GERMAN BUNDESTAG'S AFGHANISTAN MANDATE RENEWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001591

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2017
TAGS: PREL NATO GM AF MARR
SUBJECT: GERMAN BUNDESTAG'S AFGHANISTAN MANDATE RENEWAL
DEBATE SHOWS POSITIVE SIGNS

REF: BERLIN 01539

Classified By: Charge John Koenig for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Germany's debate on the future of its Afghanistan
mandates continues unabated despite the Bundestag's summer
recess. The recent unfortunate deaths of three German police
officers (who were killed when a remotely detonated mine
exploded near their vehicle) and the one-day kidnapping and
release of a German aid worker in Kabul made headlines
throughout the country, and caused some to question continued
German engagement. But most mainstream German politicians
and commentators agreed that Germany must not waver in its
support for Afghanistan in the face of aggression or
terrorism. Indeed, senior government officials involved in
Germany's activities in Afghanistan all expressed further
resolve, rather than a weakening of Germany's commitment.
Following the deaths of the German police officers, FM
Steinmeier urged continued involvement by stating "if we give
up now, then the Taliban have won." Chancellor Merkel went
on to state that "German engagement is longterm, vital, and
indispensable."


2. (C) Skeptical voices remain and will continue to make
their case against OEF. For example SPD Foreign Relations
Committee member Niels Annen (who visited Afghanistan last
week),reiterated his call for an end to German participation
in OEF. His reason for pulling out, however, was that SPD
party members oppose the mandate and U.S. forces remain
"uncooperative" there. According to SPD party contacts,
between one-third and one-half of SPD members continue to
oppose the OEF mandate. On a positive note, we are
increasingly hearing from German politicians and commentators
who recognize the breadth of OEF's role in Afghanistan,
especially for its role in training the Afghan National Army
(ANA). CDU foreign policy spokesman Eckhard von Klaeden, in
an op-ed article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ)
on August 22, highlighted the vital work OEF is doing in
Afghanistan training security forces - something unheard of
even a few months ago. SPD Chairman Kurt Beck stated
publicly his support for renewing all three of Germany's
mandates (ISAF, Tornadoes, OEF) during the upcoming Bundestag
session.


3. (C) The grand coalition leadership decided on August 20 to
merge the ISAF (3,000 personnel) and Tornado mandates (500
personnel) into one and have the Bundestag vote on them on
October 11-12 (REF A). Foreign Ministry sources have told us
they expect the merged mandate to number 3,500. Because the
Tornado deployment had required only about 200 personnel on a
continuing basis, the merger of the mandates might open up
headroom of a few hundred troops, which in principle could be
devoted to other ISAF tasks.


4. (C) At the request of SPD Chairman Kurt Beck, the
coalition government will submit the OEF mandate for a vote
in mid-November, following the SPD's October 26-28 party
convention. Beck specifically cited his desire to win
greater support of party members for OEF at the convention.
In this respect, he has aligned his political fortunes with
the OEF mandate more clearly than ever before. While the
decision to hold the OEF vote in November (rather than
merging it with the ISAF vote as earlier rumored) could
result in a protracted debate on the merits of OEF, it will
also provide the SPD leadership additional time to resolve
internal disputes over the mission.
KOENIG