NEGLECT, POLITICAL ISOLATION AND HOPE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: NEGLECT, POLITICAL ISOLATION AND HOPE IN
KYRGYZSTAN'S EASTERN REGIONS

REF: BISHKEK 1170

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Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Poloff traveled to the eastern Kyrgyz
cities of Naryn and Balykchy September 19-21, met with
government officials, civil society activists, NGO
representatives and educators, and found infrastructural
neglect, political isolation, and high unemployment, but hope
for the future. In Naryn, most of that hope is centered
around the construction of a massive Aga Khan-sponsored
university, on land provided free of charge by the
government. In Balykchy, an economically struggling city on
the edge of Lake Issyk Kul, plans were going ahead for a
parliamentary by-election on September 30, despite the
announcement of a national constitutional referendum on
October 21 and the likelihood that the parliament would be
dissolved soon thereafter. Hope for increased investment,
however, was shared by government and NGOs alike, despite the
ongoing political instability in the capital and regions.
END SUMMARY.

NARYN: INFRASTRUCTURAL REPAIRS NEEDED
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2. (SBU) In conversations with NGO representatives,
government officials and educators, Poloff was told
frequently that Naryn remained in a desperate economic
situation. Years of infrastructural neglect, widespread
unemployment and poor interaction with the national
government and parliament spelled continued despair for
Naryn's residents. The Naryn Governor's Chief of Staff said
that public works projects, including hydroelectric dams and
aluminum smelters, are being considered, but no investors
have come forth. Although USAID-sponsored programs, namely
NDI's information resource center, have provided short-term
social development assistance, NGO representatives were
confident that long-term sustainability would be hard to
achieve, due to lack of funds.


3. (C) Many also pointed to the ill effects of the nearby
Touragart road, used daily by Chinese trucks transporting
goods to Bishkek, which has done little to invigorate Naryn's
local economy. The only consequence trade has had on Naryn,
according to local residents, is a damaged road and increased
traffic accidents. Naryn First Deputy Mayor Kubanychbek
Nurmanbetov told Poloff that, although road repairs were
discussed during the August 16 Shanghai Cooperation
Organization summit in Bishkek, no action has taken place
thus far. Nurmanbetov said he suggested to his superiors
that truck scales be installed at the Kyrgyz-Chinese border,
and criticized the national government for not listening to
Naryn's needs. While discussing the ongoing constitutional
reform process, he said mechanisms that would allow for more
interaction between Bishkek and the regions should be
included within the new constitution. "The regions are
always left behind," said Nurmanbetov, "and businesses,
people continue to leave."

AGA KHAN BRINGS HOPE TO NARYN
--------------


4. (SBU) Despite Naryn's isolation, the Aga Khan Foundation
will start construction in early 2008 of a large university
on 250 hectares of land donated by the government. Called
the University of Central Asia (UCA),UCA already offers
English language courses, business classes and the only
Microsoft certification course in Kyrgyzstan, in one of the
city's only office buildings. While touring the site of the
future university, slated for completion by 2011, UCA
administrators told Poloff that Naryn residents remain
hopeful that businesses within the city will benefit from the
large number of students expected to attend the university.

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With a broad range of vocational courses to be offered,
including those currently taught as well as modules on
construction, mountain tour operations, small business
management and accounting, UCA representatives were confident
that students from throughout Central Asia would be attracted
to their programs. Loans, to be paid back after UCA locates
jobs for its graduates, should also spur interest. The Aga
Khan Foundation is building similar campuses in Tekeli,
Kazakhstan and Khorog, Tajikistan.

BALYKCHY: A CITY ON THE EDGE
--------------


5. (C) In Balykchy, Mayor Talantbek Omurkulov said that his
office has great hopes for economic revitalization, but
offered no details on how that would be accomplished. He
mentioned that a large Russian truck manufacturing plant and
wheat mill (the second largest in Central Asia) kept
unemployment at relatively low levels during the Soviet era,
but were closed soon after independence. As a result, many
skilled laborers have fled the city, in search of jobs in
Russia, Kazakhstan and Bishkek. Although he said the city
maintains a population of nearly 45,000 residents, most
streets and bazaars were empty. Being a lakeside town,
however, the population -- and employment -- increases
slightly during the summer. The Mayor, nevertheless,
remained hopeful that investors would eventually come to
Balykchy, and appreciated Urban Institute's assistance with
Kyrgyzstan's move from a three- to a two-tier budget )- a
new structure that, according to Omurkulov, helped increase
Balykchy's access to public funds. Chairman of the Balykchy
Town Counsel Zarylbek Sharipov added that future U.S.
investment would be welcome, and asked if the Embassy could
help Balykchy locate a sister city in the United States.

PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION CAMPAIGNS CONTINUE
--------------


6. (C) Despite the possibility that early parliamentary
elections could be held, following the October 21 referendum
(reftel),13 candidates running in the Balykchy constituency
by-elections scheduled for September 30 are continuing their
campaigns. All share similar platforms, with economic
development at the top of each candidate's agenda, but enjoy
varying levels of financial support. Out of the 13 running,
two candidates had posters strung up throughout the city, and
only one (Maksat Abakirov),according to a local election
monitoring group financed by the NGO "Citizens Against
Corruption," would be able to "buy enough vodka and pay
enough voters" to win the race. Calling Abakirov the "new
Ryspek," a reference to Ryspek Akmatbayev, a criminal leader
who was killed after winning the Balykchy seat in 2006 (he
never took his seat in parliament),the NGO representative
told Poloff that he would be surprised if Abakirov did not
get elected. He noted that if the vodka and payments to
voters didn't help, Abakirov's armed thugs would make it
happen. Voter irregularities, he added, are assured. When
asked about law enforcement intervention, he said that local
government officials never stood up against criminals in the
past, so why should they now?

COMMENT
--------------


7. (SBU) While the Kyrgyz Government touts economic growth
and increased interaction with local government
representatives, Kyrgyzstan's eastern regions remain
stagnant. Grants from USAID and other international donors
have helped somewhat, especially in education and civil
society development, but infrastructural improvements will be
the key to future economic prosperity. And with, at least,
Naryn and Balykchy left virtually untouched since the fall of
the Soviet Union, a lot remains to be done.


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YOVANOVITCH