BELIZE: OPPOSITION LEADER DISCUSSES THE WAY AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELMOPAN 000287

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ECON BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: OPPOSITION LEADER DISCUSSES THE WAY AHEAD

Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Dieter for reason 1.5(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition leader Dean Barrow told us that
he expects victory in the upcoming election but is taking
nothing for granted. Government corruption and a "reform
agenda" will be his main issues in the campaign. He foresees
good relations with the U.S., believes momentum is building
for progress on the Belize-Guatemala border issue and does
not plan any changes in relations with Taiwan. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Appearing relaxed and candid, opposition United
Democratic Party (UDP) leader Dean Barrow met with Ambassador
and DCM over lunch April 26 for a wide-ranging discussion of
domestic politics, the economy, foreign relations, and
changes likely to occur in Belize if the UDP wins the next
election.

DOMESTIC POLITICS: ELECTION ISSUES
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Barrow said that, while many early signs had been
pointing toward a November election, he now saw indications
that the Prime Minister Said Musa's People's United Party
(PUP) government would try to stay in office until its term
expired in early 2008. Barrow's analysis of the recent
village council elections was that the PUP, although subject
to a lot of bad press recently and trailing badly in every
poll that has been released, was not going to go down without
a fight. He said that he expected no seat to be won easily
and estimated that the UDP could get a majority of 18 to 20
of the 31 seats in the National Assembly.


4. (C) As far as campaign issues, Barrow saw corruption
scandals and the "reform agenda" as the UDP's main selling
points. Asked how he would overcome voter cynicism that a
UDP victory would simply change one set of crooks for another
he acknowledged the point but said he would run on his
personal record and also on a platform that would include new
good governance legislation as well as the creation of a
"Transparency Commission" made up of civil society to improve
accountability. He acknowledged past UDP failures in this
area, ascribing most of the problems to former leader Manuel
Esquivel's management style: Esquivel himself was
"completely clean" but preferred not to micro-manage his
ministers and as a result suffered through several
high-profile corruption scandals in his Cabinet. Barrow made
it clear that he intended to be a much more hands-on manager
as PM. He said that the UDP's platform was still being
crafted but that he hoped fiscal constraints would allow him
to propose some sort of school
feeding program and assistance for entrepreneurs aimed at
single mothers.


5. (C) When complimented on his Spanish in a recent
campaign ad, Barrow laughed and said that the changing
demographics of Belize required it. The electorate now had a
majority of Spanish speakers, and it was not credible for a
leader to claim to represent the country without being at
least conversant in the language that wasn't his mother
tongue. He commented that race also was a factor, saying
that as a black man he had to make the effort to speak
Spanish to appeal to Hispanic voters.


6. (C) Asked about UDP views on taxation of the oil sector,
Barrow said that he had taken the Government at its word when
they said that they had consulted experts and had set an
appropriate level of taxation for oil producers. He had been
surprised when the Government Leader in the Senate had
subsequently insisted on raising tax rates and making them
retroactive. At that point, he said, the UDP assumed bad
faith of some sort and began calling for higher rates as
well. He said he had met with the head of Belize Natural
Energy -- currently the sole energy producer in the country
-- and understood their requirement for clear rules on
taxation. (NOTE: The vast majority of investment in energy
exploration in Belize is from the U.S. We have made the
point to the Government that unpredictable, retroactive tax
regimes are a negative incentive for other firms looking for
energy here. END NOTE.)

CORRUPTION SCANDALS
--------------


7. (C) Commenting on the current round of scandals
engulfing the PUP, Barrow said that the press had done a good
job of exposing issues and raising public awareness. As a
result of the scrutiny the government, after weeks of
claiming that the agreement was confidential, had finally
made available for his inspection the loan guarantee it had
provided for the debt of bankrupt private company Universal
Health Services (UHS). Barrow noted that the law required
the House to vote to approve public debt, so that the UHS
agreement would have to come up for approval. At least one
Cabinet Minister was already on record as opposing the
guarantee, so there was a possibility that a vote on the UHS
deal could split the PUP caucus. Barrow thought, however,
that in the end party discipline would prevail and the
government would not fall over the issue. (NOTE: A total of
five ministers have now publicly stated their opposition to
the guarantee.)


8. (C) Barrow said he found it puzzling that PM Musa --
whom he described as a likeable man with a good sense of
humor -- found himself associated with so much scandal. It
was hard to see, he commented, how Musa had come to the point
where his name was usually associated with terms like "liar"
and "dissembling."

FOREIGN POLICY: STAY THE COURSE
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Barrow, who spent several weeks in Guatemala last
fall taking an intensive Spanish course, said that he saw an
ICJ referral for the border dispute as the only way forward.
Further negotiations would be "sterile," since both
countries' positions were well-developed and in the end
seemed irreconcilable. As a lawyer, he said, he recognized
that there was always a risk in litigation but that Belize's
case was strong. He said that elections in both Belize and
Guatemala complicated the equation and agreed that the need
for referenda in both countries added an additional electoral
wild card to the mix. He remained optimistic, however, and
appreciated the Ambassador's information that there seemed to
be movement on the resettlement of the village of Santa Rosa
(SEPTEL). He said that Belize's negotiator for Guatemala,
Assad Shoman, was a "smart fellow." Barrow said that he
personally would have no problem keeping Shoman in the
position but believed that if he did so he would cause a
revolt among his party's "radicals" who saw Shoman as an
unreconstructed socialist and too much of a crony of PM Musa.
In any event,he said, if the case went to the ICJ the need for a
negotiator disappeared. Surprisingly, he was not aware of
plans to improve the road leading to the Guatemalan border in
the south.


10. (C) Asked where he saw U.S. relations going if he were
to become Prime Minister, Barrow said the he could see no
major irritants looming. He described his party's politics
as "conservative." He appreciated the assistance that the
USG provided to Belize, noting that despite the closing of
USAID's office here we seemed to be doing as much as we could
within the limits of our resources, and said that at this
point he had no specific suggestions of what else the USG
could do to help the country. Relations with Mexico, he
said, were good and would remain so, despite occasional
frustrations.


11. (C) Barrow brought up the subject of Taiwan, saying
that the UDP had previously established relations with the
PRC. The PUP had later switched to Taiwan, and there was
concern when the UDP came back to office that they would
switch back again. Barrow said, however, that he was
convinced that the relationship with Taiwan offered the most
for Belize. He had traveled to the PRC with former PM
Esquivel and although they were treated well the Chinese
promises of economic and business development had never
materialized. He said that although it might sound crass,
the Taiwanese were willing to do more for Belize and so the
UDP had no thought of establishing relations with the PRC.

BIOGRAPHIC NOTES
--------------


12. (C) Barrow mentioned several times in our conversation
that he was 56 and said that this would likely be his last
election. (COMMENT: He has reportedly said this before
other elections, too. END COMMENT.) He said that he would
be taking a leave of absence from his law firm when the court
took its summer recess so that he could devote his full
attention to politics and the upcoming campaign. He
mentioned a son who is a rap musician serving time in prison
in the U.S. for a 1999 shooting in New York involving Sean
Combs and Jennifer Lopez.
DIETER