alienated many ethnic Uzbeks, Atambayev claimed,
by disqualifying on doubtful technical grounds the largely
ethnic-Uzbek Rodina party from the elections. By pushing to
give Ak Jol total control of parliament now, Bakiyev was
cutting his chances for re-election in 2010.

Bakiyev Being Manipulated
--------------


3. (C) Atambayev said repeatedly that Bakiyev was a "nice
person," and that his personal relationship with the
president was good. The problem, he said, was that he only
had access to Bakiyev once a week; others saw him five times
a day. Bakiyev was weak, lacked goals, and his abilities
were better suited to being a mayor of a small town. This
left Bakiyev a "marionette" to the manipulations of his sons,
Marat and Maxim, and other advisors. Atambayev said that
Bakiyev's sons wanted to create "another Turkmenistan" or
follow the model of Kazakhstan or Russia, but this was not
possible here because Kyrgyzstan was a "democratic country,"
and its democracy did not depend on the upcoming election --
it was in the nature of its people. Atambayev said that the
sons did not realize they were digging their father's
political grave. Atambayev also speculated that Russian
political advisors in the White House were deliberately
giving Bakiyev bad advice because Putin (and others) wanted
to see Bakiyev replaced.

Fixed Election Could Bring "Second Revolution"
-------------- -


4. (C) Atambayev said if the December 16 elections resulted
in a one-party (Ak Jol) parliament, then there would be a
"second revolution," maybe not in December, but possibly by
spring. Atambayev said a revolution would be inevitable if
his Social Democratic party got fewer than 25 seats and the

BISHKEK 00001419 002.2 OF 002


pro-opposition Ata Meken party was shut out of the 90-member
parliament. Atambayev feared that a rigged election could
result in "violence and bloodshed." He said that Bakiyev had
alienated many ethnic Uzbeks by barring the Rodina party from
the elections, and Asked about rumors of a demonstration
planned for December 16 on Bishkek's Ala-Too Square,
Atambayev lamented that the government was creating the
conditions for confrontation and the "radical opposition" was
preparing for it. He said that he would only observe such a
demonstration from a distance, but he did not think he could
stop his party's "rank and file" from participating.
Atambayev added that major issues "cannot be decided on the
square," and he was ready to play "peacemaker" once again.

Atambayev's Plans
--------------


5. (C) Atambayev was proud of his role in preventing a "war"
by becoming prime minister last March. He noted other
successes during his tenure, including the new agreement on
the Kumtor gold concession, which he claimed would net the
government an additional $1.5 billion. He thought inflation
would remain steady for the near term, and he had pushed with
the National Bank for a stronger som to help fight inflation.
He also was pleased about the good cooperation with USAID on
development projects.


6. (C) Atambayev said that he would take some rest, and then
he would participate in the campaign on behalf of his Social
Democratic Party. Atambayev added that some party members
were glad that he had been fired from the government, as now
they could speak freely. He said that if the Social
Democrats got 25 to 30 seats in the new parliament, they
would act as a "constructive opposition."


7. (C) Asked about the timing of his dismissal, Atambayev
said that Bakiyev had been "forced" to fire him. He claimed
that a recent public opinion poll had shown him to be more
popular than Bakiyev even in the south (though the results
had been falsified when the poll was published),and he
thought his dismissal might actually boost his standing --
"people here like victims." He said that Bakiyev had offered
him other positions in the government, including state
secretary and ambassador to Turkey, but he would not make a

SIPDIS
decision until after the elections.

On His Successor
--------------


8. (C) Of new Acting Prime Minister Iskender Aidaraliyev,
Atambayev said he was a "weak person," but "decent and not a
thief." He said that he had tried to bring Aidaraliyev in as
first deputy prime minister four months ago. Atambayev said
that he had spoken to Aidaraliyev about the good cooperation
he had enjoyed with USAID, and that the cooperation would
continue.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Atambayev was exhausted. He acknowledged that many
colleagues from the government had called on him yesterday,
with drinks lasting late into the night, and he was clearly
still recovering this afternoon. Atambayev sees himself
continuing to play an important role, whether as
"constructive opposition," or as a peacemaker. Whatever his
role, Atambayev reiterated several times that he wanted to
support democracy in Kyrgyzstan.
LITZENBERGER