KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: BELGRADE PREPARES FOR NEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000958

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: BELGRADE PREPARES FOR NEW
NEGOTIATIONS



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Without hard news on Kosovo out of Kennebunkport,
Serbian media filled the vacuum with speculation about new status
negotiations. Serbian officials doggedly continued their diplomatic
offensive abroad and political entrenchment at home. Partition of
Kosovo crept back into the news vacuum but the GOS immediately
denounced the concept publicly. Foreign Minister Jeremic traveled
around Europe pressing Serbia's case on Kosovo. Meanwhile, Prime
Minister Kostunica worked on lining up the political forces at home
to ensure parliamentary approval for his Kosovo policy. END
SUMMARY.


REACTIONS TO THE MAINE EVENT
--------------


2. (U) Serbian officials downplayed earlier high expectations about
Kennebunkport as it became clear that the only Kosovo-related news
was that both leaders would delegate discussions on the issue to
their top diplomats. Earlier, PM Kostunica called the meeting "an
important opportunity" to open "a new page" on Kosovo status.
Kostunica had expected the leaders to call for "new negotiations,
with an aim of reaching a compromise and mutually acceptable
solution that would be in accordance with basic principles of
international law." Minister for Kosovo Samardzic expected Putin to
request continuing the talks, saying that Serbia was "positive that
President Putin will both stand on his principles and also be
persuasive in his stance." After Kennebunkport, the mood was more
subdued. Kostunica and Samardzic did not mention the Kennebunkport
meeting after it occurred. Kostunica's party spokesperson
backpedaled on July 2 calling the meeting only a "possible turning
point," and "a small success and a step toward...justice."


3. (U) All Serbian media reported National Security Advisor Hadley's
statement to the press that the President and Putin discussed Kosovo
but that "it is a question that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov will spend a lot
of time on." RTS also reported the Department spokesperson's
indication that there is no deadline for reaching a decision on
Kosovo's status in the UNSC. Media reported the lack of any mention
of Kosovo at the leaders' joint press conference.


PM WORKS KOSOVO AT HOME; FM & PRESIDENT AWAY
--------------


4. (U) Kostunica shifted the nationalist rhetoric he used in the
run-up to Kennebunkport and to language aimed at securing
parliamentary support for his Kosovo policy. On July 3, the PM
announced he would ask parliament to schedule a Kosovo debate in
July, most likely July 23 according to media reports. (Note: The
existing mandate stems from a February 14 session which reconfirmed
the old team and platform. End note.) In a statement, Kostunica
said that "the state negotiating team will submit its report to the
parliament, which then must adopt a new resolution on Kosovo and
define further steps in our policy towards the issue." Kostunica
also said his cabinet would insist on a new negotiating process with
a new international mediator adding "it is of utmost importance that
no preconditions or imposed limitations are set before a new round
of talks."


5. (SBU) Illustrating the broad support Kostunica has attained for
his Kosovo policy, both the government and almost all opposition
parties agreed to schedule the extraordinary session to "adopt a new
resolution set to define the state policy towards the issue of
Kosovo." The government will begin consultations with party
caucuses on Monday, July 9. DS caucus chief Nada Kulundzija
previewed the new resolution, noting it was practically unchanged
from the previously agreed upon version. Kulundzija expected the
main points to be "preserving territorial integrity [and the]
continuation of status talks without deadlines and predetermined
outcome." Radical Party leader Vucic was eager to discuss the
issue, saying "it is high time the Parliament discussed Kosovo. It
seems that parliaments elsewhere around the world spend more time
debating it than we do." Radical deputy leader Nikolic also voiced
the need for a platform stating that regardless of the Russian and
U.S. stances on Kosovo, Serbia needed to have its own plan for
Kosovo "which does not depend on theirs."


6. (U) The only dissenting voice came from the Liberal Democrats,
with their leader Jovanovic saying on July 3 that Serbia has "one
last chance to define its state policy on Kosovo, abandon its
defeatist political concept and face the truth." He added that his
party was not surprised at the outcome of the Kennebunkport talks
during which, he opined, Kosovo "was not mentioned even between bits
of food."


7. (U) FM Jeremic traveled abroad predominantly to promote Serbia's
Kosovo policy. Jeremic traveled the whole week, meeting

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counterparts in Slovakia, Slovenian, Austria and Germany. In a
statement to Tanjug news agency prior to his departure for
Bratislava on July 3, Jeremic said he intended to secure the support
of "as many EU member states as possible" for new negotiations on
the future status of the province, noting Serbia "already has
Russia's backing." Jeremic told reporters that Serbia has "reached
an important point in the process of Kosovo's future status
settlement when there is no unified opinion on how to proceed."


8. (U) Serbian media covered a Reuters report, however, that
"Western diplomats" see dividing Kosovo as possibly the only
solution for the Kosovo status crisis. While in Berlin, Jeremic
reacted to rumors that partition was being considered by some
"Western diplomats," calling partition "unacceptable" and stating
that both partition and a unilateral declaration of independence by
Pristina are "very dangerous." Jeremic also met with Austrian FM
Plassnik in Vienna on July 4 and said after the meeting that the
international community and Contact Group had also made a decision
not to accept the partition of the province. After his meeting with
Slovenian FM Rupel, Jeremic said "the question of Kosovo is the
biggest challenge within the frame of the Western Balkans' European
prospects."


DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY
--------------


9. (U) EU: Serbian media covered July 4 statements by Enlargement
Commissioner Rehn, who said that Europe -- not the U.S. or Russia --
will pay the price if Kosovo status is not resolved. Rehn said that
"neither Russia nor the U.S. is hit so directly by what is happening
in the Balkans as we Europeans are. Europe will pay the price if the
Kosovo status process falls through." He added that the EU "is
focused on creating a democratic, multiethnic and economically
sustainable Kosovo."


10. (U) EU: The media gave wide coverage to EU spokesperson
Christina Gallach's comments to a Serbian daily that the EU "will
take responsibility and make a decision on Kosovo if Russia
continues to say nothing but 'no.'" Gallach added that the EU would
then ask for UNSC support and assessed that while Russia is
defending its interests, "Kosovo is a European question...the future
of the Balkans depends on Europe, not on Russia." She also noted
that while the EU has been "patient" and trying to find a solution
alongside Russia for months, "everything has a deadline and if there
is no solution, at one point, we will have to make a decision."


11. (U) Russia: Gallach's interview immediately drew a reaction from
Russian Ambassador to Serbia Alexeev, who called it "simply a
statement coming from one person and it is wrong. This is not the
kind of language that can be used in communication with Russia."
Alexeev told journalists (as he was presented with 500,000
signatures collected by the Socialist Party of Serbia's "For Kosovo
and Metohija's Defense" campaign) that Kosovo "is of vital
importance to the Serbs and we are persistently working on it. I
think it is also very important for the Balkans and all of Europe to
preserve international law and international stability." Alexeev
said that a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo
Albanians would be "the worst possible development in the situation"
but dismissed plans for Russian peacekeepers in Kosovo saying he was
"not sure that this would be a good idea."


12. (U) China: Serbian media covered Chinese PermRep Wang Guangya's
July 3 comments that Kosovo debate in the UNSC will happen once the
USG and Russia have overcome differences and that "if the two sides
can reach agreement China will certainly support it." News agency
B92 spun this as indicating either "a summer break or fresh talks on
Kosovo."


13. (U) Germany: According to outgoing German Ambassador Andreas
Zobel in an interview to FoNET news agency on Sunday July 1, as far
as Brussels is concerned, there is no connection between Kosovo and
Serbia-EU negotiations on a Stabilization and Association Agreement
(SAA).


14. (U) Slovenia: In July 5 comments, Slovenian Foreign Minister
Rupel said that Slovenia, which succeeds Portugal as EU president in
2008, plans to focus on the Western Balkans and "become the region's
engine...to bring it closer to the EU." Serbian media also noted
that Slovenian Foreign Minister Rupel said that his country has "no
particular stance" on the Ahtisaari plan and that earlier support
was "not Slovenia's own, but an EU stance."


15. (SBU) COMMENT: Belgrade would certainly have liked more out of
Kennebunkport; a strong statement from Putin or a clear indication
for more talks (and delay). However, with no indications that
Russian interest is waning, Serbian officials see no reason to
adjust their tactics abroad and at home. While it was positive that

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the GOS quickly rejected partition (even rumors of partition are
dangerous things here),they did so because they now expect Kosovo
to remain within Serbia. We can expect next week's consultations to
be mostly theatrics with all the major parties sticking to
Kostunica's script on Kosovo. The expected July 23 parliamentary
session will be more of the same. END COMMENT.

POLT