Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERLIN604
2007-03-23 16:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

MDA DIRECTOR OBERING PROMOTES MISSILE DEFENSE IN

Tags:  MARR MASS NATO PREL GM 
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VZCZCXYZ0024
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRL #0604/01 0821656
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231656Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7634
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 1735
RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE PRIORITY 0447
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 0639
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 9412
C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000604 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOD FOR MDA NANCY MORGEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017
TAGS: MARR MASS NATO PREL GM
SUBJECT: MDA DIRECTOR OBERING PROMOTES MISSILE DEFENSE IN
GERMANY

REF: BERLIN 576

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOD FOR MDA NANCY MORGEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017
TAGS: MARR MASS NATO PREL GM
SUBJECT: MDA DIRECTOR OBERING PROMOTES MISSILE DEFENSE IN
GERMANY

REF: BERLIN 576

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Lt. General Henry A. Obering, Director of the U.S.
Missile Defense Agency, visited Berlin on March 15 to provide
briefings and answer questions about U.S. missile defense
(MD) plans from the German press, think-tank analysts,
high-ranking government officials, and members of the German
Parliament (Bundestag). While the audience reaction at each
of the presentations was positive, a continuing effort is
required to convince policy elites and the skeptical German
public of the need for MD in Europe. Lt. General Obering
stressed the following themes during his visit: A) The
Iranian ICBM,
IRBM, SRBM threat is real, growing, and may be non-deterable;
B) The European site will defend against longer-range threats
and can complement NATO,s Missile Defense efforts; C) The
Missile Defense Agency has completed numerous flight tests
proving the MD technology works, and; D) The U.S. has and
will continue to engage with Russia and we will continue to
be transparent within NATO and the NRC in our efforts. End
summary.

Meetings with a Skeptical Press
--------------


2. (U) Lt. General Obering gave two TV interviews, held a
press roundtable with approximately 20 journalists, and
answered questions from the Bundestag press corps. Questions
focused on the risks of dividing Europe and NATO, provoking
Russia, and the danger of debris falling over Germany,
including radioactive debris. Lt. General Obering stressed
that consultations at NATO and with the Russians had been
ongoing for over a year, and would continue until "our allies
understand how the system works" and accept that it would
complement NATO efforts.

Briefs for Opinion Multipliers
--------------


3. (C) At a well attended briefing with think tank analysts
and Bundestag staff experts, Lt. General Obering provided a
15 minute briefing on the technical specifications and

ramifications of the proposed MD sites in Poland and the
Czech Republic. The main concerns expressed in follow-on
questions related to the system's capability to intercept
Russian missiles, and whether the interceptor missiles would
be in compliance with the INF treaty. Lt. General Obering
stated that the system under consideration could not be used
to defend against an attack from Russia, and the Russians are
aware of this fact. He also stated that the INF treaty
covers offensive missiles, and reiterated that the MD system
is strictly defensive in nature. While attendees seemed
interested in the notion of an integrated long, medium and
short range missile defense system, one participant
(Karl-Heinz Kamp from the CDU-affiliated Adenauer Foundation)
acknowledged that European defense budgets would be
hard-pressed to allocate funds for such a system. Addressing
the need for MD in Europe, Lt. Gen. Obering pointed out that
a portion of offensive ballistic missiles fall far short of
their intended targets, and there would be a real possibility
that an Iranian nuclear missile aimed at the U.S. could
inadvertently land in Europe if there were no MD system in
place.

NATO, Russia, SDI Aspects Discussed at MFA
--------------


4. (C) Lt. Gen. Obering next held a briefing with Foreign
Office State Secretary Reinhard Silberberg, Political
Director Michael Schaefer, Security Policy Commissioner
Eberhard Pohl and Special Arms Control Advisor Ruediger
Luediking. Silberberg said he was interested in learning
more about negotiations with Russia and how we could bring
them into the process. Obering explained the where, when and
how of the various briefings that have occurred with Russian
officials, and said the U.S. remains open to Russian
involvement on MD matters broadly, emphasizing this is
important to "avoid division within Europe and between Europe

and Russia." Lt. Gen. Obering also stated that the current
U.S./Poland/Czech Republic project could be incorporated into
a comprehensive NATO MD capability, and that the U.S.
supports continued consultations with NATO partners on this
issue. He added, however, that the U.S., Poland, and the
Czech Republic would not be seeking NATO approval to move
forward.


5. (C) Silberberg emphasized that Russian threats against
Poland and the Czech Republic were completely unacceptable,
but said that Russia wants to be taken seriously as a major
power and that likely 80 percent of the debate with Russia is
about Russian psychology and not about the facts of MD.
Nevertheless, Silberberg expressed the view that NATO allies
need to make sure that Cold War ghosts are not resurrected.
Lt. General Obering reiterated U.S. interest in doing
everything it can to engage the Russians, even expressing
support for radar data sharing. He said Germany was well
placed to assist in engaging the Russians and asked for their
support -- a request which was met with a moment of silence.


6. (C) Schaefer next brought up two frequently heard German
concerns: that BMD is the first step toward a space-based
arms race, and that debris from destroyed missiles could land
on Europe. Lt. General Obering responded that, whereas in
the past the U.S. nuclear deterrent was sufficient when
dealing with rational actors, today the West is confronted
with the "nation-state equivalent of a suicide bomber."
Lt. General Obering emphasized that the threat posed by
falling particles of a destroyed ballistic missile paled in
comparison with what would happen if a nuclear warhead were
to detonate over a large city. He added that by destroying
the incoming weapons in space, most of the material would be
pulverized instantaneously and much of the rest would burn up
during reentry through the atmosphere.

Bundestag Leaders Politically Unsure
--------------


7. (SBU) Lt. Gen. Obering then met with leading members of
the Bundestag Defense and Foreign Relations Committees,
including Deputy Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman
Hans-Ulrich Klose (SPD),Deputy Defense Committee Chairman
Walter Kolbow (SPD),Alexander Bonde (Greens),Werner Hoyer
(FDP Foreign Affairs Spokesman),Paul Schaefer (Left Party),
and Karl-Georg Wellmann (CDU).


8. (C) During the meeting, Lt. General Obering was able to
demonstrate that the system is effective against the kinds of
potential threats posed by the DPRK and Iran; it can protect
European populations as well as stationed forces; there is no
threat to Russia; the system can be integrated with NATO
missile defense programs (though the US will retain command
and control); and it deserves Germany's support. Klose
brought up the political awkwardness of the locations in
Poland (especially) and the Czech Republic. He explained
that Poland does not completely trust NATO to provide
security, and that this bilateral deal with the U.S. can be
politically used by Poland against NATO and Germany. Lt.
General Obering explained that the choice of locations was
based on clear operational requirements. Bonde asked
whether it is technically possible to completely destroy a
missile as he was concerned about the threat to Germany by
debris. Despite the clear and detailed response provided by
Lt. General Obering, Bonde released a press statement shortly
after the meeting stating that he remained unconvinced.
Other questions related to radar positioning in the Caucusus,
whether the MD deployment might be an incentive for Iran to
produce even more weapons, and what more could be done to
allay both NATO and Russian concerns. At the conclusion of
the meeting, Kolbow stated that there was no German decision
on missile defense yet, that German politicians continue to
hold differing perceptions, and the road ahead could be a
challenging one for the grand coalition government. He
stated that we should work to convince the Russians, and that
we should "keep the Poles within the framework of NATO."

MOD Urges More NATO and Russian Involvement
--------------


9. (C) At the MoD, State Secretary Dr. Peter Eickenboom
brought up the relationship between the proposed U.S. MD
system in Poland and the Czech Republic and the system under
discussion at NATO since the 2002 Prague Summit. He
appreciated Lt. General Obering's comment that the U.S.
initiative could be linked to NATO and treated as a
"contribution" to an overall NATO concept. Eikenboom
emphasized that, in his view, this needs to be a priority at
the June NATO Defense Ministers meeting. He explained that
Germany is participating in missile defense activities as
agreed in the Prague Summit, within NATO, and mentioned
MEADS, Patriot, a Navy missile project with the U.S., and
other efforts for close range protection of deployed forces.
Eikenboom emphasized that these are non-controversial efforts
to counter short or medium range threats, and they all enjoy
the support of the Bundestag. But, in the case of the U.S.
MD effort with Poland and the Czech Republic, the topic has
to do with long-range and ICBM protection and was not
conceived in the multilateral NATO context. Discussions now
occurring in Germany are linked to the intermediate range
missile program in the 1980's, and pointed out that that
heated domestic debate contributed to a change in government
at that time. He asserted that the German public is not
presently prepared to support MD, especially if it is viewed
as jeopardizing existing arms control agreements or
antagonizing Russia.


10. (C) Eickenboom said the German government position is
that comprehensive discussions on missile defense at NATO
have yet to take place, and that they want to discuss this
in-depth at NATO. He thought the argument for the system
should emphasize that it is intended to protect the United
States and Europe from missiles launched by Iran and North
Korea, and we have to make a special effort to communicate
this to Russia. He also explained that had a decision been
reached in NATO, much of the intra-European squabbling could
have been avoided.

Chancellery Shies Away From Offering Support
--------------


11. (C) In his final meeting of the day, Lt. Gen. Obering met
with Dr. Christoph Heusgen, National Security Advisor at the
Chancellery and Rolf Nikel, his Deputy. Both expressed
appreciation for the briefing, as Lt. Gen. Obering had been
able to confirm their positive notions and address their
lingering concerns about the proposed system. Privately,
Nikel told Lt Gen Obering that he spoke to members of the
Bundestag, and that support for the European Site is growing
with greater understanding of U.S. plans. Furthermore, Nikel
said that there is a lot of misinformation that exists and he
was pleased that Lt. Gen Obering clearly and concisely
addressed the common themes/areas of concern in Europe
(debris, threat, Russia reactions).


12. (C) Given the positive response by the Chancellery's top
security advisers, DCM Koenig took Nikel aside afterwards and
asked whether the Chancellery would be willing to say
something positive about the system when asked by
journalists. Nikel declined to do so, saying "we are not
there yet." More discussion is required on the subject to
harmonize positions within the grand coalition. In addition,
Nikel observed that Chancellor Merkel wants to avoid a media
uproar over MD as she prepares to host a successful EU summit
next week in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the
Treaty of Rome.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Lt. General Obering's visit helped advance the
debate within Germany on Missile Defense. Media coverage
(including by several journalists who attended his briefing)
has become more balanced -- and in several instances more
critical of politicians such as SPD Chairman Beck who have
tried to take a populist approach to opposing U.S. MD plans.
There are still many critical voices, especially on the left;
however they are no longer repeating the baseless Russian
objections to MD, and instead are focused on the substance:
the Iranian threat and how Germany and NATO should respond.
We are not out of the woods by any means, but the evolving
discussion presents a more favorable climate for addressing
and resolving many of the expressed concerns. U/S of Defense
Edelman's visit March 28-29 will provide another excellent
opportunity to keep shifting German thinking on MD.


14. (U) This cable has been cleared with the Missile Defense
Agency.

KOENIG