SERBIAN ELECTIONS: A MIXED PICTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000085

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS: A MIXED PICTURE



1. (SBU) Summary: Serbian elections were free and fair
with high turnout and no significant problems. The
results suggest difficult negotiations for forming a
government between the three strongest democratic
parties: the DS, the DSS and the G-17+ -- the DS just did
not do well enough to shake up the status quo. While the
democratic side of the house outpolled the Radicals and
Socialists, the distribution of seats will not facilitate
quick agreement. We expect negotiations to drag on
through the 90-to-120 day period required under the
constitution for forming a government. Kostunica has
already suggested that agreement on Kosovo would be
necessary for forming a coalition. End Summary

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Legal Deadlines
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2. (U) Official results will be announced by Thursday.
President Tadic must then choose one of the parties to
begin negotiations to form a government. The
Constitution requires that the parliament be constituted
within thirty days. After that, the parliamentary
session continues for 90 days within which a government
must be formed. If there is no agreement at that point
(latest possible date is May 25 if the RIK confirms the
results by Thursday, and it takes 30 days for Parliament
to convene),new elections are called with another 60
days for campaign and another 120 days for forming a
government.

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Democrats Win -- But Deadlock Possible
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3. (U) Preliminary results indicate high voter turn out
with slightly more than four million voters -- officially
60.4% but even higher since the 6.6 million "registered"
voters" includes about one million who have died, re-located,
or are no longer in Serbia. Good turn out by youth and
minorities gave democratic parties about 200,000 more
votes than in the last parliamentary elections in 2003.
The DS did better than ever with 23 percent of the vote
(930,000),but the LDP was likely the major recipient of
younger and return drop-out voters, squeaking in with
just over 5% of the vote (and 15 seats). The LDP's
success in Belgrade (perhaps at DS' expense) meant the
Radicals were the top vote getter in the capital, a DS
stronghold. Unfortunately, participation in Belgrade was
significantly below the national average.


4. (SBU) The DSS-NS coalition did worse than the DSS
alone in 2003. However, together with the G-17+ (6.8%),
the two groupings probably have more seats than the DS,
if they decide to work together to dictate the shape of
the next government. Also relevant to note is that the
DSS was the top vote getter among Kosovo Serbs, not
surprising given the DSS campaign and indicative of how
Kostunica will play the negotiations. The DS fell short
on two counts that would have strengthened its hands in
the negotiations to form a coalition: it received far
fewer seats than the Radicals (DS-65 vs. SRS-81),and was
not able to best the DSS and the G-17+ together (DS-65
vs. DSS and G-17+ - 66). Conventional wisdom is that DSS
and G-17+ have an agreement to back each other up in the
negotiations. However, since the DS and the DSS cannot
form a government on their own (their combined 112 seats
is well short of the 126 seat majority) the G-17+ is in a
fairly good position to negotiate for more.

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Minorities -- Not Clear if Albanians Will Get In
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5. (U) Minorities will take from 7 to 9 seats. It is not
clear yet whether the Albanians' Presevo Valley Coalition
will get into the parliament. They are within a couple
hundred votes of the natural threshold required so there
will be no definitive answer on their fate until later in
the week. Hungarian leader Kassa (SVM) has three; a
rival Hungarian coalition could take another seat but
again too early to tell. Sandzak leader Ugljanin (LZS)
will get two seats which are pledged in support of DSS.
The two Roma coalitions got a seat each.

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Continued Support for Radicals and Socialists
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6. (U) Combined, the Radicals and the Socialists got
virtually the same 1.4 million votes they received in

2003. Both parties ended up with slightly fewer mandates

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(SRS 81, SPS 16) but the Radicals remain the top vote
getter in Serbian national elections. The Socialists
took advantage of their extensive party structure to
overcome a lackluster campaign; most pollsters were
predicting they would not get into the parliament.

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LDP Will Be Vocal Opposition
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7. (U) The LDP will take its place in parliament as an
opposition party: progressive, pro-Europe and supporting
Kosovo independence and full cooperation with ICTY.
There is very little chance that the party will join any
coalition with Kostunica's DSS, given the personal
dislike between the two leaders and the LDP's outspoken
rejection of Kostunica's views on Kosovo. LDP leader
Ceda Jovanovic has good reason to be satisfied: his
uncompromising position leaves him free to attack both
the DSS and the Radicals as well as the DS for potentially
joining a coalition with Kostunica. Tadic will face
significant unhappiness inside the party, with members
likely demanding a high price for any collaboration with
the DSS. In the longer term, there could be significant
defections from DS to LDP, particularly in Belgrade.

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What to Expect Immediately
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8. (SBU) We expect that Tadic will give the DS a first
shot at forming a government. It is likely that
Kostunica, who will be intent on retaining the PM-ship,
will be in no hurry, using the Kosovo issue and DS angst
about new elections to press maximal demands. In the
end, it is very possible that the DS will cede the PM
position and settle for a Deputy Prime Minister position
(the VIP is suggesting PM candidate Djelic as DPM for
European Integration) and will push for Interior and
other key ministries. Dinkic will push to stay at
Finance (and with perhaps a DPM title),and maybe to
control Energy. DSS partner Ilic (NS) could get another
Deputy Prime Minister slot and will likely retain control
of at least part of his Capital Investments patronage.
All in all, PM Kostunica looks to be in very good shape
if he can keep Dinkic in his camp.

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Our Public Commentary
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9. (SBU) The Ambassador is phoning all of the winners on
the democratic side, including the LDP. We have issued a
press statement (text below) congratulating the voters
for free and fair elections, and opting for democratic
parties and a prosperous future. The Ambassador will
refrain from any local press commentary for this initial
week; he will decide how to proceed publicly after the
results are made official. We would advise to follow
broad press themes and stress the voters' choice for a
stable, democratic and prosperous future.

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Embassy Press Statement
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10. (U) Begin text: The preliminary results indicate
free and fair elections on Sunday. By their choices, the
majority of Serbia's citizens have spoken out in favor of
a secure, prosperous future inside the Euro-Atlantic
community. It is now up to their chosen leaders to form
a government that delivers such a forward-looking Serbia.
I would like to congratulate the people of Serbia. The
United States looks forward to continuing to work with
you and your leadership as your country fulfills the
promise of October 2000. End Text