SPD CHANCELLOR CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SPD CHANCELLOR CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS

REF: BERLIN 1457

Classified By: Political M/C John Bauman for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: SPD Chairman Kurt Beck's low popularity
rating, compared to those of other senior party figures,
raises questions about who will likely be the SPD's
chancellor candidate in 2009. The most likely outcome is
that the SPD party chairman -- currently Kurt Beck -- will
eventually be the party's chancellor candidate for the next
federal elections scheduled for 2009. Historically, the
party's selection process has favored the chairman, who has
generally anointed himself, although deputy chairmen have at
times stepped in when the chairman chose not to run. Beck
and, to a lesser extent, future deputy chairmen Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Finance Minister Peer
Steinbrueck are thus best-positioned to become the SPD
chancellor candidate, unlike those not in the party's inner
circle, such as Berlin's popular Mayor Klaus Wowereit. Beck
has recently stated that he would be the one to decide who
will be the SPD chancellor candidate. End summary.

Historical Trends in the Nominating Process
--------------


2. (SBU) The SPD's chancellor candidate will not be
nominated until over one year from now. The purpose of this
message is to describe the mechanism by which the candidate
will be chosen and whom this mechanism favors. By
understanding the process, it is easier to identify who is
best positioned to become the party's chancellor candidate.
There are typically no "primaries" or other voting processes.
There is not even a prescribed procedure. Instead, the
process has usually worked, and is expected to work in the
future, as follows:


3. (U) Throughout the post-WWII period, the SPD chairman has
typically had the right of first refusal over the party's
chancellor candidacy. In effect, this has meant that the
chairman has often declared himself the candidate. This
declaration is usually made several months before the
scheduled parliamentary elections. This candidate is then
called the party's "leading candidate" ("chancellor
candidate" is actually a misnomer, because there is no direct
election for the chancellorship). The leading candidate is
then formally nominated by the party -- without a vote -- at
a party convention.


4. (U) On several exceptional occasions, the party chairman
did not become the leading candidate: Chairman Erich
Ollenhauer deferred to Willy Brandt in 1961; Brandt deferred
on three occasions to others in 1976, 1980, and 1983;
Hans-Jochen Vogel deferred in 1990 to Oscar Lafontaine; and
in 1998 Lafontaine deferred to Gerhard Schroeder. However,
these instances were largely due to unique circumstances,
such as scandal (which caused Brandt to step down as
Chancellor in 1974) or very poor prospects (Lafontaine in
1998 had previously lost a bid for the chancellery).


5. (SBU) If the party chairman decides not to run as the
leading candidate, s/he issues a recommendation to the party
presidium, which then considers the recommendation and comes
to a consensus. On only one occasion has a party-wide vote
taken place to determine an alternative candidate -- in 1994
after chairman and leading candidate Bjorn Engholm stepped
down amid scandal. On most of those occasions when the party
chairman stepped aside, the eventual nominee came from the
deputy chairman ranks -- an indication of the importance of
being in the party's inner circle for those seeking the
chancellorship nomination. Prior election success on the
state level also seems to be a major factor in choosing a
candidate when the chairman steps aside, such as in 1998
after Schroeder's electoral victory in Lower Saxony.

Kurt Beck's Prospects
--------------


6. (C) If history is any indication, and Beck is chairman of
the SPD in early 2009, he would most likely be the chancellor
candidate. Indeed, Beck has stated that no candidate will be
nominated "until (he) the chairman decides to make a
recommendation at the appropriate time" and that the decision
is his alone to make. It is conceivable that he could step
aside in favor of someone more popular, if faced with the
likely prospect of a resounding defeat. In a hypothetical
direct election for chancellor, current polls show that Beck
is currently about 35 to 40 points behind Merkel and indicate
that more SPD members would vote for Angela Merkel (CDU) than
for Beck. Despite Beck's low popularity, it is nevertheless
not out of the question that he could make up ground in the
polls. When Schroeder was chancellor, Merkel once trailed
him by about 50 points, so catching up is not unprecedented.

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Moreover, the SPD is carefully considering its platform for
issues that resonate. Globalization, the minimum wage, and
opposition to domestic security proposals recently made by
CDU Interior Minister Schaeuble are examples of issues that
could potentially favor the SPD. If Merkel and the CDU
commit a major gaffe or if external developments shift the
electorate's focus, Beck could be the beneficiary.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier's Prospects
--------------


7. (C) Steinmeier is the most popular SPD politician and the
second most popular overall, trailing only Merkel. In order
to build his party credentials, he will likely be elected as
one of three deputy party chairmen later this fall and run
for (and almost certainly win) a federal parliament seat from
Brandenburg City in 2009. The foreign minister has
increasingly spoken out on domestic issues, a sign that he
wants to become more involved in domestic politics, in line
with his rising stature within the SPD. Some pundits,
however, believe that Steinmeier's rise in the party does not
mean he is being groomed to replace Beck, but simply that the
party wants to bolster its lineup of highly regarded elders.
He has been careful not to demean Beck -- with regularity, he
emphasizes his support for Beck for the chancellorship.
Nevertheless, by virtue of his future deputy chairmanship, he
will be well-positioned for the candidacy if Beck decides not
to run. The big question hanging over his candidacy is his
total lack of prior success at the polls -- indeed, he has
never stood for elective office.

Steinbrueck and Wowereit
--------------


8. (C) Steinbrueck, who will also likely become deputy
chairman this fall, ranks as the country's third most-popular
politician, but is perhaps too associated with the centrist
reform program Agenda 2010 to be favored by the party's
leftists. Wowereit's good performance in recent opinion
polls may reflect disquiet within the SPD about the party's
and Beck's standing. It also suggests that he might be a
charismatic alternative candidate. Because he does not
occupy a position in the party leadership, however, Wowereit
is not well-positioned within the party. He is not among
those being groomed for the three deputy chairman positions
(the other person is parliamentarian Andrea Nahles). Unless
the party is in severe crisis or decides that it must align
with The Left party (an unlikely prospect as we note in
reftel),Wowereit will have a difficult and uncertain path to
the chancellorship candidacy.


9. (C) SPD sources (including strategists Stefan Ramge and
Volker Meier) confirm to us that the candidate will be
recommended by the party chairman, as is the tradition. They
add that there is currently no movement underway to displace
Beck, and despite his low poll ratings, they believe he will
eventually choose himself as the candidate.
KOENIG