KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/12 - 3/16)

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/12 - 3/16)



1. This cable summarizes notable events relating to
Serbia and Kosovo.


2. Summary: For the week of March 12, the conclusion of UNOSEK talks
and the presentation of the Ahtisaari plan to the UN Secretary
General were the most notable events related to Kosovo and Serbia.
Speculation about whether the document calls for independence and
what Russia will do in the UNSC continues unabated. The Serbian
leadership continued to denounce the Ahtisaari plan and to call for
new negotiations. End Summary.

UNOSEK & UNSC: THE VIEW FROM BELGRADE
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3. All Belgrade media reported that UN Deputy Envoy Rohan presented
Ahtisaari's proposal to Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and that the
UNSC debate on Kosovo will begin on March 26. The media described
the status as "supervised independence" (Tanjug wire service) and
"explicitly for independence" (B92).


4. PM Kostunica and President Tadic returned from the March 10 final
round of talks in Vienna making similar comments that the Kosovo
status process has no defined end yet. Tadic's interview with a
Moscow daily received coverage here, in which he said the
negotiating process is "not over yet" and that there can still be a
compromise decision. He reiterated the point of independence
setting a precedent destabilizing the Balkans and other regions.


5. Negotiator and Tadic advisor Leon Kojen said that a compromise
solution for Kosovo is necessary, emphasizing the crucial role of
the EU, U.S. and Russia in the process. He sees three ways the UNSC
could handle status: to remain silent on Kosovo independence,
reaffirm Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo under UNSCR 1244, or not
to agree on status. Kojen reiterated that Kosovo should be treated
like Iraq, Israel and North Korea - troubled areas which need a
compromise solution.


6. PM Kostunica said Ahtisaari's plan was not based on compromise
and violates the UN Charter, and therefore cannot be debated by the
UNSC. He stressed that Serbia sees a solution in opening a new
process which would lead to an agreement in keeping with
international law and the Serbian Constitution.


7. According to Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, the PM's
strategy is to restart "genuine talks which will lead to a
negotiated settlement in accordance with international law and the
Serbian constitution". "A Serbian official" told BIRN that "the
Americans and their key allies want the Kosovo story over," but
"there's hope in the form of dissent among some European countries,
notably Spain, Slovakia, Greece."


8. Radical Party leader Nikolic said on Tuesday that the Assembly
should hold a new session on Kosovo in order to pass a new
resolution with directions to the negotiating team prior to UNSC
session. He recommended that the UNSC session be monitored publicly
by a video stream in front of the National Assembly building. He
said that while the Belgrade team performed well in Vienna, the
President and PM should have ordered their return when "Ahtisaari
refused to dismiss his proposal for Kosovo independence."


OPED, QUOTE GET ATTENTION
--------------


9. Former U.S. envoy for the Balkans Richard Holbrooke's Washington
Post op-ed (in which he warns Russia that it will be responsible for
destabilizing Kosovo, the Balkans and even Europe if it blocks
Ahtisaari's plan) received major coverage from wires, dailies and
television news.


10. One Belgrade paper, Vecernje Novosti, reported that during a
trip to Brussels, U.S. Envoy Wisner said Ahtisaari has explored all
roads for finding a solution and that this issue should be referred
promptly to the UNSC. According to media reports, if Russia vetoes,
"Kosovo would burn and the victims will be the Serbs." Wisner was
also quoted as saying "events in the 1990s had been so shocking that
it is impossible to imagine the Albanians returning to Serbian
rule."


DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY
--------------


11. Russia: Politika, a pro-government daily, ran the headline
"Russia against Ahtisaari" and reported that Moscow agrees with
Serbia that negotiations ended prematurely, and claims the USG is
pressuring Russia against a veto. Also, in a meeting this week with
PM Kostunica, President of the Russian Federation Chamber of
Commerce and Former PM Primakov stressed that Kosovo must not be

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treated as a unique case, and that Kosovo's future status should be
approached with patience. He agreed with Kostunica that Ahtisaari's
proposal violates the UN charter and the principles of states'
sovereignty and territorial integrity.


12. Czech Republic: In an interview with this week's Evropa
magazine, Czech PM Topolanek says his country supports Ahtisaari's
plan as a well-balanced compromise that provides security,
stability, protection for human rights, and economic prosperity.


13. Slovakia: In Belgrade earlier this week, Slovak FM Kubis called
for "a compromise." Kubis told Radio B92 that Serbia's position
unrealistic and said his visit was in part to urge Serbia to "accept
the fact of Kosovo's imminent independence."

POLT