KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (4/2 - 4/5)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000459

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (4/2 - 4/5)



1. (U) This cable summarizes notable events relating to
Serbia and Kosovo.


2. (SBU) Summary: For the week of April 2, the UNSC meeting attended
by Prime Minister Kostunica was the dominant event related to Kosovo
and Serbia. Both before and after the April 3 session, Belgrade
media speculated on the level of support for a UNSC resolution based
on the Ahtisaari plan, as well as whether there will be a UNSC
delegation to Kosovo as requested by Russia. Also, the outgoing
Foreign Minister requested a meeting with the Ambassador to lodge
again his strong views against Kosovo independence. End Summary.

UNSC: THE VIEW FROM BELGRADE
--------------


3. (U) PM Kostunica traveled to New York to represent Serbia at the
April 3 UNSC meeting on Kosovo. Before leaving, he said he was
confident that Russia's support in the UNSC "ensures that Serbia
will keep its territorial integrity and sovereignty," and that
Ahtisaari's proposal will "collapse." In an interview with Russian
TV, President Tadic reiterated that Serbia cannot accept "full,
supervised, conditional or any kind of independence."


4. (U) Reports from the UNSC session dominated Serbian media on
April 4. PM Kostunica's address from New York in which he expressed
his optimism that Ahtiassari's plan will fail was repeated all day
on RTS. Vecernje Novosti's headline read "Independence is losing
its chance," and pro-Radical Glas Javnosti wrote "Putin won the
first battle for Kosovo." PM advisor Aleksandar Simic told B92 that
Ahtisaari's plan has the support of only a few UNSC members, and
that it is a good sign that Kosovo President Sejdiu was not allowed
to speak at the formal session. Presidential advisor Vuk Jeremic
told BETA wire service that a lack of support for Ahtisaari's
proposal is an encouraging signal and that it is obvious that the
discussion in the UNSC "will be more complex than some expected a
few months or weeks ago."


5. (U) The only criticism of the PM's performance came from rightist
tabloid Kurir which, under its front page headline "Voja [Kostunica]
running ahead of himself," writes that political analysts and some
Kosovo Serb officials believe PM Kostunica's assessment that the
UNSC has already rejected Ahtisaari's plan is unfounded, and simple
self promotion. Kurir quoted Rada Trajkovic, vice-president of the
Serbian National Council from Kosovo, who criticized PM Kostunica
for traveling to New York with the motto "I am going to beat
Ahtisaari" instead of "I am going there to preserve Kosovo."


6. (U) In a statement to TANJUG wire service, Ambassador Polt
asserted that actually the UNSC session was another step toward a
settlement of Kosovo's status and that he did not believe the UNSC
would reject Ahtisaari's plan. "The UN plan proposed by President
Ahtisaari has already been endorsed by the UN Secretary-General, the
U.S. and the EU. It is the best possible solution for the future of
the people of Kosovo and for the future of Southeast Europe," the
statement said. Russian Ambassador Alekseev told TANJUG that the
UNSC session was very useful, but that Russia believes that
Ahtisaari's proposal is unilateral and unacceptable. Alekseev said
that at the UNSC session, Russia confirmed its stand that it is
necessary to resume talks without an artificial deadline.


7. (U) Ivan Vejvoda, Director of The Balkan Trust for Democracy and
possible DS candidate for FM, warned this week that the Serbia
should not rely solely on hope for a Russian veto. While the threat
of a veto might be useful for Serbia, a strategy based on a veto
could limit Serbia's ability to find a compromise solution,
according to Vejvoda.


UNSC MISSION TO KOSOVO?
--------------


8. (U) Ambassador Alekseev also told TANJUG that it is "of principal
importance to have a UNSC mission visit Pristina and Belgrade in
order to get acquainted with the situation in the field." President
Tadic said on April 4 that he supports the Russian proposal and
added that Serbian officials have been on a constant diplomatic
offensive since the beginning of the Kosovo status negotiations.


9. (U) RTS reported on April 5 that DAS Rosemary DiCarlo said that
Washington supports the Russian effort to send a UNSC mission to
Kosovo. Electronic media reported that State Department
spokesperson Sean McCormack called the mission "important to
Russians and is now being seriously discussed."

FM: EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION "IN GRAVE DANGER"
-------------- --


10. (SBU) In a meeting he requested with the Ambassador on April 3,

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outgoing FM Vuk Draskovic warned again that Kosovo independence will
put Serbia's integration into the EU and NATO "in grave danger." He
criticized the international community for allowing the NATO bombing
campaign to end the humanitarian disaster in Kosovo but doing
nothing to stop the "second humanitarian disaster on the Serbs" in
Kosovo. The Ambassador not only disagreed in general, but stressed
that it was Milosevic who brought NATO to Kosovo and that KFOR was
in Kosovo now to protect Serbs. Draskovic again offered his "one
country, two systems" plan (which he claims has PM Kostunica's
support),and hoped that Washington and other Contact Group
countries would consider it. The Ambassador regretfully assured him
that it had no chance.


OTHER ACTIVITY
--------------


11. (SBU) EUPT: The EU Planning Team for Kosovo, led by Casper
Klynge, called on the Ambassador on April 3. Klynge said this was
the team's second visit to Belgrade and that they had been well
received both times. The team was scheduled to meet with Tadic
advisor Damjan Krnjevic-Miskovic and Kostunica advisor Aleksandar
Simic. (Note: Kostunica advisor Vladeta Jankovic met with the team
last time but was in the US this week. End note.) Klynge said the
team came to be "in partnership" with the GOS and to provide an
update on their work. Klynge said that the EUPT's dialogue has been
"pragmatic" with the GOS despite the "hot time." The team, he
explained, was also in contact with police and judicial authorities
in Serbia but said the former was proving much more productive than
the latter. The Ambassador urged the team to open an office in
Belgrade, which Klynge said will happen if the GOS agrees. In sum,
Klynge said, EU unity never more critical for the team's work, but
that the EU is more united now on Kosovo than it ever has been.


12. (U) The Church: Belgrade wires quoted Serbian Orthodox Church
(SPC) Archbishop Amfilohije statement calling on Russia and China to
veto to prevent Kosovo independence. In his Easter message, SPC
Patriarch Pavle spoke out against Kosovo independence and
emphasizing the region's importance in Serbian "history, culture and
statehood."


13. (U) Protest: About 200 people protested against Kosovo
independence in front of the Serbian Parliament in Belgrade on April

3. The speakers called on Russia and China to veto any resolution
granting independence.


14. (U) UK: British Ambassador to Serbia Stephen Wordsworth told
reporters on April 3 in Kraljevo that there is "nothing to gain in
postponing" a Kosovo settlement.


15. (U) Croatia & Bulgaria: Serbian media reported that Bulgarian
and Croatian PMs Stanishev and Sanader support Ahtisaari's proposal,
calling it the "best" available option considering the positions of
the parties.


16. (SBU) Presevo Valley: Newly elected MP Riza Halimi made
comments indicating the possibility of Presevo Valley Albanians
wanting to unite with Kosovo if Kosovo is partitioned, or if "rights
of Albanians within Serbian institutions" are not fully implemented.
We have conveyed to Halimi that these are unhelpful comments and
not in line with Contact Group principles. We understand our
British counterparts have conveyed a similar message.

POLT