Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BELGRADE1657
2007-12-12 21:17:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

SERBIA: SPEAKER CALLS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BEGINNING

Tags:  PGOV PREL SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 122117Z DEC 07
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1882
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001657 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: SPEAKER CALLS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BEGINNING
JANUARY 20

REFS: A. Belgrade 1504 B. Belgrade 1552

Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001657

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: SPEAKER CALLS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BEGINNING
JANUARY 20

REFS: A. Belgrade 1504 B. Belgrade 1552

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Serbia's Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic on December 12
formally called for presidential elections, setting the first round
of voting for January 20, 2008 and runoff for February 3. In
announcing elections, Dulic, a member of the President's Democratic
Party (DS),fulfilled a legal mandate, but defied coalition partner,
the Prime Minister's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) which was
holding out for an announcement following an expected December 19 UN
Security Council meeting dedicated to the Troika report on Kosovo
status. The announcement signaled the start of what will likely be
a tough presidential race, pitting President Tadic against the
radicals, opposition partners, and perhaps his own coalition
partner. End Summary.

Speaker Calls for January Elections
--------------


2. (U) Parliament Speaker Dulic appeared on national television on
December 12 to call for election of the President of Serbia and to
establish January 20, 2008 as the date of the first round of voting.
In announcing elections, Dulic fulfilled a mandate under Serbia's
Constitution Law of 2006 that required him to call presidential
elections no later than December 31. The law also required
enactment of a body of legislation on the presidency and elections,
defense, the army, security services, and foreign affairs prior to
the announcement of elections, and Serbia's parliamentarians worked
long into the night this week, passing the last of the requisite
bills on December 10.

Fragile Democratic Coalition Strained
--------------


3. (SBU) Dulic's announcement apparently does not signal support of
all coalition partners. Although Prime Minister Kostunica's DSS and
President Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) had agreed to go forward
with elections, they differed on the timing of the announcement. On
December 10, a DSS spokesperson announced that the party's prefered
to wait until after the UN Security Council's December 19 meeting on
Kosovo before setting the election schedule. In a conversation with
poloff on December 11, Dulic (DS) said that the coalition partners
were negotiating throughout the afternoon to resolve their
differences, and he was optimistic that they would find a way

forward. Nonetheless, after the Speaker informed the parties of the
Parliament of his intention to call elections, shortly before he
publicly informed the press on Dec 12, the media reported the DSS's
"disappointment." B92 Radio broadcast one DSS member's warning that
the party would consider "appropriate counter measures." Party Whip
Milos Aligrudic said, on television, that DSS had not been
consulted, and called the Speaker's act a "severe violation of the
coalition agreement," and suggested that the DSS would respond
accordingly, but not before December 19.


4. (U) In the press conference Dulic convened to announce the
election dates, the Speaker explained that he made his announcement
in compliance with the laws of Serbia. Noting that "all elections
are a celebration of democracy" and an opportunity to empower and
strengthen Serbian institutions," Dulic urged the people of Serbia
to vote.

The Open Back Door
--------------


5. (SBU) In coalition discussions in early November (reftels) the
Prime Minister acquiesced to a January vote, but stipulated that
elections might not go forward in the presence of a threat to
Serbia's territorial integrity. Although there exists no legal
grounds for such a qualification or even an established mechanism to
make a determination of a threat, DSS members, in the month since
the PM's announcement, have consistently and exclusively defined
this "threat" as a universal declaration of Kosovo's independence.
Parliamentarians from all sides of the aisle expect that Kostunica
would have a strong chance of passing legislation necessary to
establish legal grounds for stopping elections. Alternatively,
Kostunica could seek Dulic's removal, but doing so would likely
break the democratic coalition.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The Speaker's announcement was critically timed with
Kosovo in mind -- to precede meetings of the EU Council and the UN
Security Council, set for December 13-14 and 19, respectively. Firm
election dates set the stage for Europeans and others to delay
announcing Kosovo independence until after Tadic's reelection is

BELGRADE 00001657 002 OF 002


well in hand. On December 11, President Tadic told the Ambassador
that he hoped we would refrain from public statements linking
elections and Kosovo. He noted that French Foreign Minister
Kouchner had recently commented that Europe would delay UDI in order
to help Tadic's reelection chances -- "it may be true," said the
President, "but better left unsaid by foreign leaders" for the sake
of his campaign.


7. (SBU) In calling for elections without the Prime Minister's
blessing, Tadic displayed resolve that his party strength (the
numbers, that is) justifies but that he rarely exercises. He will
need considerable backbone to stand up to Kostunica in the weeks
ahead.

MUNTER