BELGRADE TOUTS ICJ RULING AS A "NOT GUILTY" VERDICT FOR

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000260

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR YI
SUBJECT: BELGRADE TOUTS ICJ RULING AS A "NOT GUILTY" VERDICT FOR
SERBIA

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) In early reactions, Serbian political parties, media and
the government are touting the ICJ ruling today that Serbia failed
to prevent genocide in Srebrenica and to punish those responsible as
a "not guilty" verdict for the people and for the State, and a
victory for international justice. Although the reactions we are
reporting here are only initial, we have seen no acknowledgement of
the fact that the ICJ apparently seconded an early ruling by ICTY
that (Bosnian) Serb forces committed genocide at Srebrenica.
Despite strong urging from the ICJ for Serbia to cooperate better
with the ICTY that came with the verdict, it is unlikely that this
verdict will result in any immediate movement on the Mladic front.
End Summary.

THE ICJ RELEASES IT RULING
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2. (SBU) The International Court of Justice released its findings
February 26 in a three-hour media session and ruled that although
then-Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) had violated some of its
obligations as stipulated by the Genocide Convention, it could not
be held directly responsible for the genocide which occurred in
Srebrenica (it did not rule that genocide was committed throughout
Bosnia and Hercegovina, but did make specific reference to genocide
in Srebrenica). It found that SCG failed to use its influence to
prevent genocide, and that it also failed to punish the act -- in a
direct reference to Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic and other
indictees. The court did not order any damages to be paid to
Bosnia, but stressed that Serbia should immediately fulfill its
obligations to ICTY.


3. (SBU) Official reaction to the announcement has been trickling
out, and initial signs are that the entrenched political elite will
trumpet this as a victory for Serbia. Ivica Dacic from the
Socialist Party released a statement within an hour of the ruling
stating that the decision is meaningful not only for the government
and the people, but also for his party, which was in power during
the war. He reportedly also suggested that it undermined the ICTY
strategy of "command responsibility" for war crimes. On the other
hand, a representative from the Belgrade-based NGO Youth Initiative
for Human Rights expressed his shock at the ruling, and that it did
nothing for the Serbian people, or for the victims of the massacre.
On the whole, though, representatives from all the major political
parties are speaking with one voice and stating that the court has
proved once and for all that Serbia was not a "co-conspirator" at
Srebrenica.


4. (SBU) Local media outlets, regardless of their political slant,
are also touting the decision as a victory for Serbia - progressive
news website B92 claims "Serbia is not guilty of genocide," while
pro-government Politika's website leads with "SCG: Not Guilty for
the Genocide in Srebrenica". International media, meanwhile, are
highlighting the single ruling against Serbia and stating that
"Serbia failed to prevent genocide".


5. (SBU) Following the broadcast, some Serbian political analysts
stated that the ruling has shifted the majority of the blame onto
Republika Srpska, and that this will create significant tensions
within the Bosnian Federation, making a lasting agreement between
the entities a difficult - if not impossible - proposition.

Comment
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6. (SBU) We expect a fuller reaction from official Belgrade on
February 27. Disappointingly, we have not yet seen any
acknowledgement (or contrition) over the fact that the ICJ agreed
with the ICTY (Krstic case) that Serb forces did indeed commit
genocide at Srebrenica. This is significant, given the widespread
public denial of Serb crimes in B-H and elsewhere. For instance,
only 30 percent of Serbs, according to numerous polls, believe that
Serb forces killed large numbers of Muslims in Srebrenica.


7. (SBU) Given the total lack of progress on the hunt for Mladic
under Serbia's "Action Plan," the new ruling will almost certainly
have little or no effect on the political will of the current
caretaker government to do more to cooperate with ICTY. Indeed,
nationalists here may argue that Serbia -- exonerated of a direct
role in Srebrenica -- has even less of an obligation to cooperate.
Hopefully, clearer-minded politicians will turn the argument around
the other way -- that a democratic Serbia has a moral and legal
obligation to bring the perpetrators of genocide to justice.

MOORE