SADYRKULOV: ROSY OUTLOOK FOR KYRGYZSTAN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000102

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR KG
SUBJECT: SADYRKULOV: ROSY OUTLOOK FOR KYRGYZSTAN AND
U.S.-KYRGYZ RELATIONS

BISHKEK 00000102 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARIE L. YOVANOVITCH, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: During a lengthy conversation with
Ambassador, First Deputy Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov predicted
his own influence would increase and that Kyrgyzstan would
push forward on reforms and improved relations with the west.
Ambassador emphasized the importance of resolving the legal
issues between NDI, IRI and the Procurator General and the
greater political issues. Sadyrkulov predicted some of the
key figures in the new cabinet, including that Foreign
Minister Jekshenkulov would likely stay on for six months.
As the scotch continued to flow, Sadyrkulov described his
complicated relationship with Kulov. End Summary.

"STEP BY STEP"
--------------


2. (C) On January 31, Ambassador met with President Bakiyev's
First Deputy Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov, who provided a
positive outlook on the direction of the Bakiyev regime and
relations with the U.S. During a lengthy conversation
following an AUCA-hosted dinner, Sadyrkulov told Ambassador
to expect to see significant and positive differences in the
coming weeks. He claimed that recent changes in the cabinet
will increase his own influence. "Everything is up to
Bakiyev," he said, and indicated that those offering bad
advice have been marginalized, so better decisions will soon
emerge "step by step."


3. (C) Sadyrkulov said he believes Kyrgyzstan should be more
oriented to the west, including the U.S., and away from
"neighbors who want to control us and are not acting in
Kyrgyzstan's best interest." Sadyrkulov admitted that the
government had made some major mistakes in the past,
specifically citing the two U.S. diplomats PNG'ed last
summer. He added that Bakiyev understands these past
mistakes. Told that February 1 marks the 15th year
anniversary of the opening of the U.S. Embassy in
Bishkek*the first Embassy to open in Bishkek-Sadyrkulov
suggested that the President attend the Embassy's anniversary
event.

NDI AND IRI PROBLEMS STILL LINGERING
--------------


4. (C) Ambassador raised the most recent problems regarding
NDI. Sadyrkulov was unaware of the particulars but said he
would host a meeting with NDI and the Procurator General.
Ambassador said resolution of the legal issues is welcome,
but it is important to solve the larger political issues as
well. She stressed that Congressional decisions regarding
the Millennium Challenge Account for Kyrgyzstan may be
directly and negatively affected, should problems for the
international NGOs persist.

FORECAST FOR A NEW CABINET
--------------


5. (C) Sadyrkulov provided Ambassador with a number of
predictions regarding the new cabinet. He predicted that
Alikbek Jekshenkulov would stay on as Foreign Minister for at
least another six months, "to oversee the upcoming Shanghai
Cooperation Organization summit." (Note: The next meeting
of the SCO Council of Heads of State is scheduled to take
place in Bishkek in June. Kyrgyzstan has assumed the SCO
presidency this year. End note.) Sadyrkulov said that
acting Minister of Education, Nur Dosbol Uluu, would be
replaced and that he was pressing for a young professor with
"a progressive approach to education" instead of a Soviet-era
education official. Sadyrkulov also anticipated that acting
Deputy Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev would be reassigned
to the position of Foreign Policy Advisor to the President,
replacing Ermek Ibragimov.

BISHKEK 00000102 002.2 OF 002




6. (C) When Ambassador asked for his opinion on the newly
appointed Prime Minister, Sadyrkulov said that Isabekov will
not operate independently but that Kyrgyzstan needs a PM
focused on the economy, not an independent thinker. He cited
Kulov as an example of a PM that meddled in politics when he
should have been running the economy. Sadyrkulov said Kulov
would begin building a new political party, becoming a force
in the opposition. This will "force us to do the right
thing," he said approvingly.

HATRED FOR KULOV RUNS DEEP
--------------


7. (C) This comment sparked a window into Sadyrkulov's
loathing for former PM Felix Kulov. Sadyrkulov explained
that soon after the March 2005 events, Kulov had promised him
the position of manager of Kulov's presidential campaign.
During the weeks that followed, the Bakiyev-Kulov tandem was
formed and Kulov dropped out of the presidential race,
leaving Sadyrkulov--who had just left his Ambassadorial
position--high and dry. Shortly thereafter, the Prosecutor
General opened an investigation into Sadyrkulov's alleged
participation in illegal activity with former President
Akayev. The investigation lasted nine months, during which
Kulov offered no assistance. Days before he left office,
Kulov invited Sadyrkulov to join him in the presidential
dining room for some caviar and Hennessy, presumably to try
to make amends. "Kulov double-crossed too many people",
Sadyrkulov explained, "and maybe now he understands that."

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Sadyrkulov was relaxed and had no qualms about
pounding back glass after glass of scotch. He was also very
confident about his own position and predictions. Sadyrkulov
clearly has an interest in convincing us that Bakiyev really
is a reformer and that relations with the U.S. will soon
improve; however, we also note that Sadyrkulov's predictions
often prove to be correct. We can only hope that this is the
case this time. If only a portion of what Sadyrkulov shared
is true, Sadyrkulov deserves his reputation as the
Machiavelli of Kyrgyz politics. Finally, the vignette on the
Kulov-Sadyrkulov relationship reveals that Sadyrkulov holds a
grudge--and knows how to exact revenge. He implied that if
he is not the architect of Kulov's swift fall from grace, he
certainly participated in drawing up the blueprints.
YOVANOVITCH