Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERN144
2007-02-14 16:40:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Bern
Cable title:  

SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND

Tags:  PGOV SZ 
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VZCZCXRO7869
RR RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSW #0144/01 0451640
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141640Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3696
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2669
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERN 000144 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SZ
SUBJECT: SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND
CELEBRITY POLITICIANS ERODE THE STATUS QUO?


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Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERN 000144

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SZ
SUBJECT: SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND
CELEBRITY POLITICIANS ERODE THE STATUS QUO?


--------------
Summary
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1.(U) Summary: Switzerland kicked off a busy election
year on February 11, as the first of six scheduled
cantonal elections was held in advance of the October
21 federal elections. Those predicting little change
in the current party balance were vindicated as polling
in Basel-Land witnessed a failed gambit by a Left-Green
alliance to break out of their minority status. Three
questions about the future of Swiss politics will be
answered in the coming eight months:

-- Which of the two large ascendant parties, the right-
populist Swiss Peoples Party (SVP) or the left-wing
Social Democratic Party (SP),will edge out the other
for predominance?

-- Which of the two diminishing centrist parties, the
Free Democrats (FDP) or Christian Peoples Party (CVP),
will assume third place, and claim a second seat on the
Federal Council?

-- Will the Greens usurp traditional socialist and
moderate-environmentalist support to become a
significant player at the federal level?

2.(U) At this point, the survival of the "magic
formula" four-party consensus government appears the
likely outcome. However, a shift away from traditional
party loyalties and towards the profiling of celebrity
politicians (like Federal Councilors Christoph Blocher,
Micheline Calmy-Rey, and Doris Leuthard) may lead to
the demise of staQ, consensual politics -- though
probably not yet. End summary.

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Left Overreaches in Basel-Land
--------------

3.(U) Over the past weekend, voters in the canton of
Basel-Land (separate from Basel City) dashed earlier
pollster prediction of a SP and Green victory.
Instead, both the governing coalition and parliament
remained in center-right hands. Only one incumbent SP
Minister was reelected alongside two FDP incumbents,
while voters returned the two open seats to the CVP and
SVP, as they were held before. In the 90-seat cantonal
parliament, the SP even lost three seats to its Green
allies, while the FDP and SVP gained one seat each.

4.(U) Damaging the Socialists-Greens was its decision
to run four candidates for the five cabinet seats. As
occurred when the SVP reached too far in the 2006 Bern
cantonal elections, the SP/Greens dispersed its vote
among too many candidates. This fact, and the loss of

SP seats to the Greens, may play in both party's
considerations as they look to upcoming elections in
Vaud and Appenzel (March 11),Ticino and Luzerne (April
1),and Zurich (April 15). On the right, the SVP and
FDP also need to decide whether they are stronger in
alliance or on their own.

-------------- --------------
Rising of the Wings: SP on the Left; SVP on the Right
-------------- --------------

5.(U) Recent elections have seen political support flow
toward the two flanks of the political spectrum, and
both the SVP and the SP expect this trend to continue.
As the two parties are neck-and-neck right now (27 vs.
26 percent of the popular vote),the only question is
which will have bragging rights as the top vote winner.

6.(U) The right-populist SVP is boldly forecasting an
additional hundred thousand supporter on its side.
While moderate gains are expected in the Swiss-German
part of the country, the SVP is primarily looking to
the French speaking cantons for its largest gains,
reinforcing its spectacular gains during the 2006 local
elections. Using the goat as a symbol for its 2007
campaign trail, the party and its charismatic leader
Justice Minister Christoph Blocher are touting the
alternative vision they offer as against the Left,
whose victory would bring "economic decline, more
taxes, public debt, crime and misappropriated social
benefits." The party has picked up support in the wake
of its high-profile campaigns to tighten immigration
and asylum laws and hold-back EU integration, but the
party is divided economically between its business-

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oriented urban faction and protectionist rural base.

7.(U) The SP has the objective to become the largest
party in Switzerland, with a plurality of both the
Federal Council and Parliament. The SP relies heavily
on the popularity of Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-
Rey, currently encumbering the rotating presidency of
the Swiss Confederation. Her aura in the media should
boost the chances of her party. However, her close
association with the European Union (the SP favors
eventual Swiss membership) is a wildcard in this
election year, as she his forced to react to criticism
from EU officials targeting Swiss taxation policy and
demanding greater cohesion fund contributions to new
member states Romania and Bulgaria. Energy is another
contentious issue for the party as Energy Minister and
SP stalwart Moritz Leuenberger faces the ideological
no-win options of renewing Switzerland's older nuclear
facilities or switching to fossil-fuel plants.

--------------
Race for Third Place: FDP or CVP?
--------------

8.(U) The 2003 elections brought the worst result in a
hundred years to the Free Democrats and the Christian
Peoples Party, with each party losing seven seats in
the Lower House of Parliament. The CVP's meager 14
percent result finally forced it to cede its second
cabinet seat to the ascendant SVP.

9.(U) For the FDP, a turnaround in the 2007 elections
will be crucial if it is to retain its two Federal
Councilors, Pascal Couchepin (Social Affairs) and Hans-
Rudolf Merz (Finance). Pressure continues to mount on
the shoulders of the countryQs centrist and pro-
business party the Free Democrats (FDP). The FDP's
loss has been attributed to the failure of the managing
elite to run the country effectively and the missteps
it committed over the proposed increase ofQhe
retirement age from 65 to 67. Post-Enron corporate
scandals in Switzerland, including the 2001 grounding
of the former Swiss national airline Swissair, are
still vivid in the populationQs memory.

10.(U) The CVP was also tarred by the various corporate
scandals. Its political defeat in 2003 and subsequent
loss of a second federal council seat triggered the
replacement of CVP Justice Minister Ruth Metzler by SVP
Christoph Blocher. After a leadership shakeup, the CVP
appears to be bouncing back under the stewardship of
the young and dynamic Economics Minster Doris Leuthard,
who has become a media icon in her own right.
Appealing to the party's social activist wing, Leuthard
has contrasted the large bonuses handed out to top
corporate managers with the meager wage increases for
most employees as endangering the social environment.
Latest opinion polls show unemployment as a primary
concern for Swiss voters despite the expected economic
recovery (2.7 percent in 2006, 1.8 in 2007) and the
countryQs low three percent unemployment rate. If
elections go well this time, the CVP is on track to
claim its second cabinet seat back, perhaps at the
expense of a declining FDP.

--------------
Greens: Not There Yet
--------------

11.(U) The Green outsiders will be carefully watched as
the alliance with the SP increasingly comes under
strain. With the media focus on climate change, every
Swiss party portrays itself as a friend of the
environment. The SP leadership recently infuriated the
Greens with the claim that "anyone who supports
environment votes socialist." Green flirtation with
left-fringe parties in the French speaking part of
Switzerland also has led observers to wonder about the
future of the SP-Green alliance. In Vaud, one of the
larger cantons, this rivalry blossomed after local
greens opted for a go-it-alone strategy, thus dividing
the left against a united right in its March cantonal
elections. At the national level, the Greens no longer
see themselves as a sidekick for the SP. Some of the
Green leadersQ even hint at having their own Federal
Council seat in the near future. However, despite
Green success at the local and cantonal level, where
high profile figures have been elected, Green
parliamentarians at the federal level still fail to
differentiate themselves from the SPQs anti-capitalist
rhetoric.

BERN 00000144 003 OF 003



--------------
Background: A Swiss Political Primer
--------------

12.(U) Switzerland has a bicameral federal legislature
modeled in 1848 after the American. The Council of
State (upper house) is composed of two members from
each of the 20 full cantons (states),one from each of
the six half cantons, to equal 46 seats. The National
Council is comprised of 200 seats, distributed
proportionally by population. Unlike the U.S. system,
the executive is embodied not in an individual, but in
a seven-member Federal Council (cabinet) with a
rotating presidency assuming mostly ceremonial
functions. Under a 1959 agreement referred to as the
"magic formula," the four major parties -- FDP, CVP, SP
and SVP -- agreed to divvy up the seven Federal Council
seats, with the three larger parties retain two seats
each, the fourth party one.

13.(U) The results of the 2003 general election gave
the SVP about 27 percent of the lower house seats and
the SP slightly less at 26 percent. The historically
predominant FDP fell to 20 percent and the CVP
plummeted to 14 percent. In the upper house, the two
traditional centrist parties retained much of their
historic strength, each retaining roughly a third of
the seats, with the SVP and SP splitting the remainder.
Parliament generally meets in three-week sessions, four
times per year.

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Comment
--------------

14.(U) Switzerland's consensus cabinet and militia
parliament has translated into remarkable stability
over the past 50 years. Few expect significant changes
in the coming elections. This applies as well to most
Swiss policies, including foreign policies of interest
to the United States. Following the 2007 elections,
there are likely to be only marginal adjustments in the
Switzerland's global profile, though we can hope to see
modest progress on free trade and law enforcement
cooperation.

15.(U) In the long term, polarization toward the left
and right wings, the decline of the centrist parties,
the rise of the Greens, the decrease in lifelong party
loyalties, and the trend toward personality-based
politics, could undermine the viability of the "magic
formula" consensus government and ultimately result in
a more conventional coalition/opposition governing
structure. However, barring a major political
upheaval, such a shift is unlikely this year.
Coneway