DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION STILL POLITICAL FOOTBALL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000997

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM SR
SUBJECT: DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION STILL POLITICAL FOOTBALL

REF: BELGRADE 785

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Special prosecutor for organized crime Slobodan
Radovinovic has opened an investigation into the political
background of late Serbian PM Djindjic's assassination in response
to competing accusations between the LDP and the DSS over who bore
ultimate responsibility for creating the conditions under which such
a killing could take place. This latest episode will have little
bearing on the Djindjic legacy, but it is a telling statement of the
continued willingness of political parties to use the media and the
courts as political tools in the absence of developed political
institutions. END SUMMARY.

LEGIJA SENTENCING OPENS NEW CAN OF WORMS
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2. (U) One month after the Special Court (SC) in Belgrade handed
down maximum sentences to the perpetrators of the March, 2003
assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic (ref),special
prosecutor for organized crime Slobodan Radovanovic opened an
investigation into the political background of the crime.


3. (U) Radovanovic announced that he had formed a special working
group to investigate whether or not criminal or political interests
had a role in the assassination. He vowed to arrest anyone found to
have been part of any conspiracy associated with the PM's murder,
highlighting that he would closely investigate the circumstances
surrounding the illegal release from prison of a group of criminals
from the "Zemun clan" who, with logistical support from the Serbian
Interior Ministry's Special Operations Unit (JSO),later organized
Djindjic's murder. Radovanovic further explained that his office
would investigate the 2002 JSO "mutiny" to determine if it
constituted a political challenge to the state or was merely a labor
dispute.


4. (U) A formal investigation into the circumstances surrounding
Djindjic's murder has been a long-standing request of the lawyers of
the Djindjic family as well as of Djindjic's two closest associates
- Cedomir Jovanovic, deputy PM in post-Djindjic's government (now an
MP and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party),and Vladimir "Beba"
Popovic, businessman and former chief of Djindjic's communications
bureau. Jovanovic and Popovic have consistently maintained that the
main instigators of the murder included PM Kostunica and his
advisors. In her public explanation of the verdict in the Djindjic
case, Judge Mesarevic specified that the panel of judges did not
take up the question of the political circumstances surrounding the
murder, as requested by Djindjic's lawyers, as it was not part of
the original indictment. However, the judge encouraged the
possibility of opening such an investigation and, if appropriate,
convicting and sentencing individuals who might have ordered or
inspired the crime.

ANATOMY OF A CONSPIRACY: LDP VERSION
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5. (SBU) Djindjic's closest allies, led by Jovanovic and Popovic,
claim that the critical predecessor to subsequent events, notably
the coordinated anti-government media campaign run by Kostunica
advisor (and current head of RTS) Aleksander Tijanic and,
ultimately, Djindjic's murder, was the 2002 JSO "mutiny." For 5 days
starting November 8, hundreds of heavily armed, uniformed JSO
officers staged protests, including blocking traffic in Belgrade
November 11. The JSO demanded the replacement of top officials in
the Interior Ministry and the State Security Agency. This "mutiny"
was characterized by then-FRY President Kostunica as "a regular
protest of dissatisfied state employees in their everyday gear,"
though many analysts and journalists saw it as a direct challenge to
the PM's authority, with Kostunica's toleration of the mutiny and
refusal to call out troops to intervene seen as tantamount to
support for the mutiny against the PM. The incident ended with
Djindjic accepting most of the JSO demands, including replacement of
the director and the deputy of the State Security Agency. Zvezdan
Jovanovic, who fired the bullet that killed Djindjic, was an active
duty JSO commander when he shot the PM, while Milorad Lukovic
"Legija," who organized the assassination, was the retired
commander-in-chief of the unit.

ANATOMY OF A CONSPIRACY: DSS VERSION
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6. (SBU) According to Radovanovic, the initiative for investigating
the political background of Djindjic's murder came from information
produced as a result of the indictment and arrests of several
individuals connected with a tobacco smuggling affair. In 2003,
Serbian police opened an investigation, codenamed "Operation
Network," of at least eight tobacco smuggling groups that were
active in the Balkans in the 1990's. Most of these groups operated
under the patronage of Milosevic's secret service and their illegal
profits were used for financing the regime and the accumulation of

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personal wealth. The "Network" file had been in cold storage until
early June, 2007, when police arrested eight persons and issued
international warrants for a number of others. The most significant
names that are still at large but connected with this case are
controversial businessman Stanko Subotic "Cane" as a leader of one
smuggling group (see bio notes at end) and Milosevic's wife and son
Mira Markovic and Marko Milosevic as leaders of a second group.


7. (SBU) Immediately after the arrests of Subotic's business
associates, some media re-opened stories about his connection with
Djindjic. Former DOS Interior Minister, Dusan Mihajlovic, was
identified by the media as the source who leaked information to
Subotic on "Network" in 2003. In response, Mihajlovic attacked
Popovic, who introduced Subotic to Mihajlovic, and accused Jovanovic
of using his influence to secure the early release from prison of
members of Zemun criminal clan in November, 2002, just four months
before they killed Djindjic. Many of Serbia's main media outlets,
including dailies Press, Kurir, Vecernje Novosti and even
pro-government Politika, weekly Standard and NIN, and the public
broadcasting service TV RTS have all given wide coverage to
Mihajlovic's claims.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (SBU) Four years after the fact, and with the perpetrators
convicted, Djindjic's assassination remains a powerful weapon to be
used by all sides in the intensely personal power politics of
Serbia. The democratic opposition (which includes many ex-Djindjic
supporters and officials) saw the Legija conviction as an opening to
pursue claims long held against the DSS and PM Kostunica for the
role they believe Kostunica played in inciting the JSO to kill the
then-PM.


9. (SBU) The DSS, in turn, has used the fortuitously-timed
re-opening of the "Network" case to launch a vicious media campaign
against Jovanovic and Popovic, personal enemies of high-ranking
people in the DSS (the "Network" investigation also implicates
former Montenegrin PM Milo Djukanovic, another DSS enemy). Some in
the journalistic and analytical communities have remarked that this
kind of media campaign resembles that against Djindjic and his
government in 2002/03. They note that the indictment for the
tobacco smuggling operation was on hold for almost four years, and
so far is directed against only two out of eight smuggling groups.
It is also suspicious, they say, that despite the repeated requests
by Djindjic's lawyers to expand the investigation of the
assassination to include the political background, the special
prosecutor initiated the investigation only after Mihajlovic accused
Jovanovic of connections with the Zemun clan.


10. (SBU) Tadic's DS, meanwhile, seems to be content to enjoy the
show. The DS is certainly unlikely to leap to the support of their
biggest political rivals in the LDP. Moreover, Tadic would be
thrilled to have Popovic discredited, especially as rumors intensify
in Belgrade that Popovic may be preparing to reveal "proof" that
Tadic was an informer for the VBA while a prominent member of the
student movement.


11. (SBU) It is unlikely that the investigation into the political
circumstances surrounding Djindjic's assassination will produce
concrete results. Radovanovic's objectivity is questionable, given
that he was directly appointed by the BIA and the DSS to replace the
original Organized Crime Prosecutor, the extremely capable Jovan
Prijic. As so often before, this episode is another sad reminder of
the willingness of political parties in Serbia - absent developed
political institutions - to manipulate the courts and the media to
act out personal vendettas. Getting to the truth of the Djindjic
case will remain secondary to using it to damage political
opponents. END COMMENT.

BIO NOTES: STANKO SUBOTIC "CANE"
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12. (SBU) According to available open sources and media, Subotic
started his career in the Paris fashion industry in the late 1980's.
With the assistance of the head of Serbian Intelligence Jovica
Stanisic and the director of customs Mihalj Kertez - both close
Milosevic associates - Subotic established in the 1990's a
widespread cigarette smuggling ring involving Macedonia, Bulgaria,
Hungary, Kosovo, and Croatia, with Serbia and Montenegro as final
destinations. This is the same ring that former Montenegro PM
Djukanovic was allegedly involved in. Part of the profit from the
operation went to Stanisic, but Subotic also established good
connections with the Serbian democratic opposition (DOS),especially
with the Democratic Party and with people close to Zoran Djindjic.
When DOS ousted Milosevic in October, 2000, and the state ceased its
support for smuggling operations, Subotic legalized his activities,
mostly through privatization of the two biggest chains of kiosks,
which secured virtually the entire Serbian market of newspaper and
cigarette distribution. It is something of an open secret that
Subotic generously supported both post-Milosevic democratic
governments, Djindjic's and Kostunica's.

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POLT