BELIZE: PREPARING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000614

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - ROIS BEAL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: PREPARING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS

REF: BELMOPAN 0287

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Belize will call national elections between January and
March 2008. Belize's two major political parties have swapped power
peacefully since acquiring independence in 1981. In the upcoming
elections, the House of Representatives will expand from 29 to 31
seats. Despite efforts in recent post elections, third party
movements have yet to win any seats. Observers predict recent
scandals may result in a runaway opposition victory. However, the
opposition seems less organized, appears to be worse off
financially, and lacks a coherent message for change. End Summary.

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The Parties
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2. (U) Belize's two major political parties are the People's United
Party (PUP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP). Third party
movements have periodically formed but have generally been
disorganized and have yet to win any seats in parliament. The
election is required to be held prior to March 5, 2008, and the
Prime Minister recently announced that the elections will not take
place before Christmas.

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Political Background
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3. (U) The Belize Government is controlled by the PUP, which has
held power for two consecutive 5-year terms since 1998. The PUP
currently holds 21 of the 29 seats in the House of Representatives,
while the UDP holds the other eight seats. Belize has a history of
peaceful exchange of power since independence in 1981 with the UDP
controlling the government from 1993-98 and from 1984-89. Aside
from the two UDP terms, the PUP has dominated the electoral scene
for more than 30 years and was the party that primarily agitated for
independence.


4. (U) In the upcoming elections, the House of Representatives will
expand from 29 to 31 seats. This will accommodate the growing
population while maintaining the size of the constituencies which
average approximately three to five thousand voters. The Belizean
electorate is historically very active with nearly 80% registered
voter turnout.


5. (U) Traditionally, the party in power holds some advantage as
they are able to deliver a flurry of governmental services just
before calling for elections. This election is no exception as
there has been a recent spurt of new public spending on free school
textbooks, mortgage subsidies, forgiveness of student loans,
infrastructure development and promises of a universal health
initiative.

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Comment
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6. (SBU) The public seems fed up with numerous financial scandals
and believe that there has been a substantial increase in the level
of corruption over the past several years. Many observers predict
that recent scandals will result in a runaway opposition victory.
However, post interviews with UDP candidates have yet to inspire
confidence, and the leader of the opposition told the Ambassador
that he expects a very close, hard-fought race (reftel). The UDP
seems less organized and appears to be worse off financially than
the PUP. The PUP is relying on organization, financial advantage,
and the ability to control government services. The PUP is
campaigning on the theme that the UDP is not competent to run a
national government. The UDP is running a purely anti-government,
anti-corruption campaign. Although the UDP has announced several
proposed reforms, it has not campaigned vigorously on a reform
platform hoping, it seems, to win by default.

DIETER