KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: RHETORIC HARDENS AS A/S FRIED AND FM

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SUBJECT: KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: RHETORIC HARDENS AS A/S FRIED AND FM
KOUCHNER VISIT BELGRADE



1. SUMMARY: A/S Fried and the French Foreign Minister both came to
Belgrade this week to offer an additional 120 days of engagement on
Kosovo, but also to confirm to Belgrade that without an agreement of
the parties, Kosovo will be independent. Both men expressed U.S.
and French eagerness to help Serbia in the aftermath of a Kosovo
decision. (A/S Fried's visit reported septel.) Both visitors
received the same myopic response from Serbian leaders: Kosovo
independence is unacceptable, illegal and will endanger Serbia
continuing as a democratic state. Meanwhile, Serbian leaders
categorically and preemptively rejected the latest UNSC draft
resolution on the grounds that it proposes talks with a defined end
and based on the Ahtisaari plan. The Kosovo Ministry is scrambling
to corral the major political parties, including the Radicals, to
agree on a renewed mandate for the GOS' Kosovo policy and
participation in new talks on the basis of strict adherence to
Serbia's "territorial integrity." END SUMMARY.


KOUCHNER VISITS BELGRADE
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2. (SBU) French Foreign Minister Kouchner met in a two day visit to
Belgrade with President Tadic, Prime Minister Kostunica, Foreign
Minister Jeremic and Deputy Prime Minister Djelic. He also engaged
with members of Serbia's intellectual elite and a group of young
Serbians. The French Ambassador said that Kouchner delivered three
clear messages: Serbia should accept the (about to be tabled) new
UNSCR resolution allowing for a new period of negotiation; if at the
end of that period, no agreement was reached, France will support
implementation of the Ahtisaari Plan; and finally, France fully
supported Serbia's EU future, but in order for Serbia to enter the
Union, it must have resolved the Kosovo status question.


3. (SBU) The GOS reaction was as tiresome as it was predictable.
Kostunica offered his standard legal argument to which Kouchner
replied to Kostunica's chagrin that international law was not a
static element, but had to evolve with realities on the ground.
Tadic (supported by his foreign minister) argued his standard
destabilization argument, along with his usual prediction of
endangerment of Serbian democracy. To these concerns Kouchner
responded that Kosovo settlement along Ahtisaari lines actually
added, not detracted from stability and that France's position was
based on friendship for Serbia -- an assertion that went over about
as well as our own comments along exactly those lines.


4. (SBU) Kouchner's assessment of his conversations in Belgrade was
that Tadic called anxiously for a Kosovo solution, but had nothing
to offer. Neither did his Foreign Minister or Kostunica.
Commenting on Belgrade's rejection of a new UNSCR, Kouchner
sarcastically noted that Serbia had asked for new negotiations
without preconditions. This resolution offered just that and now
Belgrade wanted to add its own precondition that it would only
negotiate on explicit reference to UNSCR 1244. In Kouchner's working
lunch with Jeremic and working dinner with Tadic, he probed the
issue of partition and received a clear no. In his conversation
with Belgrade's thinking elite, Kouchner received the strong message
that Serbia needed the international community to decide Kosovo,
since it was unable to do so.


5. (SBU) The French conclusion from the Kouchner visit is that
Belgrade is continuing to make steps in the wrong direction. In an
aside to the Ambassador, the French Ambassador relayed Kouchner's
deep satisfaction over his strong relationship with Secretary Rice
and France's determination to go forward with the U.S. if this final
attempt fails.


GOVERNMENT ACTIVITY
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6. (SBU) In a meeting with poloff on July 13, Kosovo Ministry State
Secretary Dusan Prorokovic laid out the Ministry's next steps on

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Kosovo. He said the GOS' redlines on any new talks are that they
must have "no timelines, no Ahtisaari and no Ahtisaari plan as its
basis." Prorokovic assessed that there are "interesting proposals
out there" including talks under the auspices of the Contact Group
or a U.S.-EU-Russia joint framework. When reminded that the GOS had
agreed to Ahtisaari's appointment in the first place, Prorokovic
said Serbia had done so "to show it was willing to engage" in talks,
but that it had become apparent that Ahtisaari "had his mind set" on
independence during the talks. According to Prorokovic, the GOS
does not wish to postpone talks but does want to delay a deadline
for implementing a solution they don't want.


7. (SBU) The Ministry's main task at the moment is to work with all
the major political parties to come to an agreement on a new
negotiating platform to be discussed by parliament on July 24. On
July 13, Prorokovic said they would be talking with the Radicals,

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who want the parliament to include stated consequences to a
unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo, and GOS policy
towards countries that recognize it. Prorokovic said that Minister
Samardzic was trying to avoid such references as it limits GOS
policy, and admitted that this was exactly what the Radicals are
seeking to do. He also admitted, however, that there are no major
Kosovo policy differences between the SRS and DSS.


8. (SBU) The Ministry's ultimate goal for the upcoming parliamentary
session will be to re-approve the negotiating platform and renew the
mandate for the GOS to participate in negotiations. The Kosovo
Ministry, per the law on ministries passed in May 2007, would
oversee the composition of the new negotiating team. Prorokovic
assessed that it would still include the PM and President as the
chief representatives, along with the Kosovo and Foreign Ministers.
Referring to prominent Kosovo Serbs who were on the previous team as
"party representatives from Kosovo," Prorokovic was not sure they
would be included and that he preferred "experts" on issues such as
Gordana Markovic and Aleksandra Fulgosi (both for cultural and
religious protection issues),Dusko Celic (on decentralization) and
agreed the Orthodox Church would be involved "primarily through
Bishop Artemije."


OTHER DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY
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9. (SBU) UNMIK: Our Econ chief met on July 12 with Fayez Risheg
(protect throughout),UNMIK Pillar IV representative in Belgrade, to
discuss the status of economic issues between Kosovo and Serbia.
Risheg used the opportunity to spin his doomsday scenario for the
coming months. He sees continuing EU reluctance to act without a
Security Council resolution gradually dissolving as the current
deadlock drags out over the next 12 months. The only realistic
scenario then, in his view, would be a unilateral declaration of
independence by Pristina, followed by rapid recognition by Quint,
and insertion of an EU mission on request of Pristina authorities.
The Serbian reaction, he argued, would be hardline, a shutdown of
the border and ejection of UNMIK police and customs by Serb enclave
paramilitaries, in effect, eliminating the ABL, moving the boarder
south to the Ibar, and establishing de facto partition. The Serbs
would be happy to leave responsibility for the enclaves on the
international community, he noted. Risheg, who meets with Belgrade
officials on a regular basis, believes this is the Serbian Plan B.


10. (U) NATO: NATO Secretary General Scheffer arrived in Belgrade on
July 13 for a one-day visit during which he will see the President,
Prime Minister, Defense and Foreign Ministers and Chief of Defense
Staff Ponos.


11. (U) Russia: Local press gave widespread coverage to comments
this week by Russian FM Lavrov who renewed his call on July 13 for
more Kosovo talks with "independent international mediators."


12. (U) UK: On July 10, a British parliamentary delegation visited
the Serbian Parliament to acquaint itself with the relations between
Belgrade and the EU and Serbia's Kosovo policy. They met with the
Deputy Speaker Radoljko Obradovic, a delegation from the Serbian
Parliament's foreign affairs and European integrations committees
headed by MP Dragoljub Micunovic.


13. (U) EU: According to local media the EU Enlargement Commissioner
Olli Rehn warned in Strasburg that postponement of defining Kosovo
final status at the UN Security Council "would not lead anywhere".


14. (U) Slovenia: Local media reported Slovenian FM Rupel's July 12
comments in London that Slovenia supports the Ahtisaari plan as "the
only sensible option" for a multi-ethnic Kosovo.


15. (SBU) COMMENT: Kostunica's strategy this week was clear --
reject any development from the USG, the Europeans, or the UN which
did not meet his very specific demand: talks without Ahtisaari,
without end, and with 1244 in place. Still, however, he seeks to
assure the international community that Serbia is willing to engage
constructively in a process to resolve Kosovo status. By leaping
out in front of Russia to reject UNSC resolutions before they are
submitted, and by spurning overtures of goodwill from senior
representatives from the USG and France, Kostunica has shown again
that he is not serious about engaging on Kosovo. Tadic and his team
are equally unenthusiastic and in addition, unable, to carry a new
Serbian position. END COMMENT.

POLT