KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/26 - 3/30)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000435

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/26 - 3/30)


Classified By: Ambassador Michael C. Polt for reasons 1.4b and d


1. (U) This cable summarizes notable events relating to
Serbia and Kosovo.


2. (C) Summary: For the week of March 26, the announcement
and international reactions to Ahtisaari's recommendation for
the supervised independence of Kosovo were the dominant
events of the week related to Kosovo and Serbia. PM
Kostunica's office has confirmed that he will attend the UNSC
meeting on April 3. The Embassy followed U/S Burns'
announcement USG support for the proposal with a vigorous
public diplomacy effort led by the Ambassador. Kostunica's
response was immediate and rejectionist as expected but there
are signs that his strategy could be backfiring. A joint TV
interview with te Ambassador and his British counterpart
receive widespread attention and comment. Finally, a
viiting senior Slovak official assured the Ambassado of his
country's support in the UNSC. End Summry.


SERBIA REACTS TO AHTISAARI AND HIS SUPPORTRS
--------------


3. (U) Serbian leaders, though not its public, racted
quickly and loudly to Ahtisaari's recommenation for
supervised independence, and to USG, NTO, and EU support for
it. Local media erroneouly reported that both Tadic and
Kostunica calledU/S Burns on Monday regarding the Ahtisaari
plan ather than the reverse.


4. (U) Kostunica said te failure of Ahtisaari's plan is
"Serbia's highet national interest" and said UNOSEK talks
had been a "badly directed show." Kostunica was quick to
raise again the prospect of a Russian veto, saying it would
be "of historic significance to Serbia." Kostunica will
attend the April 3 UNSC meeting. Tadic reiterated the
Serbian Government line that independence is unacceptable and
that more negotiations are needed. Minister of Local
Governance (and DSS member) Zoran Loncar told the press that
he expects new talks led by a new negotiator "when the UN
Security Council rejects the proposal." Serbian officials
also addressed new round of diplomatic efforts aimed at the
UNSC non-permanent members.


5. (U) Serbian Coordinating Center for Kosovo director Sanda
Raskovic-Ivic told B92 that for the first time the USG has
endorsed a violation of international law by supporting the
plan. She added that Russia is not alone in calling for the
resumption of talks and claims China, Peru, South Africa,
Indonesia, Ghana and Slovakia will soon voice their support
for Serbia's position.


6. (U) Outgoing FM Draskovic said he would dispatch outgoing
Minister for Minorities and Human Rights (and Bosniak) Rasim
Ljajic to lobby Islamic countries, including Indonesia,
Malaysia, Qatar and Kuwait. Draskovic also said he would
send assistant FM Bogojevic to South Africa, Congo and Ghana.



7. (U) On the European Parliament's resolution supporting
Ahtisaari's plan Interior Minister and DSS deputy leader
Jocic said the EU was in favor of "seizing 15% of its
territory...in the name of friendship."


8. (U) SRS Leader Nikolic said yesterday that everything that
concerns the Kosovo final status lies in Russia's hands.
Nikolic said that he would be so surprised if Russia does not
veto that "my world would collapse and I would retire from
public life."

KOSTUNICA'S POLICY BACKFIRING?
--------------


9. (SBU) We have noticed some negative articles about
Kostunica's Kosovo policy this week from unexpected sources,
possibly indicating that his rejectionist policy might be
backfiring. Pro-Radical tabloid Kurir often targets
democratic parties for negative coverage, particularly the
LDP and DS. However, the 3/29 edition ran a sarcastic
article calling Kostunica the "New Sloba" (Milosevic's
nickname) and criticizing his assertion that the failure of

BELGRADE 00000435 002 OF 003


the Ahtisaari plan is Serbia's national interest. The
article quoted a Serbian analyst as saying that "Serbia has
always been counterproductive when it uses heavy artillery in
diplomatic negotiations." The same day, pro-West daily Blic
ran a sly cartoon lampooning Kostunica's reputation for
avoiding questions by claiming he was not informed about an
issue. The cartoon shows Kostunica at the press room podium
saying, "I was not informed that Kosovo would be independent"
while his press secretary tells an advisor, "We prepare him
for every possibility." B92's English language website has
an active online community of local Serbian, Albanian and
international bloggers who comment on articles. A short
article on Kostunica's comment that a Russian veto would have
"the deepest sense of historic importance for Serbia and the
Serbian nation" sparked several unusual anti-Kostunica
comments from ostensibly Serbian bloggers in particular. One
post said "Kostunica has repeatedly said Kosovo will never
get independence, but (neither) he nor anyone else in
government has offered any idea for what to do with the
Albanians living there."

AMBASSADOR'S MEDIA CAMPAIGN
--------------


10. (U) After the Ahtisaari plan and the USG support for it
were announced, post immediately arranged three joint
interviews this week for the Ambassador and his British
counterpart, Stephen Wordsworth. The joint interviews with
national broadcaster RTS, wire service FoNet and Belgrade
daily Blic left no doubt that the USG and EU are firmly
behind the Ahtisaari plan and the UN process. Several other
TV stations and dailies also reported on the interviews,
highlighting that the two Ambassadors made clear that
Ahtisaari's proposal for supervised independence in Kosovo is
the only possible solution, and that further talks should not
be expected. Blic (circ. 200,000) gave the front page to the
interview, with the headline "No New Negotiations on Kosovo."
National broadcaster RTS aired the dynamic and direct
interview on the show "Oko" ("Eye," approx. 2 million
viewers). The host Zoran Stanojevic asked tough, opinionated
questions and frequently cited the GOS position favoring
autonomy within Serbia. When asked why the international
community is "punishing Serbia," the Ambassadors stuck to
the same message: we understand this is difficult, the
Ahtisaari proposal protects the rights of the Serbs and other
minorities, and that UNSCR 1244 specifically calls for a
decision on status by the UN. The interviews reached a huge
portion of the public in Belgrade and around Serbia, and the
excerpts of the interviews that were printed in other
Belgrade print media and news agencies.


11. (U) Dragoljub Zarkovic, editor of the moderate weekly
Vreme, dedicated his weekly newspaper column in the
pro-government Politika to the "diplomatic-media offensive"
of the "Atlantic Duo" of the U.S. and UK Ambassadors,
praising them for delivering to the people a clear message
that the Serbian government "will not and/or cannot" deliver
on Kosovo. Calling the Ambassadors "two black ravens," (an
allusion to a well-known Serbian myth in which two birds flew
over the Serb army at Kosovo Polje, auguring the Serbs' 1389
defeat by the Turks),Zarkovic criticizes Kostunica for
saying that Serbia's national goal is to see Ahtisaari fail.
He writes, "I'd rather see that our national interest is the
success of one of our own plans, but the problem with this is
that we have no good plan for Kosovo."


DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY
--------------


12. (C) Slovakia: Slovak MFA political director Miroslav
Lajcak (strictly protect throughout) visited Belgrade on 3/30
and met with the Ambassador. Lajcak downplayed his country's
discussions on Kosovo as a "matter of domestic politics" and
assured that Slovakia will "vote with its allies in the UNSC"
and will "work to maintain EU unity" on the issue. Public
support for the Ahtisaari plan, however, would "kill the
Slovak government" and Lajcak already expects a vote of
no-confidence after the UNSC vote. Lajcak added that Slovak
FM Kubris had said this to both Kostunica and Tadic when he
came to Belgrade, and that he would reiterate the same
message.

BELGRADE 00000435 003 OF 003




13. (C) Lajcak also provided readouts of his recent meetings
with Russian and EU officials. Of his recent meeting in
Moscow with Deputy FM Titov, Lajcak said he expected no
change in the Russian position who are "happy to hold the
key" on Kosovo. Lajcak also met with German FM Steinmeier
earlier this week who agreed firmly on Kosovo independence;
Lajcak paraphrased Steinmeier as saying there is no "plan B"
and the issue must be resolved as "the future of Serbia is at
stake."


14. (C) On Serbian domestic politics, Lajcak said he
considers Kostunica "hopeless" and still worries that the DSS
may enter into an agreement with the Radicals. The hope,
therefore, is that Tadic will emerge in a Government and able
to take credit for the resumption of SAA talks, which Lajcak
is assured "without dilemma" in the EU. According to Lajcak,
EU Enlargement Commissioner Rehn is both willing and vested
with the power to restart talks as soon as the Serbian
Government is formed and the GOS issues a statement affirming
commitment to the conditions of accession.


15. (U) Ghana: The Ghanan Ambassador to Serbia gave an
interview to Glas Javnosti in which he repeatedly stated that
his country would "uphold the UN Charter" in the UNSC and
that Ghana "supports territorial integrity."


16. (U) Russia: RTS reported that Putin told the President
that Russia opposes an imposed solution for Kosovo and urges
a solution acceptable to Belgrade and Pristina. Serbian
media also reported Russian FM Lavrov comments that it is too
early to speculate on the voting of the Kosovo resolution
status. He said that Russia will not be simply an "observer"
in the UNSC. Also, Politika ran a front page article on March
30 noting wire reports that Putin may travel to Serbia in
June. TANJUG wire service quoted "Croatian media" claiming
Putin is considering the trip but BETA noted they were not
able to confirm the report.
POLT