Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERLIN1884
2007-10-15 05:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

GERMANY'S AFGHANISTAN MANDATES: ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO

Tags:  PREL NATO MARR GM AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRL #1884/01 2880530
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 150530Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9471
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 0441
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0517
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001884 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PREL NATO MARR GM AF
SUBJECT: GERMANY'S AFGHANISTAN MANDATES: ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO

REF: A. BERLIN 1825


B. BERLIN 1654

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JEFFREY RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND
(D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001884

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PREL NATO MARR GM AF
SUBJECT: GERMANY'S AFGHANISTAN MANDATES: ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO

REF: A. BERLIN 1825


B. BERLIN 1654

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JEFFREY RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND
(D).


1. (C) Summary: With the Bundestag's approval of the
ISAF/Tornado mandate Oct. 12, the spotlight now shifts to the
upcoming parliamentary debate and vote on the OEF mandate.
While most parliamentarians now seem to accept that dropping
the OEF mandate would send a very bad political signal about
Germany's overall commitment to the mission in Afghanistan,
one wild card is the Oct. 26-28 SPD National Party
Convention, where the OEF mandate is likely to be the subject
of some intense discussion. The possibility, however, of a
SPD grass-roots revolt against OEF seems increasingly
unlikely, as the party leadership has taken a number of steps
over the last several weeks to shore up support on
Afghanistan, and the party as a whole is focused on an
internal debate over its direction on domestic policy. While
the OEF mandate looks like it will be safely renewed in
November, there continue to be a number of misperceptions
about what OEF is all about and questions about how CSTC-A
works. The October 22-23 visit to Berlin of Principal DAS/D
for International Security Affairs Mary Beth Long and Joint
Staff Deputy Director of Politico-Military Affairs Major
General Bobby Wilkes offers a great opportunity to address
these issues and solidify support for our Afghanistan agenda.
End Summary.

ISAF/Tornado mandate in the bag
--------------


2. (SBU) The Bundestag approved Oct. 12 a one-year extension
of the parliamentary mandate that governs the Bundeswehr's
participation in the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. The
combined mandate, which also covers the provision of six
Tornado reconnaissance aircraft, was approved with an
overwhelming majority, including strong support from the
opposition Free Democratic Party (FDP). The margin in favor
of the combined mandate was significantly higher than it was
for the Tornado mandate this past spring -- 454-79 vs.
405-157. In the spring, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) --
the junior partner in the Grand Coalition government -- had

69 defections on the Tornado vote (nearly a third of the
caucus),but only 13 voted against the combined mandate this
time around. Fifteen of the 51 Greens Party parliamentarians
defied the decision of their September 15 national special
party convention and voted in favor of the combined mandate;
only seven Greens voted against the mandate, while most
abstained. Most of the "no" votes came from The Left party,
which opposes all overseas deployments and which voted as a
solid block against the mandate.

Relief for the SPD
--------------


3. (SBU) The vote represents a victory for the SPD
leadership, which was highly embarrassed by the high number
of dissenters when the Tornado mandate was first considered
by the Bundestag in the spring. While the Tornado deployment
is inherently less controversial than it was initially, the
increase in support is also a direct result of the
government's decision to combine the ISAF and Tornado
mandates into one, eliminating the opportunity for
parliamentarians to split their votes. Many of the 69 SPD
parliamentarians who voted against the Tornado mandate in the
spring strongly support ISAF and were not willing to
sacrifice ISAF in order to express their displeasure with the
Tornado deployment.

Greens defy party instructions
--------------


4. (SBU) While successful in reining in wayward SPD
parliamentarians, the strategy of combining the mandates led
to splits in the Green party. The party held a special party
convention September 15, which decided not to support the
combined mandate because of its inclusion of the Tornados.
This put many Green parliamentarians in an extremely awkward
position, subjecting them to criticism from other mainstream
parties and accusations that the Greens were no longer a
reliable potential governing party. Against that backdrop,
the decision of many Green parliamentarians to vote "yes" on
the combined mandate, notwithstanding a party decision to the
contrary, is noteworthy. However, it remains to be seen how
forgiving the Green Party rank-and-file will be with
parliamentarians who failed to toe the party line.

Spotlight shifts to OEF mandate

BERLIN 00001884 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (C) With the ISAF/Tornado mandate out of the way, the
focus now turns to the mandate governing the Bundeswehr's
contribution to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). There will
be a separate Bundestag debate and vote on the OEF mandate in
early November. The maritime component of the mandate,
covering about 250 sailors and German frigates patrolling off
the Horn of Africa, is not controversial, although some
parliamentarians question why, six years after 9/11, this
mission cannot be "regularized" via a UNSCR.


6. (C) The real bone of contention, however, remains the
Afghanistan portion of the mandate, which currently provides
for the deployment of up to 100 German Special Forces (KSK).
Some continue to argue against renewing the OEF mandate,
noting that the KSK has not been deployed to Afghanistan
under OEF for more than two years, but most parliamentarians
now seem to accept that dropping the OEF mandate would send a
very bad political signal about Germany's overall commitment
to the mission in Afghanistan. One wild card in the lead-up
to next month's vote is the Oct. 26-28 SPD National Party
Conference, where the OEF mandate will be the subject of
intense discussion. There is a small chance that grass-roots
activists could hijack the conference, as happened with the
Greens, and sway a majority of conference delegates to pass a
resolution opposing renewal of the OEF mandate. This,
however, seems unlikely, since the SPD party organization is
much more disciplined than the Greens. The SPD leadership
also has taken a number of steps over the last several weeks
to line up support. Further, the SPD's attention at present
is focused almost exclusively on the debate over the SPD's
domestic policy direction.

Continued misperceptions
--------------


7. (C) But while the OEF mandate looks like it will be safely
renewed in November, there continue to be a number of
misperceptions about what OEF is all about. There remains
the misperception, for example, that the bulk of civilian
casualties in Afghanistan are caused in OEF operations.
There is little appreciation for the fact that most OEF
operations are, in fact, Afghan-led operations, and not
Americans operating independently. The Germans are
interested in beefing up their contribution to the training
of the Afghan National Army(ANA),but have lots of questions
about what the Combined Security Transition Command (CSTC-A)
is doing in this regard. The October 22-23 visit to Berlin
of Principal DAS/D for International Security Affairs Mary
Beth Long and Joint Staff Deputy Director of
Politico-Military Affairs Major General Bobby Wilkes offers a
great opportunity to address these and other issues and
solidify support for renewal of the OEF mandate next month.

Worried about "loose talk" on OEF-ISAF merger
--------------


8. (C) While there has been increasing talk here about
eliminating OEF as a separate military operation in
Afghanistan and having ISAF take over all residual security
tasks, that is not part of the current OEF mandate debate.
The government position remains that the ISAF and OEF
missions are separate and distinct. Our MFA and MOD contacts
have told us repeatedly that they want to avoid any "loose
talk" in the coming month about a possible merger of the two
missions, fearing that this will only muddy the waters for
the upcoming OEF renewal debate. Once the OEF mandate is
safely through, German policy-makers may be prepared to
engage more constructively on this question.

KOENIG