Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK1184
2007-09-25 12:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

EARLY KYRGYZ REACTIONS TO NEW CONSTITUTION DRAFT

Tags:  PGOV PREL KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001184 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: EARLY KYRGYZ REACTIONS TO NEW CONSTITUTION DRAFT

REF: A. BISHKEK 1170


B. BISHKEK 1158

C. BISHKEK 1130

BISHKEK 00001184 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001184

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: EARLY KYRGYZ REACTIONS TO NEW CONSTITUTION DRAFT

REF: A. BISHKEK 1170


B. BISHKEK 1158

C. BISHKEK 1130

BISHKEK 00001184 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyzstan will hold a national referendum
October 21 on a "new edition" of the constitution. The draft
text, which was released to the public September 20, calls
for parliament to be elected entirely by party lists and
appears to strengthen presidential control over the
parliament, government, and local administrations. The
presidential administration defended calling the referendum
on short notice, saying that the people were demanding
action. Prime Minister Atambayev said the referendum was a
"necessary step," and he thought the draft was "positive."
With dissolution of parliament the likely next move, members
of parliament appear more focused on their political survival
than on the details of the constitution. End Summary.

Administration Defends Referendum
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador September 21,
Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov defended
President Bakiyev's decision to call a constitutional
referendum on short notice, claiming that the people were
demanding action on constitutional reform. Sadyrkulov said
that the president's draft was based on the November,
December, and Atambayev draft amendments. He said that Prime
Minister Atambayev supported the president's draft, and
claimed that the opposition was satisfied with the "balance
of power" in the draft. Sadyrkulov said that the
introduction of party lists would help stop the corruption
and selling of votes in parliament, and having "national
republican" parties would lessen the north-south divide in
the country. Sadyrkulov said that the Central Election
Commission was prepared to hold the referendum, and President
Bakiyev would meet September 22 with all of the "akims"
(district administration heads) who had created an
"initiative group" to support the president and the
referendum.


3. (C) Sadyrkulov said the president did not want to dissolve
parliament, but if parliament did not "behave," it would be

dissolved, possibly before the referendum. Sadyrkulov
referred to two letters from Constitutional Court Chair
Bayekova to the president complaining of the
"unconstitutional" actions of the parliament and asking the
president to take action. Sadyrkulov also indicated that the
president might act against the parliament if it failed to
pass the budget. In any event, he said, the draft
constitution contains no transitional provisions for the
parliament, so following the referendum there would need to
be new parliamentary elections.

Prime Minister Favors Draft
--------------


4. (C) In a meeting with the DCM September 21, Prime Minister
Atambayev said that calling a referendum had been a
"necessary step" and "a step forward." He said that the
draft proposed was the best of several variations considered,
including an "authoritarian" option that was discarded, and
he disputed the view that the president's powers would
increase greatly, noting that the draft "only added" the
Interior Ministry to the president's control. Atambayev said
that the December constitution had given too much power to
the parliament, and a small group of deputies could block
progress on a range of issues. Therefore, this draft was
designed to "take parliament down a notch." Atambayev
favored the party list system, and he thought that with the
threshold set at 5%, 5 or 6 parties would make it into
parliament. Atambayev expected a number of deputies to join

BISHKEK 00001184 002.2 OF 003


his Social Democratic party, but he thought it was a big
mistake for Bakiyev to give up his "neutral position" and
announce his intention to form his own party.

MPs Focused on Politics
--------------


5. (C) Opposition MP Omurbek Tekebayev told the Ambassador
September 21 that the proposed constitution would have the
"worst" impact on the democratic process in Kyrgyzstan.
Tekebayev acknowledged that the November and December
versions had not been lawfully adopted, but he claimed that
the president's version was not logical and contained
numerous illegalities (though he also admitted he had not yet
read the full draft). Tekebayev also believed that Bakiyev
will gain full control of parliament after it is dissolved
and new elections are held. He said that the president knows
the opposition is unprepared and lacks the finances to
compete in elections. Tekebayev anticipated that most
political parties would not be able to pass the 5% threshold,
but the White House was already making promises to throw
votes to certain parties, paving the way for the president's
supporters to win the majority of seats in parliament.
Tekebayev thought that 70-80% of the population knows little
to nothing about the various political parties and Bakiyev
will use that to his advantage. He thought that the ethnic
Uzbeks could assemble the most unified of any political
groups in Kyrgyzstan.


6. (C) MP Alisher Sabirov, an ethnic Uzbek and head of the
pro-Moscow Sodruzhestvo party, told the Ambassador September
21 that the current draft constitution represented only a
"small change" from previous drafts, but it was a move toward
"managed democracy." What was unfolding, he said, was the
administration's "plan of action," launched in a burst of
confidence following the successful SCO summit in August.
With the constitutional referendum announced, the next step
would be to dissolve parliament and call early elections.
Asked how this would be accomplished, Sabirov said there were
several plans, including the possibility of self-dissolution.
Sabirov said he thought 5-6 parties would make it into a new
parliament, with the president's new party gaining a majority
of the seats. Sabirov was confident that his Sodruzhestvo
party, which he described as "centrist, pro-presidential,"
would make it, as would the communists and an opposition
bloc. He said that deputies were "in shock" over the
surprise announcement of the referendum and concerned about
how to preserve their seats, and some had approached him
about joining Sodruzhestvo.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) To this point, reaction to the president's draft has
been restrained, as constitutional experts are still
analyzing the text. We expect to provide an analysis of the
president's draft by the end of the week, but it is clear
that the changes made increase the president's powers and
decrease the power of other branches of government, including
local governments.


8. (C) While there was a meeting of NGOs on September 23 that
called for additional time for the parliament and the
president to discuss the constitution before a referendum
takes place, most parliamentary deputies are so busy gaming
out how to make it onto the new party lists that will be key
to gaining reelection that they are not putting any apparent
effort into stopping the referendum.


9. (C) In a sign that the playbook is still being written,
newly confirmed CEC Chair and presidential loyalist Klara
Kabilova acknowledged today that the hastily called
referendum violated the referendum law, and so "it was
possible that the referendum may be postponed until October

BISHKEK 00001184 003.2 OF 003


28 or November 1." The consensus view remains, however, that
the referendum will proceed at some point, and the next step
will be the dissolution of parliament and early parliamentary
elections.
YOVANOVITCH