KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: A GUIDE TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001366

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: A GUIDE TO THE
CONTENDING PARTIES

REF: BISHKEK 1342

BISHKEK 00001366 001.4 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan will hold early parliamentary
elections on December 16. For the first time, election to
parliament will be solely on a proportional basis by party
list. The new electoral code sets an extremely high
threshold for a party to enter parliament: 5% of all
registered voters nationwide and 0.5% of all registered
voters in each of the seven oblasts, in Bishkek, and in Osh.
Even though 50 parties (out of over 100 established parties)
have registered for participation, probably fewer than half a
dozen stand a chance of getting seats: President Bakiyev's
new Ak Jol party; Prime Minister Atambayev's Social
Democrats; pro-opposition Ata-Meken; the Kyrgyz nationalist
Asaba party; and the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan. END
SUMMARY.

For the First Time: Election by Party List Only
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) The December 16 parliamentary elections will -- for
the first time in Kyrgyzstan -- be conducted entirely on a
proportional basis by party list; parties did not play a role
in the previous parliament. Kyrgyzstan has numerous
personality-based political parties, without clear platforms
or deep organizational structures, and the call for snap
elections caught most of these parties unprepared to conduct
a nationwide contest on their own. As a result, a number of
smaller parties rushed to join President Bakiyev's newly
formed Ak Jol party, and some individual politicians have
demonstrated their "political flexibility" by switching party
affiliations. Parties must submit their candidate lists to
the Central Election Committee by November 18, and the
competition for the top slots on the lists has reportedly
been fierce (and expensive). The campaign, which begins
officially on November 26, will likely have little to do with
party platforms and ideas, but will focus on personalities
and regional and clan ties.


3. (SBU) Fifty political parties (out of over 100 established
parties in the country) have registered their intention to
run, but many are likely to drop out by November 18, when
parties must finalize their lists, which must contain a
minimum of 90 and maximum of 100 names and meet criteria on
gender, age, and ethnic representation. In addition to
submitting their lists, parties must put up a 500,000 som
(over $14,000) deposit, which will be a substantial hurdle
for smaller parties.


4. (SBU) However many parties run, probably fewer than a half
dozen stand a realistic chance of entering parliament. The
electoral code establishes extremely high thresholds for
entering parliament: a party must get at least 5% of the
number of registered voters (not 5% of the number of votes
cast) nationwide and at least 0.5% of the number of
registered voters in each of the seven oblasts, in Bishkek,
and in Osh. The parties with a realistic chance of entering
the new parliament are: President Bakiyev's new Ak Jol
party; Prime Minister Atambayev's Social Democrats;
pro-opposition Ata-Meken; the Kyrgyz nationalist Asaba party;
and the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan.


5. (SBU) There is concern about another possible
interpretation of the 0.5% threshold: that it means a party
must obtain 0.5% of the total number of registered voters
nationally in each oblast. That is, a party would have to
get a minimum of approximately 13,500 votes in each oblast --
a nearly insurmountable hurdle in the smaller oblasts.
(Note: A CEC official ducked our question about this, saying
that the CEC did not "interpret" the law, it only "applied"
the law. The electoral code is, in fact, not clear about

BISHKEK 00001366 002.4 OF 003


which "list of voters" should be used for the 0.5% threshold.
End note.)

AK JOL: THE NEW RULING PARTY
--------------


6. (SBU) President Bakiyev established a new political party,
Ak Jol ("Bright Path"),in mid-October, a week prior to
dissolving parliament and calling new elections. Although
Bakiyev does not officially lead the party, Ak Jol is the
president's creature, and Ak Jol has absorbed a number of
smaller pro-government (and pro-president) parties, such as
Ata-Jurt, El-Kelechegi, Moya Strana (My Country),United
Kyrgyzstan, Jany Kyrgyzstan, the Labor and Unity Party and a
few others. Ak Jol boasts several senior government
officials and at least 20 former MPs among its members,
including presidential chief of staff Medet Sadyrkulov,
former Deputy Prime Minister (and current acting Mayor of
Bishkek) Daniyar Usenov, Usen Sydykov, and ex-MPs Alisher
Sabirov, Rashid Tagayev, and Kamchibek Tashiyev. On November
10, Ak Jol announced the top five candidates on its list:
Constitutional Court Chair Cholpon Bayekova, State Secretary
Adakham Madumarov, Rector of the Slavonic University and
former leader of the pro-Russia Sodruzhestvo party Vladimir
Nifadyev, well known surgeon Ernst Akramov, and former head
of UN-funded ARIS Elmira Ibraimova. (Note: The names of
each party's top five candidates will appear on the ballot.
End Note.)

ATA-MEKEN: AN OPPOSITION UMBRELLA
--------------


7. (SBU) Ata-Meken, headed by former Speaker of Parliament
and opposition leader Omurbek Tekebayev, is one of the older
parties in Kyrgyzstan, with offices throughout the country.
For this election, Ata-Meken has tried to position itself as
an umbrella organization for all opposition parties, but
Ak-Shumkar (or what was left of it after the White House
successfully decimated the party) was the only party formally
to unite with Ata-Meken. Ata-Meken's membership includes
several former MPs, as well as prominent NGO leaders such as
Cholpon Jakupova (Adilet Legal Clinic) and Asiya Sasykbayeva
(Interbilim). Ata-Meken was the first party to announce its
party list, and its top five candidates are: Tekebayev,
former MP Kubatbek Baibolov, former MP Temir Sariyev, former
Bishkek city council deputy chair Tatyana Ponomaryova, and
ex-MP Duishenkul Chotonov.

SOCIAL DEMOCRATS: LEANING TOWARDS THE RULING PARTY
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev's Social Democratic
Party announced its intention to run on its own, rather than
unite with another party. The Social Democrats have a long
history and are considered to have deep financial resources.
In addition to Atambayev, its prominent members include AUCA
Vice President Bakyt Beshimov, who has strong pull in the
south, former NGO leader Edil Baisalov, and former Foreign
Minister (and former Asaba party co-leader) Roza Otunbayeva.
Party members have publicly been supportive of Bakiyev and
have said that they need to work with power to affect change.
Atambayev, however, will not be on the Social Democrats'
list, as he is trying to preserve his chances of being named
prime minister once again. Party chief of staff (ex-MP)
Omurbek Babanov said on October 8 that Atambayev would
continue to lead the government's efforts to ensure an honest
election and to improve the economic situation. The Social
Democrats' top five candidates are: Babanov, Beshimov,
former MP and wealthy businessman Osmonbek Artykbayev, Irina
Karamushkina, and Ruslan Shabotoyev.

OUTSIDERS: LOOKING FOR A FEW SEATS
--------------

BISHKEK 00001366 003.4 OF 003




9. (SBU) The Asaba party, led by ex-MP and former Prosecutor
General Azimbek Beknazarov, has its base of support in the
south of Kyrgyzstan. The party has toned down its Kyrgyz
nationalist rhetoric, and it has added a well known ethnic
Russian, Alevtina Pronenko, to its list to appeal to Russian
voters. Beknazarov, however, remains a controversial (and
polarizing) figure, as is the party's main donor, prominent
physician Jenishbek Nazaraliyev. The party held its
conference on Nov. 13 and nominated its candidates for the
election. At the top of the list are: Nazaraliyev,
Beknazarov, Roza Nurmatova, Pronenko, and ex-MP Dooronbek
Sadyrbayev. Asaba is trying to bring in outside figures to
its list, as neither Nazaraliyev nor Sadyrbayev are formally
members of Asaba (the law allows inclusion of people who are
not members of any party).


10. (SBU) The Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan, led by ex-MP
Iskhak Masaliyev, has seen a steady decline in membership
over the years, but it still counts on support from the older
generation, who are traditionally the most diligent voters.
Iskhak Masaliyev leads the list, which also includes Nikolay
Bailo, Beishen Akunov, Bulmairam Mamaseitova, and Ainash
Seitkaziyev.


11. (SBU) Several other parties have prominent people on
their lists, but probably lack the nationwide appeal
necessary to overcome the regional thresholds. Former Prime
Minister Felix Kulov will head the list for the Ar Namyz
party, which has nationwide organization but whose support
lies primarily in the north. The Democratic Party "Turan"
has former MPs Taiyrbek Sarpashev and Kanybek Imanaliyev at
the top of its list. The Meken ("Rodina" in Russian) party
has ethnic-Uzbek former MP Kadyrjan Batyrov in the top spot,
but the party has little following outside the south.

COMMENT: WILL IT BE FAIR?
--------------


12. (C) With the high thresholds nationwide and in each
oblast, it is likely that no more than three or four parties
-- and possibly just one or two -- will get into parliament.
Most expect that the president's Ak Jol party will get the
majority of the seats, whether or not it gets the majority of
the votes. Government officials have pledged a fair
election, but administrative resources will likely be (and
already have been -- reftel) deployed in support of Ak Jol.
As Minister of Justice Kaiypov put it, "We will try to do
everything so that the electorate supports the ruling party,
and we intend to do so in an honest and transparent fight."


13. (C) Both government and opposition believe that the
election will be a real contest, at least to some extent.
Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov told the
Ambassador that, with so many interested parties
participating, the government could not get away with "doing
what we did" during the referendum (that is, stuff the ballot
boxes -- though he wasn't specific). Pro-opposition Nurjamal
Baibalova, the recently dismissed Chair of the Bishkek City
Council and wife of Ata Meken candidate Kubatbek Baibolov,
told us she doubted the depth of support for Ak Jol and that
Ak Jol would not be able to get away with "stealing all the
votes."


14. (C) In a disturbing development, two long-term Central
Election Commission staffers were dismissed, reportedly for
criticizing the vote fraud in the October 21 constitutional
referendum. But on the positive side, the government has
invited international observers to monitor the polls, and
OSCE/ODIHR plans to send over 200 short term observers and 20
long term observers. The Embassy will also deploy teams to
monitor the vote around the country.
YOVANOVITCH