Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERLIN161
2007-01-25 15:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

U.S.-EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS TROIKA AND LUNCH ON

Tags:  PGOV PREL EUN GM 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6788
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0438
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0382
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0182
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0079
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0423
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BERLIN 000161 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA AND EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN GM
SUBJECT: U.S.-EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS TROIKA AND LUNCH ON
JANUARY 12


BERLIN 00000161 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: DCM John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BERLIN 000161

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA AND EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN GM
SUBJECT: U.S.-EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS TROIKA AND LUNCH ON
JANUARY 12


BERLIN 00000161 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: DCM John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In meetings with Assistant Secretary Dan
Fried in Dresden January 12, EU Political Directors agreed on
the importance of continued U.S.-EU coordination on Kosovo,
specifically on the need to support UN Special Envoy
Ahtisaari's plan and to resist Russian pressure that might
delay or derail the process. Fried welcomed a proposed EU
police mission to Afghanistan but said the USG hoped the EU
could do more. Fried also stressed the need to strengthen
regional cooperation by reaching out to Pakistan and Central
Asia. Although Fried and German Political Director Michael
Schaefer agreed the U.S. and the EU have a Russia problem,
Schaefer said Europe needs to work with its largest neighbor.
Fried stressed the important influence Europe has on its
neighbors and the importance of reaching out to the other FSU
states to curb Russia's most pernicious tendencies. Fried
explained the President's initiative on Iraq. The Political
Directors also discussed Israel/Palestine, Iran, Sudan and
Somalia. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Assistant Secretary Dan Fried discussed Russia,
Iraq, and Afghanistan with EU Political Directors (at 27) in
Dresden January 12. In a follow-on troika meeting, Fried and
counterparts discussed the Middle East, Western Balkans,
European Neighborhood Policy, Central Asia, Sudan, Darfur,
and Somalia.

Kosovo


3. (C) German Political Director Michael Schaefer began the
troika meeting by stating the Kosovo status issue is the most
pressing problem facing Germany during the first half of its
EU presidency. He reviewed the timeline that UN Special
Envoy Marti Ahtisaari presented to EU Political Directors
earlier that morning. Ahtisaari reportedly plans to begin
the process February 2 by presenting his proposals for
resolving the status issues. The proposals will not include
an explicit recommendation on final status. Schaefer said
Ahtisaari anticipates four weeks of thorough negotiations.
Schaefer said Ahtisaari expects to incorporate suggestions

from Serbia and Kosovo into the final agreement, which would
be proposed in a new UNSC resolution in March. Schaefer
suggested either the G-8 Foreign Ministers meeting (May 30th)
or Summit (June 6-8) might be the place where a final
political agreement is reached on Kosovo's status. Fried
agreed that the G-8 would be a good forum to press the
Russians.


4. (C) Fried endorsed the expected timeline and agreed with
Schaefer that U.S.-EU unity will be essential to see the plan
to fruition. Fried expressed appreciation for the EU's
position that a new UNSCR is "absolutely necessary," but
warned the desire for a new resolution may cause Russia to
think they have us over a barrel. The EU stressed they had
made it clear to Russia that Kosovo is a unique situation and
that they consider a peaceful solution vital to European
security interests. Robert Cooper, Director General for
External Relations in the EU Council Secretariat, voiced
concern about China's position on Kosovo. Schaefer
speculated China will ultimately accept that Europe,s
security interests in the region should prevail. Schaefer
said he was more concerned that Russia will demand something
for not standing in the way. Citing Russia's preference for
the status quo, Schaefer said he did not expect Russian
demands will involve frozen conflicts. He expressed concern
that Russia will instead demand a more strategic concession,
such as agreement to keep Georgia and/or Ukraine out of NATO.
Fried and his EU counterparts agreed such demands have to be
rejected strongly.


5. (C) Looking forward , Schaefer said a Kosovo ESDP
mission would be deployed on the basis of a strong UNSCR
mandate and in close cooperation with the United States/NATO.
Schaefer anticipated that asking Russia to contribute might
help make Russia a constructive stakeholder in the process.
Cooper stated EU-NATO cooperation was better than usual on
Kosovo with good progress on intelligence sharing and crowd
control protocols. Fried said the U.S. is still considering
whether to participate in the ESDP mission. He noted a KFOR
force-level review might be possible six months after the
status decision if all is going well. Schaefer said a

BERLIN 00000161 002.2 OF 004


donors' conference would be convened after the final status
decision is made. Fried speculated the Kosovo Albanians will
remain patient as long as they see the international
community seriously engaged in resolving the status question.
All agreed that any use of the word "independence" in
relation to Kosovo would need to be closely coordinated with
Ahtisaari.


6. (C) On Serbia, Karel Kovanda, Political Director for the
Commission, said Serbia would need some tangible benefit to
ensure it did not overreact to Kosovo's increased
sovereignty. Kovanda said the Commission believes
negotiations on Serbia's SAA could restart once Serbia has a
new government, though the EU will not conclude the SAA until
Serbia demonstrates it is cooperating on ICTY. Fried and
Cooper agreed that parties may delay forming a government
immediately after the January 21 elections to avoid taking
the blame for losing Kosovo. Schaefer said Serbian President
Tadic had promised him that he would receive Ahtisaari
February 2 and reported he had instructed Serbian officials
to cooperate.

Afghanistan


7. (C) Schaefer said the EU is expected to approve a police
training mission in Afghanistan in the February General
Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) with
anticipated deployment this summer. The exact size and scope
of the mission has not been determined but Schaefer expected
it would consist of 160 officers and include a judicial
training component. Schaefer highlighted the need for a
comprehensive solution that includes civilian and military
components. Fried welcomed the police mission but said the
USG hoped the EU would do more. He noted police are
essential to Afghanistan's counter-insurgency efforts. Fried
said the key to victory lies on the political side and
promises made at the Riga summit must be fulfilled. In this
way we can decisively defeat the Taliban in the field and
keep the political initiative by extending Kabul's reach,
providing more development aid, increasing counter-narcotics
efforts, and reaching out to Pakistan.


8. (C) Fried said the government of Pakistan has a
comprehensive framework to address instability in the region
and is prepared to do more. He noted the limited EU-Pakistan
relationship and hoped Brussels would reach out to Islamabad.
Schaefer agreed the EU could do more and suggested U.S. and
European specialists should meet before the Joint Control and
Monitoring Board meetings at the end of January in Berlin.
Schaefer and Giulio Terzi di Sant'Agata, Italian Political
Director, suggested the regional approach on Afghanistan
should include Iran. Fried said the U.S. and EU should
instead look to Central Asia, where Kazakhstan has shown an
interest in becoming constructively involved.

Russia


9. (C) While noting troubling trends in Russia's internal
and external activities, Schaefer underlined Russia's
importance to Europe and said Europe has no choice but to
work with Russia. Schaefer speculated the Polish meat
dispute would soon be solved, thus allowing negotiations on
new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia
to move forward. Schaefer expected the PCA would include
language on energy security. Fried said the U.S. and EU have
a Russia problem and the trend lines are not good. He noted
the need for a serious election monitoring mission for
upcoming elections, and suggested the U.S. and EU should work
together to facilitate building a "southern" gas pipline to
get gas from Caucasia and Central Asia to Europe without
going through Russia.

FSU


10. (C) On Moldova, Schaefer and Olof Skoog, Sweden,s
Political Director, said the EU prefers to wait for a
political solution before committing to a position on an ESDP
mission to Transnistria. On Belarus, both sides cited
excellent cooperation. Fried suggested it might be time to
think about what kind of "down payment" we would demand if
Lukashenko asked for Western help. In response to EU
concerns that the Georgian leadership not aggravate the

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situation, Fried said more pressure should be exerted on
Russia while reminding Georgia that diplomacy is the only
path to a solution.

European Neighborhood Policy


11. (C) Kovanda described current thinking on the European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP),including plans to increase
funding by one-third over the next seven years and a focus on
economic integration, good governance, visa facilitation,
increased exchanges, enhanced regional cooperation, and
dialogues on energy, transport, and the environment.
Schaefer said ENP will now be more bilateral with a greater
focus on the progress individual states have made in their
relationship with the EU. The EU will work to strengthen its
relationship with eastern neighbors since it already has a
well-developed relationship with its southern neighbors.
Schaefer named Ukraine as a model for this new intensified
relationship. Fried acknowledged the EU's unwillingness to
talk about future enlargement but advised the EU not to shut
the door completely. The prospect of possible EU accession
offers non-member states hope and could prevent them from
precipitating crises in the region.

Central Asia


12. (C) Kovanda said the EU plans to launch a new Central
Asia strategy that could include elements of ENP, depending
on progress in individual states. Under the new strategy,
the EU would double its assistance budget for the region over
the next seven years with 80 percent slated for bilateral
programs and the remainder to regional ones. Schaefer said
the focus on bilateral programs was based on expressed
preferences of leaders in the region and the heterogeneous
nature of these states. He said the EU is planning a troika
meeting in the region with all five foreign ministers for
March 28. Fried welcomed the EU's renewed interest,
particularly since Russia is trying to reduce western
influence. Fried reiterated the USG does not see this as a
zero-sum game -- Central Asia will benefit from being open to
all interested parties. Fried said patience, perseverance,
and presence will pay off in the end. On Kazakhstan, both
sides agreed on the need to develop benchmarks for GOK action
before Kazakhstan assumes the OSCE CiO. The Europeans
reacted favorably to suggestions for more consultations at
the expert level, including discussing exchange programs.

Iraq


13. (C) Fried laid out the assumptions and strategy behind
the President's initiative, and stressed that success of the
Iraq compact depends upon support from everyone. Schaefer
expressed concern about the worsening humanitarian situation,
adding an end to sectarian violence is key to political and
economic reconstruction. John Sawers, UK Political Director,
agreed with Fried that most of violence is concentrated in
the capital. He said it is hard to engage Iran and Syria
when they refuse to be constructive and stressed the
importance of the Compact since economic indicators are
moving in the correct direction.

MEPP, BMENA, Iran


14. (C) Schaefer and Sawers praised the Secretary's trip to
the Middle East and its focus on Israel/Palestinian affairs.
On the EU side there was a shared belief that the Secretary
should use the trip to support Abbas to prove to the
Palestinians that cooperation will be rewarded. The EU side
also stressed the need to revitalize the Quartet by
strengthening U.S.-EU cooperation. Schaefer said Germany
will use its G-8 presidency to promote the Forum for the
Future, especially in terms of education. Schaefer noted EU
Political Directors agreed the EU should increase efforts to
promote civil society in Iran. The EU poldirs plan to
develop concrete ideas for further consideration by EU
foreign ministers at the February GAERC. Fried welcomed the
initiative, described U.S. democracy promotion efforts in
Iran, and welcomed more U.S.-EU cooperation. Schaefer
expressed interest in U.S. Farsi broadcasting and internet
activities.

Sudan

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15. (C) Fried and EU counterparts agreed that the situation
on the ground remains terrible, and that the AMIS had
numerous failings. The EU budget outlook for supporting an
extended AU mission is not good, so member state
contributions might be needed. The poldirs agreed on the
need to get those responsible for funding together as soon as
possible. Both sides agreed more cooperation from Russia and
China is needed. Schaefer said China is becoming more
pragmatic on the issue. The EU poldirs admitted the EU may
need to consider "negative measures" to pressure President
Bashir to cooperate.

Somalia


16. (C) U.S. and EU Political Directors agreed Ethiopian
troops could not stay in Somalia long, and others must come
in to avoid a vacuum. The EU prefers a UN Mission. As
Cooper put it, recalling AMIS, "We cannot test the AU to
destruction" On the January 11 air operations against
al-Qaeda in Somalia, Schaefer expressed concern -- "but not
criticism" -- about the timing and urged caution in the use
of force.


17. (U) Participants:

Mayr-Harting, Thomas AUT
Deboutte, Jean-Marie BEL
Poriazov, Valentin BGR
Evriviades, Evripides CYP
Povejsil, Martin CZE
Plesner, Liselotte DNK
Dezcallar, Rafael ESP
Orav, Aivo EST
Vierros-Villeneuve, Pilvi-Siskko FIN
Vassilopolous, Stavros GRC
Pataki, Zsolt HUN
Montgomery, Rory IRL
Jankauskas, Kestutis LTU
Lucas, Sylvie LUX
Klava, Ilgvars LVA
Inguanez, John MLT
De Gooijer, Pieter NLD
Wisniewski, Rafal POL
Bramao Ramos, Vasco PRT
Dranga, Ovidiu ROU
Benko, Bogdahn SVN
Lajcak, Miroslav SVK
Skoog, Olof SWE
Sawers, John GBR
Terzi di Sant,Agata, Giulio ITA
Kovanda, Karel EU-KOMM
Schmid, Helga EU-RS
Cooper, Robert EU-RS
Galbano, Bono EU-RS
Schaefer, Michael GER

Fried, Daniel USA
Chase, Peter USA
Koenig, John USA
Wohlers, Larry USA


TIMKEN JR