Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1340
2007-11-02 12:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:
UPCOMING KYRGYZ ELECTIONS AND THE RECENT
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001340
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: UPCOMING KYRGYZ ELECTIONS AND THE RECENT
REFERENDUM: VIEW FROM NARYN
BISHKEK 00001340 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001340
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: UPCOMING KYRGYZ ELECTIONS AND THE RECENT
REFERENDUM: VIEW FROM NARYN
BISHKEK 00001340 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador's October 24 - 26th trip to
Naryn Oblast provided an opportunity to measure the political
pulse of ordinary Kyrgyz citizens, local politicians,
opposition and pro-government parties, and NGO
representatives in one of Kyrgyzstan's poorest provinces.
Residents of Naryn, fresh from the October 21st
constitutional referendum, expressed pessimism about the
political process and upcoming parliamentary elections.
There are also indications that opposition parties are not
being made to feel welcome in the oblast.
--------------
Voter Turnout - a Measly 81 Percent
--------------
2. (C) When the Ambassador asked the Deputy Governor of Naryn
Oblast about voter turnout, he reported that Naryn Oblast's
turnout was "not great" at 81 percent. The Deputy Governor
confided that Naryn Oblast was in fifth place in terms of
voter turnout among the oblasts and that "we were worried we
would get in trouble." He insisted that Naryn Oblast did not
exaggerate voter turnout or the number of votes in favor of
the referendum. Likewise, the Mayor of Naryn claims that
turnout in the oblast capital was 67-68 percent. Anecdotal
accounts from NGO's, political party representatives,
journalists, and our own observers indicate, however, that
turnout in Naryn was much lower than reported figures.
Moreover, many people in Naryn seemed genuinely confused
about the purpose of the referendum. One villager thought
that the referendum was about whether to dissolve parliament.
At least one elderly woman asked a fellow voter, "Who are we
voting for?"
--------------
Pessimism about Parliamentary Elections
--------------
3. (C) When questioned about the upcoming parliamentary
elections, several politically active residents of Naryn
indicated that they fear the parliamentary elections will be
"even worse" than the referendum. One said she expected to
see murders in the lead-up to the elections. Another said
that the people of Naryn are sick of "dirty, false"
elections. One journalist described the political situation
as "worse than during President Akayev." While denying that
"administrative resources" will be used the elections, the
Mayor agreed with Ambassador that it would b difficult for
the recently formed presidential party Ak Zhol to win without
them. He added, he was part of the "Vertical of Power" and
bound to uphold the President's policies.
4. (C) There are indications that intimidation of opposition
parties may have already begun. The Ambassador's trip to
Naryn happened to coincide with the party conference, also
taking place in Naryn, of the most popular opposition party,
Ata-Meken. One local Ata-Meken representative reported that
his party was being hassled by police, who threatened to shut
down the party conference because of permit issues. The
Mayor of Naryn confirmed that there was a problem with the
permit, but said the permit requirement was legitimate since
the party conference was taking place in a government-owned
theater.
5. (SBU) After the party conference, the Ata-Meken motorcade
containing top party leadership (former deputies Omurbek
Tekebayev, Temir Sariyev, Kubatbek Baybolov, and businessman
Omurbek Abdrahmanov) was traveling back to Bishkek when it
was stopped on a mountain pass by unknown men in camouflage.
According to "Komsomolskaya Pravda Kyrgyzstan," the men in
camouflage proceeded to beat the party's bodyguards and
BISHKEK 00001340 002.2 OF 002
assistants and even fired automatic weapons. The men in
camouflage later turned out to be MVD police, who claimed
that the whole incident was a case of mistaken identity, as
polie were staking out narcotics traffickers and confused the
two groups of vehicles.
6. (C) Comment: Many of the people the Ambassador encountered
in Naryn Oblast reported feeling more politically
disenfranchised than at any other point in recent history.
It is not clear whether the economic circumstances described
in Reftel will create apathy about the upcoming parliamentary
elections or fuel discontent and political action.
YOVANOVITCH
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: UPCOMING KYRGYZ ELECTIONS AND THE RECENT
REFERENDUM: VIEW FROM NARYN
BISHKEK 00001340 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador's October 24 - 26th trip to
Naryn Oblast provided an opportunity to measure the political
pulse of ordinary Kyrgyz citizens, local politicians,
opposition and pro-government parties, and NGO
representatives in one of Kyrgyzstan's poorest provinces.
Residents of Naryn, fresh from the October 21st
constitutional referendum, expressed pessimism about the
political process and upcoming parliamentary elections.
There are also indications that opposition parties are not
being made to feel welcome in the oblast.
--------------
Voter Turnout - a Measly 81 Percent
--------------
2. (C) When the Ambassador asked the Deputy Governor of Naryn
Oblast about voter turnout, he reported that Naryn Oblast's
turnout was "not great" at 81 percent. The Deputy Governor
confided that Naryn Oblast was in fifth place in terms of
voter turnout among the oblasts and that "we were worried we
would get in trouble." He insisted that Naryn Oblast did not
exaggerate voter turnout or the number of votes in favor of
the referendum. Likewise, the Mayor of Naryn claims that
turnout in the oblast capital was 67-68 percent. Anecdotal
accounts from NGO's, political party representatives,
journalists, and our own observers indicate, however, that
turnout in Naryn was much lower than reported figures.
Moreover, many people in Naryn seemed genuinely confused
about the purpose of the referendum. One villager thought
that the referendum was about whether to dissolve parliament.
At least one elderly woman asked a fellow voter, "Who are we
voting for?"
--------------
Pessimism about Parliamentary Elections
--------------
3. (C) When questioned about the upcoming parliamentary
elections, several politically active residents of Naryn
indicated that they fear the parliamentary elections will be
"even worse" than the referendum. One said she expected to
see murders in the lead-up to the elections. Another said
that the people of Naryn are sick of "dirty, false"
elections. One journalist described the political situation
as "worse than during President Akayev." While denying that
"administrative resources" will be used the elections, the
Mayor agreed with Ambassador that it would b difficult for
the recently formed presidential party Ak Zhol to win without
them. He added, he was part of the "Vertical of Power" and
bound to uphold the President's policies.
4. (C) There are indications that intimidation of opposition
parties may have already begun. The Ambassador's trip to
Naryn happened to coincide with the party conference, also
taking place in Naryn, of the most popular opposition party,
Ata-Meken. One local Ata-Meken representative reported that
his party was being hassled by police, who threatened to shut
down the party conference because of permit issues. The
Mayor of Naryn confirmed that there was a problem with the
permit, but said the permit requirement was legitimate since
the party conference was taking place in a government-owned
theater.
5. (SBU) After the party conference, the Ata-Meken motorcade
containing top party leadership (former deputies Omurbek
Tekebayev, Temir Sariyev, Kubatbek Baybolov, and businessman
Omurbek Abdrahmanov) was traveling back to Bishkek when it
was stopped on a mountain pass by unknown men in camouflage.
According to "Komsomolskaya Pravda Kyrgyzstan," the men in
camouflage proceeded to beat the party's bodyguards and
BISHKEK 00001340 002.2 OF 002
assistants and even fired automatic weapons. The men in
camouflage later turned out to be MVD police, who claimed
that the whole incident was a case of mistaken identity, as
polie were staking out narcotics traffickers and confused the
two groups of vehicles.
6. (C) Comment: Many of the people the Ambassador encountered
in Naryn Oblast reported feeling more politically
disenfranchised than at any other point in recent history.
It is not clear whether the economic circumstances described
in Reftel will create apathy about the upcoming parliamentary
elections or fuel discontent and political action.
YOVANOVITCH