Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BERLIN1251
2007-06-22 15:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Berlin
Cable title:
WESTERWELLE CASTS FDP AS COALITION ALTERNATIVE
how-toVZCZCXRO3392 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHRL #1251 1731502 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 221502Z JUN 07 FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8618 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001251
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: WESTERWELLE CASTS FDP AS COALITION ALTERNATIVE
Classified By: Political M/C John Bauman for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001251
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: WESTERWELLE CASTS FDP AS COALITION ALTERNATIVE
Classified By: Political M/C John Bauman for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (U) Summary: Seeking to return to federal government
after a 9-year absence, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has
placed all bets on Guido Westerwelle, whom party delegates
resoundingly re-elected as national party chairman at its
national convention in Stuttgart on June 15. Westerwelle --
who received 87 percent of the votes while running unopposed
-- reportedly wishes to become Foreign Minister in the next
federal government. In an effort to win the support of more
middle class voters, the FDP promoted a family-friendly
platform and portrayed itself as a centrist coalition
alternative. The CDU's recent rise in popularity has fueled
speculation of a future CDU/FDP partnership on the national
level after the next federal elections in 2009; however the
electorate remains almost evenly divided between the CDU/FDP
and the SPD/Left/Greens. End summary.
2. (C) Juxtaposed on the same weekend as the convention of
the new Left Party (septel),the FDP championed the theme
"Freedom Instead of Socialism." Widely viewed as the party
of the affluent, promoting tax cuts and economic
competitiveness, the FDP is attempting to broaden its base by
promoting family values -- for example, it favors government
support of child care, albeit with vouchers instead of cash
payments. Curiously, the party allotted nearly a full day to
a discussion on promoting culture by way of public support of
the arts. Parliamentarian Markus Loening indicated that
Westerwelle wants the FDP to be seen as the party of culture
-- an issue which, Loening claims, has not yet been secured
by any other party. Loening admitted that the focus on
culture was unlikely, by itself, to garner more votes for the
party.
Westerwelle: The Next Foreign Minister?
--------------
3. (C) Guido Westerwelle is positioning himself to become
Foreign Minister in the next federal government, according to
Helmut Metzner, the FDP's chief campaign strategist.
Although not known in the past as a foreign policy expert,
Westerwelle has been studying foreign policy issues closely
and plans to speak extensively about such issues at the next
party convention in Munich in May 2008. According to our
contacts, if the FDP has a foreign policy role in a future
government, we can expect a commitment to trans-Atlantic
relations and to NATO as the principal security apparatus.
The FDP, and Westerwelle specifically, has been cautious
about foreign military deployments, but would likely continue
to support both OEF and ISAF in Afghanistan, with the
condition that greater attention be placed on civil
reconstruction. On missile defense, the FDP supports a
European approach to the issue.
Jockeying for a Place in the Next National Government
-------------- --------------
4. (U) Westerwelle's political future depends on bringing
the FDP back into federal government. His party expects him
to lead a successful campaign and win a place in the next
government. The most natural fit is with the CDU/CSU, with
which the FDP governed from 1982 to 1998. The FDP -- holding
steady in the polls at 8 to 10 percent -- is also considering
other constellations, such as the so-called "traffic light"
(with the SPD and the Greens) and "Jamaica" (with CDU and the
Greens) coalitions. Many inside and outside the FDP,
however, are skeptical that such three-party coalitions are
workable. For the moment, the FDP's coalition calculus
centers on criticizing the Grand Coalition as ineffective,
the CDU/CSU as too social democratic, and the SPD as too far
left.
5. (U) Comment: Appeals to the middle class might gain the
FDP some votes, but these might come mostly from CDU
supporters, and therefore not help the FDP's chances to get
back into government. (Note: Germany now is just about
evenly divided between left and right, according to polls and
Bundestag seats. End note.) Appealing to those further on
the right (i.e., the right-extremists) is neither respectable
nor under consideration. A resurgent CDU, however, which has
drawn voters into the conservative/liberal camp from the SPD,
could pull the FDP into government on its coattails. End
comment.
KOENIG
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2017
TAGS: GM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: WESTERWELLE CASTS FDP AS COALITION ALTERNATIVE
Classified By: Political M/C John Bauman for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (U) Summary: Seeking to return to federal government
after a 9-year absence, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has
placed all bets on Guido Westerwelle, whom party delegates
resoundingly re-elected as national party chairman at its
national convention in Stuttgart on June 15. Westerwelle --
who received 87 percent of the votes while running unopposed
-- reportedly wishes to become Foreign Minister in the next
federal government. In an effort to win the support of more
middle class voters, the FDP promoted a family-friendly
platform and portrayed itself as a centrist coalition
alternative. The CDU's recent rise in popularity has fueled
speculation of a future CDU/FDP partnership on the national
level after the next federal elections in 2009; however the
electorate remains almost evenly divided between the CDU/FDP
and the SPD/Left/Greens. End summary.
2. (C) Juxtaposed on the same weekend as the convention of
the new Left Party (septel),the FDP championed the theme
"Freedom Instead of Socialism." Widely viewed as the party
of the affluent, promoting tax cuts and economic
competitiveness, the FDP is attempting to broaden its base by
promoting family values -- for example, it favors government
support of child care, albeit with vouchers instead of cash
payments. Curiously, the party allotted nearly a full day to
a discussion on promoting culture by way of public support of
the arts. Parliamentarian Markus Loening indicated that
Westerwelle wants the FDP to be seen as the party of culture
-- an issue which, Loening claims, has not yet been secured
by any other party. Loening admitted that the focus on
culture was unlikely, by itself, to garner more votes for the
party.
Westerwelle: The Next Foreign Minister?
--------------
3. (C) Guido Westerwelle is positioning himself to become
Foreign Minister in the next federal government, according to
Helmut Metzner, the FDP's chief campaign strategist.
Although not known in the past as a foreign policy expert,
Westerwelle has been studying foreign policy issues closely
and plans to speak extensively about such issues at the next
party convention in Munich in May 2008. According to our
contacts, if the FDP has a foreign policy role in a future
government, we can expect a commitment to trans-Atlantic
relations and to NATO as the principal security apparatus.
The FDP, and Westerwelle specifically, has been cautious
about foreign military deployments, but would likely continue
to support both OEF and ISAF in Afghanistan, with the
condition that greater attention be placed on civil
reconstruction. On missile defense, the FDP supports a
European approach to the issue.
Jockeying for a Place in the Next National Government
-------------- --------------
4. (U) Westerwelle's political future depends on bringing
the FDP back into federal government. His party expects him
to lead a successful campaign and win a place in the next
government. The most natural fit is with the CDU/CSU, with
which the FDP governed from 1982 to 1998. The FDP -- holding
steady in the polls at 8 to 10 percent -- is also considering
other constellations, such as the so-called "traffic light"
(with the SPD and the Greens) and "Jamaica" (with CDU and the
Greens) coalitions. Many inside and outside the FDP,
however, are skeptical that such three-party coalitions are
workable. For the moment, the FDP's coalition calculus
centers on criticizing the Grand Coalition as ineffective,
the CDU/CSU as too social democratic, and the SPD as too far
left.
5. (U) Comment: Appeals to the middle class might gain the
FDP some votes, but these might come mostly from CDU
supporters, and therefore not help the FDP's chances to get
back into government. (Note: Germany now is just about
evenly divided between left and right, according to polls and
Bundestag seats. End note.) Appealing to those further on
the right (i.e., the right-extremists) is neither respectable
nor under consideration. A resurgent CDU, however, which has
drawn voters into the conservative/liberal camp from the SPD,
could pull the FDP into government on its coattails. End
comment.
KOENIG