MINORITY PARTIES FIND THEIR VOICE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000426

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR
SUBJECT: MINORITY PARTIES FIND THEIR VOICE

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Due to legislative changes enabling smaller ethnic minority
parties to enter parliament more easily, several such parties find
themselves for the first time in the Serbian parliament. Each has
established itself as a potential ally of the democratic bloc of
parties and has promulgated an ambitious platform and set of
expectations for participating in the next government and/or
parliament. These parties, with a total of eight seats, are
unlikely to gather much attention from the major parties in the near
term, but their budding voice in parliament ultimately bodes well
for their prospects in local elections and increased participation
at the state level in the future. End Summary.

ELECTION LAWS HELP THE LITTLE GUYS
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2. (SBU) The Serbian election law -- amended in 2004, thus first
applied in the January 2007 parliamentary elections -- allows ethnic
minority parties to enter parliament with a "natural threshold" of
1/250 of the total turnout, not to exceed the percentage of the
minorities' population compared to the general population (in
practice, 12,000-16,000 votes per deputy seat, depending on
turnout),rather than the 5 percent required of major parties. The
Republican Election Commission also granted these parties a lower
threshold of required signatures -- 3,000, vice the 10,000 demanded
by the election law -- to put their candidates on the ballot in the
recent elections. These provisions greatly increased the number of
stand-alone minority parties in parliament, as only the Alliance of
Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) acquired the requisite 10,000 signatures
to craft a ballot, and none of the minorities gathered more than 1.3
percent of the vote.

HUNGARIANS: CONTENT TO SERVE IN OPPOSITION
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3. (SBU) Josef Kasza's SVM -- which garnered the most votes of any
stand-alone minority party -- earned three seats in parliament. He
told us, though, that he is pessimistic about SVM's prospects of
participating in government, partly because of bad blood between SVM
and PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS),which has
categorically ruled out working with SVM. Laszlo Jozsa -- SVM
official and president of the National Council of the Hungarian
Ethnic Minority -- told us that the main obstacle to SVM's
participation in government is the party's fear of sharing
responsibility for losing Kosovo in the eyes of the public. SVM
supports a cohabitation arrangement between DS and DSS -- which
Kasza believes is the only ticket to a stable government -- but he
said that, contrary to media reporting last week, he believes
Kostunica's "sixth principle" on sharing government responsibilities
lacks substance and is just an excuse to kick coalition negotiations
further down the road.


4. (SBU) Kasza told us that SVM's priorities in parliament largely
reflect the party's election platform, which is focused on
proportional representation of Hungarians in state institutions and
public enterprises, redrawing district borders to group the
Vojvodina Hungarians more closely together, and implementing a law
on the function of national councils. He believes SVM's voice in
two caucuses will increase the prospects of seeing these initiatives
come to fruition and assuming a leadership position in at least one
caucus. (Note: Kasza was referring to the minority caucus --
composed of two SVM representatives, two Bosniaks, one Roma, and one
Albanian -- and the Vojvodina caucus, with one SVM official and four
members of the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, which
entered parliament in a pre-election coalition with the Liberal
Democratic Party. End note.) Jozsa told us that the SVM
parliamentary representatives would push for representation in the
education, culture, legislation, environment, and budget committees
because of their pertinence to Vojvodina and available expertise
within the party.


5. (SBU) SVM will pursue its initiatives under new leadership, as
Kasza will step down from the party presidency on April 28 and take
on an advisory role. While Kasza told us he is leaving his position
because of personal priorities, Jozsa intimated that Kasza is
disappointed in the election results in some of the Vojvodina
municipalities and believes a new leader would maximize the chances
of recovering votes in the next election. Kasza told us that his
younger and more energetic successor, Istvan Pastor, should be able
to solidify the party's voting bloc.

UGLJANIN'S BOSNIAKS: AT KOSTUNICA'S BECK AND CALL
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6. (SBU) The Coalition of List for Sandzak (LZS) -- led by Novi
Pazar strongman Sulejman Ugljanin -- has two seats in parliament.
Presently aligned with DSS, Ugljanin has publicly expressed hope
that the major democratic parties will achieve "good results, as the
Kostunica government did." He indicated that his top priorities
will be European integration and the full implementation of the new
Serbian constitution, particularly the provisions for minority
rights. He has not publicly declared expectations for a particular
government post but has stated that he expects LZS to participate in

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government at all levels. We expect his overriding priority to
continue to be seeking ways to undermine his nemesis, Sandzak
Democratic Party (SDP) leader Rasim Ljajic, who entered parliament
on the DS ticket and who will probably retain some version of his
prior position of Minister of Human and Minority Rights.

ROMA: BRIGHT-EYED AND BUSHY-TAILED
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7. (SBU) The January elections marked the first time a Roma party
has succeeded in entering parliament, and the accession of two Roma
parties indicates an even greater breakthrough for this oft-maligned
minority group. Rajko Djuric's Roma Union of Serbia and Srdjan
Sajn's Roma Party -- the only two of the 16 Roma parties to collect
the requisite 3,000 signatures to get on the election ballot --
garnered sufficient votes for one parliamentary seat each. Both
parties are expectedly elated about their new representation in
parliament, pushing ambitious agendas, and optimistic about their
prospects in the new government.


8. (SBU) Although Roma Union has typically been a silent DSS
supporter, Djuric told us that he also expects DS to be a key ally;
he lauded Tadic's platform as identical to the principles his Roma
party endorses. Djuric declared that he will push for the rapid
approval and implementation of an anti-discrimination law to benefit
all minorities, as well as a government program for Roma, a regional
economic development strategy, decentralization, and media reform.
Party official Osman Balic told us that his party hopes to work with
other minority parties to achieve these initiatives. Balic said
that the party has requested a place in six ministries: education,
social, health, housing, interior, and local administration. He
expects Roma Union to receive either the chairman or assistant
chairman posts in the Education Ministry, the Social Ministry, or
both, as a consolation prize for not chairing the more important
ministries.


9. (SBU) Sajn was equally ambitious but a bit more pragmatic with
us. He told us that he has asked to participate in those ministries
he believes would directly benefit Roma -- capital investments,
education, and health -- but has not requested and does not
anticipate receiving ministerial or deputy ministerial positions.
He said he expects to work closely with DS and has been pleased with
the results of negotiations thus far. He said he is not sure which
caucus he will join, as he believes that the minority caucus is
purely a technical means of allowing these groups a voice in
parliament and expects each representative to vote as he wishes
[Note: He is probably right. End note.]. He opined that the DS
caucus or the Vojvodina caucus might present a more stable option
for his party. Like Djuric, Sajn indicated a strong desire for an
anti-discrimination law, which would include coordination with
religious communities and other minority groups. He also listed as
priorities a national strategy on child care, representation of
socially vulnerable groups in parliament, and legislation governing
education, health, housing, political integration, and security of
Roma. He did not appear optimistic about working with Roma Union,
citing differences in fundamental principles.

ALBANIANS: IT'S LONELY AT THE TOP
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10. (SBU) The presence of Riza Halimi -- chairman of the Presevo
Albanians coalition -- in parliament represents a watershed decision
by the Albanian minority in Serbia to participate in the elections.
Halimi has already weathered and rebutted invective from the
Radicals and Socialists -- Dacic singled him out for vitriol related
to Kosovo during the constitutive session of parliament -- as well
as ethnic Albanian rivals in Presevo Valley who do not support
participation in the Serbian government. Halimi has sought out
allies in other minority parties, as well as DS, to ensure that his
voice is heard during his uphill struggle, which will only become
more challenging after the settlement of Kosovo. DS has publicly
and privately pledged its support to Halimi and his coalition
partner, and early reports are that the success of Halimi has sent
rejectionist leader Ragmi Mustafa flailing about for any support
from the international community as he seems to feel increasingly
marginalized.


11. (SBU) Halimi told us he does not expect to hold a government
position but believes DS will incorporate the principles he conveyed
during informal negotiations (DSS has not contacted him). He hopes
to serve on the education committee in parliament -- he was a
professor for 20 years -- as well as those related to security and
administration. Others in his caucus tend to support DSS, so he
emphasized that political independence within the caucus will be key
to making the caucus work. He told us that his chief priority will
be the reinstatement of a coordination body for southern Serbia, for
which he expects DS support, and he told OSCE officials that he
hopes to promulgate a new law on national minorities and
decentralization. He told us that he has asked for more ethnic
Albanian participation in state and local institutions -- including
customs, tax, and border agencies -- and believes DS will support
legislation to encourage increased connectivity with Pristina,
particularly in the area of education.

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COMMENT
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12. (SBU) The presence of minority parties in the Serbian parliament
is a major step forward for these underrepresented,
democratic-leaning polities, and we will look for more participation
from these groups in the next round of parliamentary elections. So
far these officials are holding their own in a challenging political
climate, refusing to shrink away from controversy. They are
developing the ability to provide ambivalent voters from their
constituencies with an alternative to the major parties and force
the parties in power to pay attention to their needs. We expect
their stalwartness to play well in their home districts and, we
hope, translate into increased votes in local and municipal
elections.

POLT