Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERLIN1294
2007-07-02 10:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:  

MERKEL AFTER THE SUMMITS: THE WIND AT HER BACK

Tags:  GM PGOV PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0836
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRL #1294/01 1831020
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021020Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8675
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001294 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: MERKEL AFTER THE SUMMITS: THE WIND AT HER BACK

REF: A. BERLIN 1284

B. BERLIN 1253

C. BERLIN 1251

D. BERLIN 1093

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001294

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: MERKEL AFTER THE SUMMITS: THE WIND AT HER BACK

REF: A. BERLIN 1284

B. BERLIN 1253

C. BERLIN 1251

D. BERLIN 1093

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: After the successful conclusion of two
high-profile summit meetings in June, Angela Merkel is at a
high point of her Chancellorship. Her public support is
rising after having negotiated a climate change
"breakthrough" at the G-8 Summit and an agreement at the EU
Summit to advance the Union's structural reform (Ref A).
While she and the CDU are buoyed by encouraging poll numbers,
the SPD and its leader, Kurt Beck, continue to falter, having
failed to find an issue around which to rally and excite the
German public. The end of the EU presidency marks the start
of a new phase in the Grand Coalition, with elections (on the
state level in 2008, at the federal level in 2009) on the
visible horizon. Tensions in the coalition continue to
increase. While leaders in both parties remain committed to
the Grand Coalition through its 2009 term, they also are
emphasizing their dissatisfaction with it, underscoring that
they would prefer not to continue the coalition after the
next election. An early dissolution still is judged very
unlikely -- neither major party could be assured of a
majority coalition with one of the smaller parties. After
her foreign policy success at the G-8 and EU summits, Merkel
faces challenges in domestic policy, where the SPD will seek
to take the initiative in setting the agenda and use policy
stalemates as future campaign issues. End summary.

CDU Spin: Merkel Responsible for Summit Successes
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Having for the most part dampened expectations
prior to both summits, Merkel and the CDU are now able to
claim the summits as major successes, primarily because of
progress with the U.S. on energy and climate change and
Merkel's role in helping to avert a crisis over EU
institutional reform. Her supporters attribute these
victories to Merkel's command of detail, charm,
persuasiveness, and persistence. She is seen as having
navigated a rocky road, establishing herself as a key world

leader -- one able to negotiate hard-to-achieve settlements.
At the same time, she is seen by sympathizers as protecting
German interests. She remarked, for example, after the G-8
Summit that, "we get along well with the United States.
However, we do not check off everything the U.S. wants."
Indeed, it appears that Merkel's leadership style is, in
fact, in tune with the spirit of the times in Germany --
taking a cautious view about what Germany should do outside
Europe, focused on economic and environmental issues, and
committed to diplomatic consensus-building.

SPD Spin: Merkel and CDU Out of Touch with Germans
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The SPD -- challenged from the right by the CDU/CSU
and from the left by the new Left Party (Ref B) -- publicly
viewed the G-8 Summit outcome much more critically. Within
hours of the Summit's conclusion, SPD Chairman Kurt Beck
accused the CDU/CSU of being "neo-liberal" and out of touch
with the concerns of everyday Germans, adding that
neo-liberalism runs contrary to the principles of the social
market economy for which Germany stands. Beck was, as has
been his style, attempting again to find an issue with public
resonance at a time when Merkel appears to be solidifying her
leadership position. The CDU dismissed Beck's criticism as
evidence the SPD is simply "getting nervous." The SPD pitch
fell flat and, after the EU Summit, Beck was more
circumspect, saying simply that Merkel deserved respect and
recognition for her success at the EU Summit.


4. (C) Beck continues efforts to strike a chord with the
German public (Ref D),but he has been unsuccessful thus far
and his personal popularity has fallen further. Only about
one-third of SPD voters now approve of his performance as SPD
party leader, according to a Rheinpfalz/ARD poll. Some of
the disenchantment is likely due to backfired attempts to
search for a winning issue. His attempt last year to appeal
to the middle class -- by criticizing the long-term
unemployed -- was soon thereafter mitigated by a need to
cover the left flank after criticism by the Left Party. Beck
got some traction earlier in 2007 with his categorical
rejection of U.S. missile defense plans in Europe, but his
more recent forays into foreign policy -- such as suggesting
negotiations with "moderate" Taliban -- led some to deride
him as an "amateur foreign minister." (The relative

BERLIN 00001294 002 OF 002


popularity of Germany's real Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter
Steinmeier of the SPD, further limits Beck's opportunities to
distance the party from the Coalition on foreign policy
issues.)

German Public Strongly Supports Merkel
--------------


5. (SBU) Various polls reflect the benefits to Merkel of
global diplomacy. The CDU/CSU has gained up to two
percentage points (up to about 38 percent) in recent weeks,
extending its lead over the SPD to a range of 8 to 12
percentage points. Merkel's popularity remains strong,
according to the Forsa poll -- 54 percent of all Germans
would vote for her as chancellor if direct elections were
possible. In contrast, only 17 percent of all Germans would
vote for Beck. (Note: because the Chancellor is not
directly elected by the voters, the 54 percent figure is only
illustrative of Merkel's popularity but not indicative of the
likely outcome of a national election for the CDU/CSU. End
note) These figures indicate significant crossover potential
for Merkel. Indeed, among SPD voters, 40 percent say they
would vote for Merkel, while only 29 percent would vote for
Beck.

Growing Tensions in the Grand Coalition
--------------


6. (SBU) Halfway through the legislative period, and with
state-level elections approaching in six months, a new phase
has begun, with many in both governing parties looking toward
a post-Grand Coalition government. Volker Kauder, Chairman
of the CDU parliamentary caucus, spoke out against the
renewal of the Grand Coalition after its scheduled end in
2009, endorsing a future partnership with the FDP (Ref C).
"In the interest of democracy, grand coalitions should only
be an exception to the rule," remarked Kauder, adding,
however, that an early end to the Grand Coalition was
"unlikely." Similar statements by Beck and SPD parliamentary
caucus chief Peter Struck reflect long-standing discontent
with the Grand Coalition in the SPD, but also resignation
that it likely will survive until 2009. Electoral math
indicates that early elections would be a highly risky
proposition for both major parties. At the moment, neither
the CDU/CSU nor the SPD could form a majority coalition with
a single smaller party.


7. (C) Comment: The path is not completely rosy for Merkel.
After her successes at the G-8 and EU summits, Merkel is now
expected to deliver on the domestic front, where (despite
declining unemployment) other successes have been
painstaking. The CDU likely hopes that Merkel's summit
successes will provide a tailwind that will sustain her poll
numbers, but foreign policy victories may prove fleeting, as
public memory of the summits fades. The SPD will want for
now to claim its share of the credit for Germany's recent
success in international affairs, as it has already done in
the case of the labor market, and Foreign Minister Steinmeier
remains quite popular with the public. Our contacts at SPD
headquarters suggest the SPD will try to take the initiative
in setting the domestic agenda, using the lack of substantive
progress on issues such as the minimum wage as an indictment
of Merkel and the CDU/CSU, including in January 2008 state
elections. End comment.
TIMKEN JR