Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BELGRADE203
2007-02-12 10:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

MORE REALISM OVER KOSOVO OUTSIDE SERBIA'S GOVERNMENT

Tags:  PBTS PREL PGOV UNSC SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4674
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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0203 0431047
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121047Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0240
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1293
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RXFEAA/HQ AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
UNCLAS BELGRADE 000203 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PBTS PREL PGOV UNSC SR
SUBJECT: MORE REALISM OVER KOSOVO OUTSIDE SERBIA'S GOVERNMENT
CIRCLES

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000203

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PBTS PREL PGOV UNSC SR
SUBJECT: MORE REALISM OVER KOSOVO OUTSIDE SERBIA'S GOVERNMENT
CIRCLES


1. (SBU) Summary: At a working breakfast with Serbia's analytical
community, the Ambassador, together with the French Ambassador, took
stock of the Ahtisaari plan and the way forward on Kosovo.
Ambassador Polt stressed that active participation in the next stage
of negotiations is the only way to have an effect on the outcome,
and that, contrary to popular belief, taking a seat at the table is
not equivalent to acceptance of independence for Kosovo.
Participants reflected long-term guarded optimism about the Kosovo
outcome based on a faith in the maturity of the Serbian electorate,
but acknowledged that Kosovo will remain political kryptonite in the
short term. End Summary


2. (SBU) On February 9th, the Ambassador hosted a working breakfast
attended by the French Ambassador, several respected journalists,
politicians and NGO representatives from Serbia and from Kosovo.
The focus of the meeting was on Serbia's response to the Ahtisaari
plan and the upcoming negotiations. Both Ambassadors stressed that
more time, namely a significant delay in the next stage of
negotiations, is not in Serbia's interest. Several participants
noted that a distinction needed to be made between "popular time"
and "political time." Politicians may benefit from a delay as they
can leverage the current situation to strengthen their positions in
ongoing coalition negotiations - but an extension will not affect
the way the final outcome is accepted by the general public. They
also noted that Kostunica's current strategy of delay and refusing
to meet with Ahtisaari may actually be backfiring as may people feel
that Kosovo is being oversold in an attempt to distract them from
more immediate concerns.


3. (SBU) A moderate Kosovo Serb political leader provided the view
from Mitrovica, and stressed that his constituents were extremely
tense and unsettled about the upcoming decision regarding final
status. According to him Kosovar Serbs are mainly afraid of two
things - a mass exodus from the region and the potential division of
Kosovo (driven by Belgrade) which would primarily affect Serbs south
of the Ibar River. He was also concerned about triumphalist
Albanian outbursts affecting Serbs the day after independence was
declared, and the role that Serbs would have in a future Kosovo
government and in society as whole.


4. (SBU) He also expressed his hope that GOS leaders would appear
on national television and urge the Serbs to stay in Kosovo and to
work with their Albanian counterparts in a constructive way to
ensure that their concerns will be reflected in the new Kosovo
constitution. Unfortunately both he and the majority of the other
breakfast guests conceded that the more likely reaction from
Belgrade would be that Prime Minister Kostunica's DSS would work
through their contacts on the ground to encourage Serbs to leave the
region in order to drum up international concern over the ensuing
humanitarian crisis. Both Ambassadors stressed that the
international community would not abandon Kosovo Serbs, and that the
KFOR troops would protect Serbs and Albanians alike, stating that
the lessons of March 17th had been learned and that the response to
any violence would be quick and decisive.


5. (SBU) The group also spoke about some recent articles and press
commentaries that openly discussed the likelihood of Kosovo
independence, one editorial in the pro-government daily Politika
having posited that Serbia should accept the inevitable and to move
forward with EU and Euro-Atlantic integration. Ambassador Polt
asked if the pieces constituted the beginnings of a more honest
public dialog of Kosovo status reality. The journalists in the
group stressed that a realistic, forward thinking movement may be
fermenting in some sectors of society. That said, although the
public would not rise up in opposition to unconstructive government
rejection of Kosovo status, Serbs would not go along with a renewed
break with the Western community.


6. (SBU) This meeting was part of an ongoing series of efforts we
are making in cooperation with other Quint Ambassadors and Embassies
to elicit Serb voices in favor of the Ahtisaari proposal and at
least unhappy acceptance of Kosovo reality. At the very least, this
meeting provided a forum for a constructive and thoughtful
conversation among people who help shape public opinion in however
small a way. The general consensus was that the current political
situation is a product of the time the GOS lost by not negotiating
and engaging the international community smartly over the past year.
There was hope that the current batch of reactionary politicians
both in Serbia and in Kosovo would be replaced by a more moderate
group once final status was achieved.

POLT