KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OUSTS PM ATAMBAYEV AHEAD OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001401

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OUSTS PM ATAMBAYEV AHEAD OF
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

BISHKEK 00001401 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lee Litzenberger for Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) Summary: On November 28, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev
dismissed Acting Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev. The post
will likely remain vacant until after the December 16
parliamentary elections. The move came the day after
Jalalabad oblast governor Iskender Aidaraliyev's appointment
as first vice prime minister. Aidaraliyev will manage the
cabinet until after the elections, when many observers
speculate that Bakiyev's Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov or
Minister of Energy Chudinov could be selected for the prime
ministerial post. In other personnel shuffles, Bakiyev
dismissed Osh Oblast governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev, replacing
him with a presidential administration staffer. Bakiyev also
replaced Minister of Education Osmonaliyev with the more
politically loyal former minister, Ishengul Boljurova. The
timing of these personnel moves reinforces concerns that
Bakiyev is removing obstacles to the use of administrative
resources, in violation of the election code, to support his
Ak Jol party during the campaign. End Summary.

Time for a Vacancy in the Prime Minister's Office
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dismissed Acting
Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev November 28 with a
suggestion that Atambayev "rest" after having "completed" his
work. As his dismissal comes three days after the final
registration of party lists for the December 16 parliamentary
elections, Atambayev will not be eligible to stand as a
candidate in the elections. Atambayev departed office with
gracious words for Bakiyev, but in recent days he had warned
publicly about the dangers to the country of using
administrative resources and vote falsifications to achieve a
one-party parliament. Edil Baisalov, General Secretary of
Atambayev's Social Democratic Party (SDP),put a more
positive spin on the dismissal by stating that Atambayev
would remain a "nationwide leader."


3. (SBU) Atambayev's dismissal comes one day after President
Bakiyev appointed Jalalabad Governor Iskenderbek Aidaraliyev
acting first vice prime minister -) a position which
oversees economic portfolios and which had been vacant for
nearly six months. Aidaraliyev will lead the cabinet until a
new government is formed following the December 16
parliamentary elections. Possible contenders for the
post-elections prime ministerial slot include Bakiyev's Chief
of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov; Minister of Energy, Industry and
Fuel Resources Igor Chudinov; State Property Fund director
Almazbek Imanaliyev; and former parliamentarian and
pro-Bakiyev Ak Jol party list candidate Askar Salymbekov.

Shuffling Governors
--------------


4. (C) Within hours of his promotion, Aidaraliyev called Osh
Governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev to a televised meeting where he
fired Satybaldiyev, and announced presidential administration
staffer Aaly Karashev as the new governor. A shocked
Satybaldiyev denied alleged improprieties, leaked earlier in
the day, in the resale of cement and slate stockpiles.
Satybaldiyev had been a prominent member of the political
opposition prior to his appointment as governor. Following
his appointment, though publicly quiet, Satybaldiyev remained
critical of Bakiyev in private conversations and was a valued
Embassy contact. Meanwhile, President Bakiyev appointed
Koshbai Masirov, a previously lower-profile official as the
new Jalalabad governor. (Note: Osh and Jalalabad oblasts
represent Bakiyev's political base. End note.)

Educating the Youth (to Vote for Ak Jol?)

BISHKEK 00001401 002.2 OF 002


--------------


5. (C) President Bakiyev also dismissed Acting Minister of
Education and Science Kanybek Osmonaliyev November 27.
Osmonaliyev, a respected technocract, has been replaced by
Ishenkul Bolzhurova, a former minister noted for her
political loyalty. With the November 26 launch of election
campaigning and the pro-Bakiyev Ak Jol's courting of the
youth vote, Bolzhurova's appointment could result in
increased pressure on voting-age students to rally for Ak Jol
candidates.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The timing of Atambayev's dismissal and other
personnel changes is clearly tied to the December 16
parliamentary elections. If Atambayev had thought that his
public loyalty to Bakiyev would be repaid with re-appointment
as prime minister, he was mistaken. Atambayev risked his
position in the government when he warned about the dangers
of a one-party parliament. Bakiyev could have kept Atambayev
in his post through the elections, but has decided Atambayev
is expendable. Atambayev, who lost significant support among
his co-oppositionists when he accepted the prime ministerial
post earlier this year, may find himself and his SDP isolated
from both Bakiyev's backers and the opposition, although
there is traditional sympathy for political martyrs, and
Atambayev is now free to voice his criticism of Bakiyev. The
timing of Bakiyev's other personnel moves can be seen as
removing potential obstacles to the use of administrative
resources to support his Ak Jol party in the campaign, in
violation of the election code. The timing, after party
lists were officially registered and could not be changed,
ensures that none of those fired can run for parliament. End
Comment.

LITZENBERGER