GERMANY'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ON THE EDGE OF ...

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ON THE EDGE OF ...
RECOVERY?

REF: (A) BERLIN 747 AND PREVIOUS (B) HAMBURG 35

Classified By: PolCouns John Bauman. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) is
showing early signs of a recovery after six months of
declining fortunes. Though polls do not yet indicate a shift
in the public mood, party leaders are taking steps to
reassert discipline and unify the party; some party themes
seem to be catching on; the change of government in Bremen
has refreshed a party tired of Grand Coalitions; and even the
media is showing early signs of tiring of its "bash-the-SPD"
headlines of the last six months. With Chancellor Merkel
losing her EU pulpit and with a new SPD program due to be
launched in the fall, the prospects are good for at least
some recovery in the SPD's fortunes. End Summary.

No Way But Up?
--------------


2. (C) Kerstin Griese, MdB, one of the leaders of the SPD's
centrist "Network" group, jokingly told us that the party's
mood and opinion poll standings have been so low there is no
way to go but up. But she went on to introduce several
concerted steps the SPD has taken that she believes will
quiet the party's internal squabbles and reimpose discipline.
First among these was Chairman Beck's decision to reduce to
three the number of party Deputy Chairmen and to fill those
slots with three publicly prominent figures - Finance
Minister Peer Steinbrueck party left-wing leader Andrea
Nahles, and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The
move garnered several days of largely positive press
coverage, and was widely applauded in SPD circles. Griese
also reported that SPD Bundestag caucus Chief Struck is
making an all-out effort to ensure maximum party discipline
when the vote to renew Germany's Afghanistan mandates comes
up in the fall. Struck is encouraging fact-finding travel to
Afghanistan by Bundestag members and is pressing the issue
within the Bundestag. Griese is confident that the number of
SPD defections will be much lower than the 69 recorded for
the Tornado deployment vote in April. She also noted that
the number of "nos" in the SPD caucus on the government's
corporate tax reform plans was lower (about 20) than expected.


3. (C) The party has also found one theme that has struck a
chord with the public and which also unites all strands of
the party: introducing a minimum wage. Benjamin Mikfeld,
chief for planning and programs at SPD headquarters, noted
that the SPD had succeeded in making this a major theme at
May Day rallies, somewhat eclipsing the union-led campaign
against raising the retirement age to 67. The SPD is now
opening a public relations campaign on the issue. The SPD's
new chief for domestic policy, Stefan Ramge, also reported
that the party now plans to launch a new push on the
environment and energy policy, linking it to job creation as
well. Just before the summer holidays, on June 23, the party
will hold a "Future Congress" in Hanover to showcase these
and other policies and to outline the party's new "Basic
Program." Though our contacts tell us they do not believe
the missile defense/disarmament campaign launched by party
Chairman Beck has much staying power, the party clearly feels
that it is worth the effort in the near term, and at a
minimum it is worthwhile for the SPD to balance its support
for the less popular Afghanistan mandates with a disarmament
message. In October, the SPD will have another opportunity
to dominate headlines, when the party convention meets in
Hamburg to adopt the new Basic Program and elect/re-elect the
party leadership.


4. (C) While not a major issue over the long term, the
national SPD has also welcomed the Bremen party's decision to
end its twelve-year Grand Coalition in favor of an SPD-Greens
coalition. As Ref B notes, this moves serves several SPD
agendas. Our contacts also suggest that German media, whose
coverage of party politics tends to swing irregularly, is
likely ready for a change. Mikfeld noted that the media had
greeted Beck's accession a year ago with a series of positive
stories, and that the most recent coverage (of, for example,
the leadership reshuffle) had been positive. In an interview
published May 26 in "Der Spiegel," Beck dealt aggressively
with the Left Party and questions about his own leadership,
and defended the SPD's role in the Grand Coalition while
criticizing the CDU/CSU on several policy issues. Our SPD
contacts also suggest that the end of the EU Presidency
offers the SPD an opportunity to get back into the headlines
-- Steinmeier's elevation to the party leadership can help in
this regard.

Realism
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BERLIN 00001093 002 OF 002



5. (C) No one is predicting a reversal of fortunes. Griese
told us she did not expect the SPD to win either the Lower
Saxony or Hesse elections in January; this is the view of our
other contacts as well. Ramge held out some hope for SPD
success in Hamburg, but acknowledged that Minister-President
von Beust is personally very popular. Mikfeld admitted that
as long as the CDU's von der Leyen was in charge of family
policy, the SPD could gain little traction, even though the
daycare ideas she has espoused had originally come from the
SPD. He also accepts that the CDU and Merkel will get the
lion's share of credit for Germany's good economic
performance over the last year. The CDU will also hold its
own convention and adopt a new Basic Program in December
The party also acknowledges the threat of the new Left Party
(at 12 percent in one recent poll) among some of its
traditional core constituents and has yet to develop a
strategy for responding to it. Nonetheless, all our contacts
were optimistic that the relative decline of the SPD could be
halted and reversed.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) We would agree that the timing and factors for an SPD
upswing are in place. The success of a new SPD offensive
will lie as much in the hands of the media as in its own, of
course. News cycles in the German media do seem to coincide
with the holiday schedule, so it is important to keep in mind
that there are many holidays between now and 2009 and there
may be as many twists and turns in media appraisals of the
SPD (and CDU/CSU). End Comment.
TIMKEN JR