KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: STATUS DELAY GAMES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000896

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SUBJECT: KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: STATUS DELAY GAMES



1. (SBU) Summary: Serbian officials, confident that a
Kosovo status decision will be delayed considerably,
augmented diplomatic overtures to Russia and European
countries with the aim of isolating the USG in the push for
independence. The GOS reacted quickly to the new draft
UNSC resolution by echoing Russia's opposition and calling
on its drafters to withdraw the resolution. The GOS
indicated it had drafted a new Kosovo plan for Russia in
advance of the President's summit with Russian President
Putin in Kennebunkport. The GOS has refused to reveal any
details either to the media or through our diplomatic
requests, with Kosovo Minister Samardzic saying only the
plan reflects that "it is very important [for Serbia] to
have the process restart in the right way." Samardzic also
assessed that Pristina would only be willing to engage in
new talks with "encouragement from the United States." The
Ambassador, in comments to the press, lamented the utter
lack of realism in the GOS approach and reminded Belgrade
that the current UNSCR draft was a final opportunity for
additional input into the Ahtisaari Plan. Summary.

GOS strategy: delay through more talks
--------------


2. (SBU) Belgrade focused its efforts this week on securing
more international support for a delay on a status
decision, attacking the draft UNSC resolution and renewing
a call for fresh talks with Pristina. The GOS also
revealed it drafted a new Kosovo plan for the Russians, but
would not come forward with any details.


3. (U) On 6/19, after bilateral meetings with the Foreign
Ministers of France, Portugal, Slovenia and the
Netherlands, Deputy PM Djelic told Serbian media that he
assessed "growing support" for further negotiations on
Kosovo. Similarly, on a visit to Greece, FM Jeremic said
on 6/20 that Athens also supports more talks "without
conditions."


4. (SBU) Serbian leaders seized on ICTY prosecutor Carla
Del Ponte's support for a delay in Kosovo status
resolution. Rather than the usual denouncement of
international representatives for overstepping their
mandate in discussing Kosovo status, GOS officials here
defended Del Ponte's statements. ICTY Cooperation Chair
Rasim Ljajic said on 6/20 that Del Ponte was "entitled to
point out to the UNSC anything that could contribute to
Serbia's cooperation with ICTY." Ljajic also told
reporters that Serbia believes Del Ponte's obligation was
"to provide conditions" for cooperation with ICTY -
implying that in such a context her remarks were within her
authority. (Note: This is a disappointing but unsurprising
assessment from a government that previously lambasted Del
Ponte for calling on the EU to stall SAA talks due to lack
of cooperation with ICTY. End note.)


PM attacks draft UNSCR, offers plan to Russians
-------------- --


5. (U) Even before the new draft UNSCR was tabled at in New
York; a GOS attack on "predetermined negotiations" had been
underway since Sarkozy's original announcement at the end
of the G8 Summit. On 6/19, PM spokesperson Srdjan Djuric
rejected a call for more talks with the automatic result of
Kosovo independence at the end as unacceptable to Serbia.
Djuric reiterated Serbia's call for "real negotiations and
instead of political force." Belgrade heightened attacks
on the idea after the formal submission of the new draft
UNSCR on 6/20 and Russia's subsequent rejection. Building
on Russian PermRep Churkin's assessment of the draft as
"unacceptable", Djuric said on 6/21 that the GOS welcomed
Russia's decision as a "continuation of principal policy
and cooperation between Belgrade and Moscow based on the
respect of the international law and UN Charter."


6. (U) In an official statement released on 6/21, Kostunica
called on "Western nations" to withdraw the draft UNSCR
because it "robs" Serbia of its territory and violates the
UN Charter. Kostunica also assessed that any draft
resolution based on the implementation of Ahtissari's plan
that was "doomed" and would not pass the UNSC. Referring
to the Serbian parliament's appeal to the UN Secretary-
General for more talks, Kostunica said that "there has been
no explanation...why negotiations were severed or why new
and substantial talks on Kosovo have not been launched
pursuant to Belgrade's initiative." Kosovo Minister
Samardzic told the press that it would be incumbent on the
USG to "encourage" the Kosovo Albanians to participate in
new discussions.

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7. (SBU) Kosovo Minister Samardzic confirmed on 6/21 that
the GOS had drafted a new plan for Kosovo and submitted it
to the Russians, but refused to reveal its contents.
Samardzic told reporters on 6/21 that he gave Russian
Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Alekseev a document
presenting Serbia's proposals for further negotiations.
He said only that the document draws from Serbia's national
platform on Kosovo status (a wide autonomy plan). Samardzic
added that Putin could use the document in his discussions
with the President in their upcoming Kennebunkport summit
in early July. When pressed by reporters on the document's
content, Samardzic said that he "cannot discuss the
content...it is [secret] in terms of form" but the "purpose
of the document is to stimulate the Russian side and brief
them on our ideas and positions." He added that the
document includes specific proposals regarding "negotiation
procedure" and that Serbia wants a quick restart to talks
in the "direction of compromise." Official Embassy
requests to the Kosovo Ministry have thus far been refused,
but we understand informally that the so-called new plan is
little more that a reiteration of "substantial autonomy."


8. (U) Serbian parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic expressed
dissatisfaction on 6/21 over the GOS' refusal to share the
plan. Dulic said that he was "impatiently waiting for the
negotiating team or the Ministry for Kosovo to give some
kind of document" for MPs to study and respond to. He
stressed that it was "very important that the MPs should be
informed about the situation in Kosovo and progress in our
negotiations and our present situation."


Diplomatic Activity
--------------


9. (U) Denmark: Belgrade wires reported on 6/18 that Danish
Defense Minister Gade said, during his visit to Kosovo,
that the process of determining the future status of Kosovo
had been postponed.


10. (U) Russia: According to local press reports, Serbian
President Tadic and Putin will meet on June 24 in Zagreb as
Croatia at the Southeast European Energy Summit.


11. (U) Slovenia: Serbian media reported Slovenian FM
Rupel's comments that decision on Kosovo status might be
postponed until Slovenia's EU chairmanship in 2008. He
said that he would propose postponing the Kosovo solution
by several months due to disagreement among UNSC members.
He added that the international community could use the
postponement to make adjustments toward improving the
position of Serbs in Kosovo while not going against the
province's independence.


Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Belgrade is triumphant with the change of tone
among internationals from uniform insistence on a speedy
resolution of Kosovo status to an increasing call for delay
and more talks. The GOS is eagerly shaping new European
calls for fresh talks -- along with what they consider
unshakable Russian support -- into a sense of inevitable
victory of Serbia's Kosovo policy and the death of the
Ahtisaari Plan. Kostunica and his deputies' tone has
evolved slightly vis--vis the USG, adding to outright
attacks on our policy the brokering of an understanding
between us and the Russians that more talks are needed, and
that we are responsible for delivering the Kosovo
Albanians. Kostunica has found an ally in this in Foreign
Minister Jeremic, who keeps lamenting that Kosovo is now a
"big power" issue, in which an innocent Serbia is squeezed
-- through no action of its own -- between the titans.
Meanwhile, Belgrade is relishing the intrigue around its
"secret plan" for the Russians to use at the titans'
encounter in July.

POLT