LDP - PUNCHING ABOVE ITS WEIGHT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000332

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR
SUBJECT: LDP - PUNCHING ABOVE ITS WEIGHT

REF: A. Belgrade 260

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) One of the least discussed, but arguably most significant
outcomes of Serbia's recent parliamentary elections, is the
successful effort of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to gain
representation in parliament. The party -- which will almost
certainly stake out an opposition role in parliament -- has quickly
established itself as a bold, pro-Western policy advocate with
progressive positions on Kosovo (pro-independence),ICTY (immediate
arrest of fugitives),lustration, and other key issues. LDP's
long-term goals include broadening the party's appeal and,
ultimately, entering government. These goals, though, will continue
to be constrained by the controversial reputation of party leader
Cedomir Jovanovic, as well as the party's platform itself, which may
yet be too avant-garde for a Serbian polity slow to abandon its
Milosevic-era tendencies. End Summary.

NASCENT PARTY GAINS STAMINA
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2. (SBU) The pre-election coalition of center-left "micro parties"
led by LDP -- including the Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS),the
Social Democratic Union (SDU),and the League of Social Democrats of
Vojvodina (LSV) -- earned 5.39 percent of the vote in the January
2007 parliamentary elections, sufficient to earn 15 seats in
parliament. This showing surpassed the expectations of many, given
LDP's relative youth -- the party was founded only in November 2005
from a break-away faction of Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS).
LDP leadership attributed the coalition's success to tireless
campaigning by energetic local chapters and by Jovanovic personally,
unexpectedly high voter turnout (with additional voters thought to
disproportionately favor reformist democratic parties),and LDP's
"fresh" message that stood in diametric opposition to the
nationalist policies of PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia
(DSS) and the watered-down reformism of DS. In addition, LDP gained
the backing of all significant Serbian human rights NGOs in the
run-up to the elections. Votes brought in by the LSV in Vojvodina
also certainly helped push the coalition over the 5 percent
threshold.

PLATFORM AND POLICY PRIORITIES
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3. (SBU) LDP has adopted a program noticeably more liberal than that
embraced by the DS, including an acknowledgment of the inevitability
of Kosovo's independence; lustration, especially in the judiciary;
advocacy of shock economic therapy and full, immediate
privatization; and support for issues like gay rights (in a still
strongly patriarchal and deeply homophobic society). LDP also was
the only party to criticize the International Court of Justice
ruling that Serbia was not responsible for conducting genocide in
Bosnia (reftel) as too lenient, arguing that the verdict did not
sufficiently censure Milosevic's policies. LDP is currently
gathering signatures to propose a declaration at the next session of
parliament condemning the Srebrenica massacre, accepting
responsibility for the war in Bosnia, expressing profound regret to
the Bosniak people, asking for their forgiveness, and offering acts
of symbolic reparation as a gesture of healing.


4. (SBU) LDP's senior leadership has stressed privately that it
plans to focus its initial efforts primarily on parliamentary
legislation pertaining to the economy, the justice system, human
rights, and decentralization -- although they admitted the latter
would be difficult to push through parliament, as most parties are
opposed to substantive devolution and would invoke the provisions
against it in the new constitution. LDP has already drafted several
pieces of legislation to this end: an anti-discrimination act, a
right to privacy act, a measure granting free legal aid provided in
some cases by NGOs, a forward-leaning law regulating the activities
of NGOs, and a law establishing a ministry to support youth
organizations.

PARTY STRATEGY AND PRIORITIES
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5. (SBU) LDP president Cedomir Jovanovic told us the party has no
interest in participating in the next government, in part because
such a move would require undue compromises to the party's
principles with the political scene still arrayed too heavily on the
conservative side of the spectrum. LDP has categorically rejected
(and vice-versa) entering a coalition with PM Kostunica's DSS.
LDP's strategy is to build up the party organization and credibility
in opposition, do well enough in local and Vojvodina provincial
elections (predicted for later in 2007) to maintain momentum, and
parlay this momentum into votes in the next parliamentary elections.



6. (SBU) Ivan Andric, GSS Vice President and a member of LDP's
parliamentary caucus, said that he expects LDP to make it into the
local assemblies in all of Serbia's major cities and towns after the
next municipal elections, and to do particularly well in Vojvodina
and Belgrade. LDP is particularly counting on picking up DS voters
disenchanted by DS's potential ruling coalition deal with DSS. LDP

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presidency members told us they felt confident that the party could
expand its electorate -- even if new elections were held soon --
because the other democratic parties would surely lose face in new
elections, either for failing to form a government, or alternately
for compromising principles in order to cement a coalition. By
contrast, LDP's voting base (and disenchanted DS voters, they hope)
would be encouraged by the party's principled stand in staying in
the opposition.

LIMITS TO LDP'S POTENTIAL
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7. (SBU) Despite the party's fast start and big plans, many in the
political and analytical establishment are not yet convinced of
LDP's staying power. Srdjan Bogosavljevic, chief of the Strategic
Marketing agency -- a major polling source for the DS -- argues that
LDP is nothing more than a forward-leaning faction of the DS and
will either find a way to reintegrate with the DS or stay on the
margins of Serbian politics. Medium Gallup TNS chief Srbobran
Brankovic, close to DSS, shares this view, describing LDP as a
"post-leftist," intellectual-based party with limited appeal to the
broader electorate. LDP officials and supporters, however, maintain
that the continuing salience of national issues like Kosovo and
cooperation with the ICTY distort Serbia's political scene, and
LDP's forward-leaning positions are likely to track closely with a
much broader portion of the Serbian electorate once these issues are
taken off the table.


8. (SBU) Another key obstacle to LDP's electoral potential is
Serbian voters' clouded image of Jovanovic, who has found it
difficult to shake free the allegations of unsavory organized crime
links that dogged him both during Djindjic's time (as they did
Djindjic himself) and in the aftermath of Djindjic's assassination
(bio reporting to follow septel). The numbers are legion in Serbia
of those who embrace LDP's message but cannot stomach its key
messenger. According to International Republican Institute (IRI)
pre-election polling, Jovanovic, just as in the case of Zoran
Djindjic while he was alive, is one of Serbia's most unpopular
politicians, with 15 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of
him and a whopping 63 percent viewing him unfavorably. This 15
percent of the electorate, then, would appear to represent the
realistic ceiling of LDP's current potential.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Fortunately for the slowly growing chunk of the Serbian
populace who is anxious to put the 1990s behind them and advance
quickly toward Euro-Atlantic integration, the dynamic LDP is quickly
emerging as a viable pro-Western nemesis to the Radicals and a thorn
in the side of its languid counterparts elsewhere in the democratic
bloc. Bereft of the hassles of serving in government, but confident
of its growing popularity, LDP is free to reform its party in
accordance with its platform and the will of its voting base.
Although its current voter base is small (220,000 votes in the last
election),LDP's future-oriented message could conceivably ensure it
a viable longer-term presence on Serbia's political scene. However,
in order to thrive in the long term, they will have to skillfully
manage the challenges ahead --a controversial party president, a
platform that may be ahead of its time, and a party philosophy that
eschews flexibility for the sake of idealistic principles. As LDP
is the only party in parliament willing to recognize the
inevitability of the loss of Kosovo -- and taking a firm principled
stance on ICTY cooperation and facing the past -- we will continue
to look for appropriate ways to engage with them to ensure that a
responsible, western-oriented voice is heard in the parliament.

POLT