KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: BELGRADE DELIGHTED WITH PART

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000813

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SIPDIS

DEPT FOR U/S BURNS, EUR A/S FRIED, EUR DAS DICARLO AND
AMBASSADOR WISNER
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO WEEKLY UPDATE: BELGRADE DELIGHTED WITH PART
OF SARKOZY DELAY PROPOSAL


Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL C POLT FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: In a week dominated by speculation on the
G8 Summit's impact on the Kosovo status process, the first
substantive offer -- French President Sarkozy's proposal to
delay a status decision for six months -- is seen by
officials here as a triumph for Serbia's Kosovo policy.
Serbia also maintained top level engagement with Russia, with
both Foreign Minister Jeremic and Prime Minister Kostunica
traveling to meet with Russian leaders. ICTY prosecutor Del
Ponte made news on Kosovo by appealing to local diplomats to
delay any status decision on Kosovo on the grounds that
Serbia is cooperating with ICTY and that this might end if
Kosovo becomes independent. End Summary.

First Reactions to French Proposal
--------------


2. (C) In a lunch with Quint Ambassadors on June 8, Foreign
Minister Jeremic was visibly pleased with his visit to
Moscow, his meeting "at his own villa" with Russian Foreign
Minister Lavrov and what he saw as the central element of the
Sarkozy proposal - the reopening of Kosovo negotiations.
Jeremic crowed that Lavrov had given him absolute assurances
that Russia would veto a resolution opening the path to
Kosovo independence "unless Serbia tells us not to."


3. (C) This, to Jeremic, now meant that particularly the U.S.
had a global problem on its hands with Russia unequivocally
on Serbia's side. The Europeans, he opined, were not in as
difficult a position as the U.S., since all they had to do
was to agree to a watered down resolution directed by Russia
establishing the EU mission in Kosovo without signing on to
Ahtisaari providing for open ended negotiations.


4. (U) Publicly, regarding his meeting with Russian FM Lavrov
in Moscow, FM Jeremic said that the stands of Belgrade and
Moscow on Kosovo are "identical" and he was "grateful" for
Russia's support on Kosovo. Jeremic added that the GOS is
not seeking indefinite delays and wishes to find a mutually
acceptable solution with Pristina. Jeremic also said the
news that the G8 had decided to postpone any vote in the UNSC
on Kosovo was "good news."


5. (C) While there is not yet a formal GOS reaction to the
Sarkozy proposal, other officials have also shared with us
their initial reactions to the plan. MFA desk officer Srdjan
Miljkovic (protect) called the proposal "a good sign" and
compared it to Panama's short-lived but similar proposal in
the UNSC earlier this year. Presidential advisor Branko
Radujko (protect) said that "any proposal that delays the
process will be widely welcomed in Belgrade...the prevailing
opinion here is that delay is good." He added that the
Presidency will look forward to more details but "expects to
endorse a six-month delay." The most direct response was
from the PM's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) VP Milos
Aligrudic (protect) who told poloff "you are about to have a
lot of problems with us on Kosovo."


6. (C) Only the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has come out
against the proposal. Nenad Prokic (protect throughout),LDP
VP, called the offer "disastrous," noting that Belgrade will
be "euphoric" but "without a counter-plan." Prokic
characterized the GOS goal to "create eternal postponements"
and called Sarkozy's plan "a dream come true for Kostunica."
"Russia is using Serbia," Prokic added, and that "every time
Europe has the initiative (with Serbia),they manage to do
the wrong thing."

Other Government Activity
--------------


7. (U) In advance of his trip to St. Petersburg, PM Kostunica
called his upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin
"very important" and called Kosovo status "Serbia's greatest
interest."


8. (U) President Tadic continued his recent foreign tour with
a stop in Bucharest during which he and his Romanian
counterpart agreed that "compromise" is the best solution in
Kosovo. Tadic reiterated that independence is "unacceptable."


9. (C) Chief of the Defense Staff General Zdravko Ponos held
talks with COMKFOR Kather on 6/8 after which both said the

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situation in Kosovo and along the ABL is "stable and under
control." Ponos added that cooperation between the Serbian
Army and KFOR is high and extends to combating trafficking
and illegal border crossings. Ponos saw no change even after
the Sarkozy announcement, telling DAO that such things are
political issues and that the Serbian Army will take care of
its side of the ABL, and KFOR will handle the other side.


10. (SBU) In a briefing for local diplomats following her
meetings with GOS officials, ICTY prosecutor Carla Del Ponte
raised Kosovo as a factor in ICTY cooperation. Del Ponte
asked diplomats to delay on any decision on Kosovo so as not
to endanger the revitalized effort by the GOS to cooperate
with ICTY.

Reported USG Statements and Activities
--------------


11. (U) Serbian media gave widespread coverage to President
Bush's 6/2 interview on Albanian television, noting USG full
support for the Ahtisaari plan. The President's comments
that dialogue with Russia on Kosovo would continue also
received attention. Media also covered US PermRep
Khalilzad's 6/6 confirmation that the UNSC will not vote on a
Kosovo resolution until the G8 Summit ends.


12. (C) COMMENT: While we expect the GOS to formally reject
the full Sarkozy proposal, there will be a lot of plum brandy
flowing among GOS leadership circles this weekend. The
French proposal is most welcome. It is seen as a repudiation
of Ahtisaari's plan, as a top-level European offer to delay
and renegotiate Kosovo status, and as an indication of a
crumbling of the Western pro-independence forces in face of
Russian resolve.


13. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: The added benefit for Serbia's
young government coalition is the belief that Yugoslavia's
East/West brokering role has been restored and has put Serbia
figuratively and literally back on the political map. The
GOS remains clueless as to what to do in the aftermath of
what they see as stopping us on Kosovo, other than expecting
us to accept as our only option the open-ended administration
of Kosovo's "supervised autonomy" and repressing any Albanian
attempts to assert independence by force. In Belgrade's eyes,
only this way can the U.S. and Europe escape the Prime
Minister's foreign policy advisor's accusation in a recent
magazine interview that the international community's
position on Kosovo so far was "cowardly." END COMMENT.
POLT