SERBIA STEPS UP WAR CRIMES COOPERATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELGRADE 000773

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE AND S/WCI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/17
TAGS: ICTY PHUM PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA STEPS UP WAR CRIMES COOPERATION


Classified by Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (c) SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION: The formal constitution of
Serbia's new "National Security Council (NSC)" on May 31 -- led by
President Tadic and designed to conduct full ICTY cooperation --
combined with the arrest of a top former aide to PIFWC Ratko Mladic,
steps up significantly the new government's efforts to cooperate on
war crimes. Whatever the circumstances or motivation for this
arrest, it is a positive development. This is the first arrest of a
senior PIFWC, and a departure from the "voluntary surrender" model of
Kostunica. It is also the first solid Serbian MUP activity we have
seen, and a positive reflection on the commitment of DSS VP and
Interior Minister Dragan Jocic to take action on PIFWC issues.
Combined with the formation of the new NSC, this action will
undoubtedly lead to the restart of SAA talks and a positive
assessment by Carla del Ponte. Even without the key result of a
Mladic apprehension, we believe it justifiable to propose to the
Secretary that she now certify Serbia's cooperation with the ICTY,

SIPDIS
timed to coincide with a similar determination by the EU Commission
regarding the SAA. Meanwhile we plan to maintain private and public
pressure that Mladic remains a condition for ultimate success in
Serbia's Euro-Atlantic quest. End Summary and Recommendation.


2. (c) ICTY Action Plan Coordinator Rasim Ljajic confirmed to
emboffs the evening of May 31 that General Zdravko Tolimir, a senior
PIFWC and key aide to Ratko Mladic, was arrested following a joint
RS-Serbian MUP operation on the RS-Serbian border. The arrest was
front-page news in virtually all Belgrade press on June 1, and so far
there has been little or no negative reaction from the Radicals or
Socialists - though it is still very early in the news cycle. Ljajic
subsequently confirmed that Tolimir was arrested on the RS side of
the border and remains in custody in RS, and that the plan is for him
to be flown directly to The Hague from Banja Luka. Ljajic added that
Tolimir has suffered recently from multiple heart attacks and
possibly an aneurism, hinting that health concerns may have played a
(undefined) role in his arrest.


3. (c) The arrest comes just days before a planned visit to
Belgrade by ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte to assess Serbia's
cooperation with the tribunal, and on the eve of an anticipated
announcement by EU enlargement commissioner Ollie Rehn that SAA talks
with Serbia will be restarted. It also comes on the heels of the
announcement by the GoS of the formation of a National Security
Council, headed by the president and including the PM, ministers of
justice, interior, and defense, the Chief of the General Staff, and
the heads of key intelligence services. The arrest and the formation
of the NSC have led to widespread speculation that both the SAA
restart will happen and that del Ponte will assess Serbia's
cooperation favorably. It has also led to some speculation that
Mladic's apprehension may now be easier, as Tolimir was a close
confidante and was believed to have orchestrated the formation of
Mladic's support network.


4. (c) The timing of this arrest did not pass unnoticed by
Belgrade's jaded analytical community and International Community
contacts, some of whom point to it as evidence that the government is
able to bring in senior PIFWCs when it is politically advantageous to
do so. One of the more cynical observers, LDP president Cedomir
Jovanovic, dismissed this as the GoS pulling Tolimir out of its
"PIFWC Pantry." Others, though, point out that the joint MUP
operation was a legitimate one, highlighted cooperation between the
RS and Serbia, and came as a surprise to many in the government
itself - Ljajic told us Kostunica's chief of staff, Aleksander
Nikitovic, was out of the loop on the operation and had to call
Ljajic for details. Meanwhile, chief War Crimes prosecutor Vladimir
Vukcevic told RLA June 1 that additional arrests are in the works.
We suspect most likely these would be Goran Hadzic and/or Stojan
Zupljanin - the latter has been rumored to be close to being
apprehended for some weeks now.


POLT