Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1402
2007-11-28 13:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGNING BEGINS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KG 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001402 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGNING BEGINS

REF: A. BISHKEK 1401

B. BISHKEK 1366

C. BISHKEK 1342

BISHKEK 00001402 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001402

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGNING BEGINS

REF: A. BISHKEK 1401

B. BISHKEK 1366

C. BISHKEK 1342

BISHKEK 00001402 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The official campaign period for
Kyrgyzstan's early parliamentary elections opened November 26
with billboards, media ads, and public events. On November
25, the Central Election Commission (CEC) completed the
registrations of 12 parties to appear on the ballot; 10
parties were disqualified for not meeting all registration
requirements. The December 16 election will be conducted
entirely by party lists, and parties must pass a threshold of
5% of registered voters nationwide, as well as 0.5% in each
of the seven oblasts, in Bishkek, and in Osh. On November
19, the CEC announced that the regional threshold would be
calculated based on the total number of voters nationwide,
meaning that parties would need to get approximately 13,500
votes in each region, an extremely high barrier in the less
populated oblasts. OSCE/ODIHR has deployed 32 long-term
international observers around the country, and it is
preparing for up to 250 short-term observers for the polling.
In other developments related to the elections, President
Bakiyev dismissed Prime Minister Atambayev, Osh Governor
Satybaldiyev, and Minister of Education Osmonaliyev (Ref A).
End Summary.

The Campaign Begins
--------------


2. (SBU) The official campaign period for Kyrgyzstan's early
parliamentary elections opened on November 26, with the
unveiling of billboards, numerous advertisements in the
media, and a few public events. State television will
provide free air time to the parties for half-hour debates
during December 10-13 (with three parties participating in
each debate),and there will be some additional free time for
individual campaign messages. Several parties, however, have
complained that for paid advertisements, state television is
reserving prime-time slots for the pro-presidential Ak Jol
party, while relegating their ads to less popular hours.
There have also been reports that some local officials have

refused to allow pro-opposition billboards to go up.

A Threshold or Barrier?
--------------


3. (SBU) The most controversial issue in the campaign
revolves around the interpretation of the two thresholds that
parties must cross to enter parliament. Parties must get at
least 5% of the number of voters (not number of votes cast)
registered nationwide, which is approximately 2.7 million.
Parties also face a 0.5% threshold in each of the seven
oblasts, in Bishkek, and in Osh City. On November 19, the
CEC announced that the 0.5% threshold would be based on the
nationwide list of voters, meaning that a party would have to
get approximately 13,500 votes in each of the designated
regions. This interpretation of the law creates an extremely
high and disproportionate barrier, especially in the less
populated regions. For example, Talas Oblast has only
120,000 registered voters, Osh City 132,000, and Naryn Oblast
143,000.


4. (C) Ten parties petitioned President Bakiyev to overturn
the CEC's interpretation, but Bakiyev declined to do so, his
spokesman saying he wouldn't "interfere" in the process.
Ironically, Bakiyev's Ak Jol party took the matter to court,
but on November 28 a Bishkek court upheld the CEC's
interpretation of the electoral code. Several government
officials, however, have defended 0.5% barrier and the CEC's
interpretation. CEC Chair Klara Kabilova told us that the
high regional threshold was necessary to strengthen national
parties and prevent regionalism.

BISHKEK 00001402 002.2 OF 003



Twelve Parties on the Ballot
--------------


5. (U) On November 25, the CEC completed registration for 12
parties to participate in the election. Ten parties that
applied for registration were disqualified by the CEC for
various technical reasons, including some for not following
election code requirements about the number of women, ethnic
minorities, and youth on the party list. Several of these
disqualified parties, including Rodina and the Communist
Party, plan to appeal their disqualifications in court.


6. (U) The parties drew lots for their order on the ballot.
The party names and top five candidates will appear in the
following order:

1) "Ata-Meken" socialist party: Omurbek Tekebayev, Kubatbek
Baibolov, Temir Sariyev, Tatyana Ponomaryova, and Duishenkul
Chotonov;

2) "Erkindik" party: Topchubek Turgunaliyev, Moidun
Namadjanov, Bubusara Orozbekova, Kamal Sooronkulov, and
Noomajan Arkabayev;

3) "New Force" party of women and youth: Tokon Shailiyeva,
Lyubov Safonova, Taalaibek Sagynov, Aleksey Chikayev, and
Svetlana Moldogaziyeva;

4) "Turan" democratic party: Taiyrbek Sarpashev, Kanybek
Imanaliyev, Okmotbek Almakuchukov, Nelya Beishenaliyeva, and
Alymbek Chatkalbayev;

5) "Ar-Namys" political party: Felix Kulov, Valery Dil,
Bodosh Mamyrova, Anvar Artykov, and Emil Aliyev;

6) Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan: Omurbek Babanov,
Bakyt Beshimov, Ruslan Shabotoyev, Irina Karamushkina, and
Osmon Artykbayev;

7) "Erkin Kyrgyzstan" political party: Tursunbay Bakir uulu,
Kylych Sultanov, Rashatbek Kamalov, Pazilet Tajibayeva, and
Meder Usenov;

8) "Glas Naroda" (Voice of the People) political party:
Bolot Maripov, Taiyrbek Borbugulov, Jenishbek Baigitiyev,
Auinura Altybayeva, and Aibek Chokoshev;

9) "Aalam" party of non-partisans: Arslanbek Maliyev,
Gulmira Shakirova, Sultan Maganbetov, Tanabar
Sultankhodjayeva, and Gani Asanaliyev;

10) "Asaba" party of national revival: Jenishbek
Nazaraliyev, Azimbek Beknazarov, Roza Nurmatova, Alevtina
Pronenko, and Dooronbek Sadyrbayev;

11) "Ak Jol" People,s party: Cholpon Bayekova, Adakham
Madumarov, Vladimir Nifadyev, Ernst Akramov, and Elmira
Ibraimova.

12) Party of Communists of Kyrgyzstan: Iskhak Masaliyev,
Nikolay Bailo, Beishen Akunov, Bulmairam Mamaseitova, and
Ainash Seitkaziyev.

International Observers Arrive
--------------


7. (C) The Kyrgyz government invited the OSCE and other
international organizations to observe the parliamentary
elections. OSCE/ODIHR is deploying a standard Election
Observation Mission (EOM) to assess the elections.
Thirty-two long-term observers were deployed over the weekend
of November 24-25 to all regions of the country, and
OSCE/ODIHR hopes to field up to 250 short-term observers for

BISHKEK 00001402 003.2 OF 003


the polling. EOM Head Nikolai Vulchanov told us that his
team had received good cooperation from Kyrgyz government and
election officials, but he already had a number of potential
concerns about the fairness of the process, including the
high thresholds, possible restrictions on statements by
observers prior to the vote, and whether the CEC would use
the "Shailoo" computer system to report election results by
precinct. (Note: The CEC did not report results on a
precinct level for the October constitutional referendum.
End Note.) The Embassy is also planning to deploy up to 20
teams to observe the voting.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The regional threshold will serve as a barrier to most
parties, and it will give the CEC a tool with which to
exclude a party that polls well across the country but may
fail in one region. Even in a clean election, only a few
parties -- and probably only one or two -- would cross such
high thresholds. But the government may be tempted to
overplay its already strong hand; we have heard that several
candidates on the lower half of the Ak Jol list are pushing
hard for Ak Jol to take all of the seats. As OSCE Bishkek
Office Head Ambassador Mueller noted, the question is not
whether the government will manipulate these elections, but
whether it will manipulate wisely, allowing a multi-party
parliament with a divergence of views, or whether it will
manipulate foolishly, creating a one-party parliament. A
one-party parliament would leave a large number of voters
unrepresented in parliament, laying the grounds for future
protests or instability.
LITZENBERGER