BAKIYEV DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT AFTER NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001304

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: BAKIYEV DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT AFTER NEW
CONSTITUTION "APPROVED" IN REFERENDUM

REF: BAKIYEV 1296

BISHKEK 00001304 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission
announced that, based on preliminary results, 75% of eligible
voters approved a new constitution and electoral code in the
October 21 referendum. The CEC claimed that nationwide
turnout was over 80%, but local observers disputed that
figure and reported numerous instances of ballot-box stuffing
and inflated voter counts. The CEC expects to announce final
results late on October 23.


2. (SBU) On October 22, President Bakiyev dissolved the
parliament and said he would announce new parliamentary
elections once the new constitution comes into effect. In
the decree dissolving parliament, Bakiyev claimed that the
parliament had created an insurmountable crisis by
interfering with the independence and functioning of the
Constitutional Court. (Note: In September, the parliament
had tried to rescind its earlier approval of three
Constitutional Court justices, but a district court on
October 11 rejected the parliament's action, allowing the
three justices to keep their seats. End Note.) END SUMMARY.

Light Turnout Observed, Heavy Turnout Claimed
--------------


3. (SBU) Kyrgyzstan held a nationwide referendum October 21
on a new constitution and new electoral code. Under the
Soviet-era law on referenda, the measures had to obtain the
approval of over 50% of Kyrgyzstan's 2.7 million registered
voters in order to pass. Several thousand domestic
observers, representing political parties and non-partisan
organizations, monitored the voting. Over 130 international
observers, including official SCO and CIS delegations,
participated. The OSCE did not have time to mount a large
international observation effort, but had four people
observe. The Embassy sent out 11 roving teams to Bishkek and
other regions of the country.


4. (C) Throughout the day, independent monitors and embassy
staff consistently reported seeing very light turnout of
actual voters in most precincts; they also reported numerous
violations. Observers reported instances of ballot-box
stuffing, inflated voter participation figures, and multiple
voting by individuals. Embassy monitors witnessed
individuals pulling scores of ballots out of their jackets
and stuffing them into the boxes. In many precincts,
domestic monitors conducted parallel counts of the number of
voters, and they reported large discrepancies between their
voter tallies and those of the precinct election commission
(PEC) staff. Embassy observers noted several instances of
reported heavy voting during periods when they were away from
a precinct, but only a trickle of voters during the time they
were present at the precinct. There were also credible
reports of pressure by election officials against domestic
observers, including removing observers from some stations.


5. (SBU) The CEC claims that turnout was over 80% of
registered voters, and that preliminary results show that the
new constitution and electoral code were approved by over 75%
of the registered voters. Independent estimates of voter
participation varied, but were considerably lower than the
official figures. One monitoring group, Taza Shailoo ("clean
election" in Kyrgyz),said that their parallel tabulation in
approximately one-third of all precincts indicated a turnout
of 40-45%. Other estimates put the turnout as low as 25-30%.



6. (SBU) On October 22, the head of the OSCE Center in
Bishkek issued a statement expressing concern about reports
of irregularities during the referendum, including "massive

BISHKEK 00001304 002.2 OF 002


ballot stuffing" and "obstruction of domestic observers by
local authorities." On October 23, the Embassy issued a
statement sharing the OSCE's concerns about irregularities
and declaring that the referendum did not meet international
standards. CEC member Damir Losovskiy said that the general
prosecutor's office had received only two official complaints
regarding irregularities, but most other complaints were
resolved at the precinct level. Not surprisingly, the SCO
and CIS delegations declared that the referendum had been
"free and open," and that there were only "minor violations
of a technical nature" that did not affect the results.

Bakiyev Dissolves Parliament
--------------


7. (SBU) On October 22, acting under provisions of the 2003
constitution, President Bakiyev dissolved the parliament.
(Note: Under the new constitution, the president's ability
unilaterally to dissolve parliament is more limited. End
Note.) Bakiyev claimed that he had been forced to act
because the parliament had created an "insurmountable crisis"
between the legislative and judicial branches. In September,
following the Constitutional Court's annullment of the
November and December 2006 versions of the constitution, the
parliament passed a resolution rescinding its earlier
approval of three Constitutional Court justices. The
justices challenged the parliament's action in court, and on
October 11, a district court ruled in the justices' favor,
allowing them to keep their seats. Nevertheless, Bakiyev
claimed that the parliament's action had threatened the
independence of the judiciary and had interfered with the
functioning of the Constitutional Court. Therefore, to
resolve this crisis, he dissolved the parliament. Bakiyev
said that he would announce new parliamentary elections once
the new constitution comes into effect. (Note: We
understand that the new constitution may be signed and in
effect this week. The new parliament will consist of 90
members, elected on a proportional basis by party lists.
Elections are likely to be called for December, with December
16 a possible date. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) No one outside of the Kyrgyz government seems to
believe the reported turnout of 80%. Local election
officials clearly were under a lot of pressure to produce
high turnout figures for the referendum, and they resorted to
a range of tactics -- including blatant ballot-box stuffing
-- to reach their quotas. Whether out of apathy or just a
desire to move forward, no one appears to be ready to
challenge the results of the referendum, despite the
irregularities, although it is likely that the opposition is
keeping book and will raise these issues when they believe
they can make best use of them. Similarly, (former) members
of parliament and the political opposition are accepting the
dissolution of parliament, despite the questionable legal
basis for the move. Instead, as it has been since Bakiyev's
September 19 announcement of the referendum, their attention
is squarely focused on the expected parliamentary elections
and securing a place on a party list. Most expect that there
will be far more scrutiny of the parliamentary elections, as
the elites will seek to defend their interests.
YOVANOVITCH