SERBIAN PATRIARCH DYING; BISHOPS MANEUVERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001560

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PATRIARCH DYING; BISHOPS MANEUVERING

REF: BELGRADE 1446

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Classified By: DCM Jennifer Brush, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

Summary
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1. (C) Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Pavle is 93 years old and in
declining health. The Church already is preparing to select a new
patriarch. The process of choosing a successor will involve a
complex process of election and divine selection. Metropolitan
Amfilohije and Bishop Irinej are the apparent favorites to succeed
Pavle. U.S. attendance at any eventual funeral of Serbia's most
important and widely beloved spiritual leader will go far in
demonstrating our respect for Serbian culture, at a time when the
public widely believes America is trying to hurt Serbia. Department
should consider high-level, high-profile attendance at the
Patriarch's funeral. End Summary.

Church Appoints Amfilohije as Patriarch Lies Ill
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2. (SBU) The Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) announced the
hospitalization of Patriarch Pavle, November 13, and the appointment
of longest-serving bishop, Metropolitan Amfilohije, to assist the
Patriarch in his duties. Pavle, who is 93, has been ill periodically
for the past two years and has been unable to perform his daily
duties for several months. While Dragan Makojevic, head of SOC's
charity Philanthropy, told DCM that Pavle was in the hospital only
for a routine checkup, the press reports suggest that the Patriarch's
condition is more serious. On November 14, he remained in the
hospital and received President Boris Tadic.


3. (SBU) With Amfilohije's appointment, the Holy Synod (the the SOC
governing body) removed Pavle's previous assistant, Metropolitan
Jovan of Zagreb, Ljubljana, and Italy, replacing the oldest bishop
with the longest-serving. The SOC press release said the choice of
Amfilohije was not a hint about the choice of the next Patriarch.
The press release did not explain the decision to replace Jovan.
Professor of religion and SOC insider Mirko Djordjevic told us the
Synod probably chose to remove Jovan because the SOC perceived as too
sympathetic toward the Macedonian Orthodox Church's claims for
autocephaly. Makojevic told DCM the change was "routine."

How to Elect a Patriarch
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4. (SBU) According to Church law, the 40 SOC bishops of Serbia and
the diaspora elect the new Patriarch. There are approximately 30
bishops who meet the eligibility requirement for nomination (five
years of service as bishop). The secret vote involves a convocation
of at least 2/3 of the bishops and a monk each from the Orthodox
monasteries in Hilandar (Mt. Athos) and Zica. The monks prepare to
act on behalf of the Holy Ghost by fasting and praying for guidance.
The bishops select three nominees whose names they place in envelopes
in a chalice. The elder of the two monks draws one envelope and
names the new patriarch.

Frontrunners
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5. (SBU) Djordjevic told us there was an ongoing power struggle
within the church and that a very active lobby system had been in
play since Pavle entered the hospital on November 13. According to
Djordjevic, the strongest candidates were Amfilohije of Montenegro
and the Coastlands, whom he claims is backed by the Russian Orthodox
Church and probably Kostunica, and Bishop Irinej Bulovic of Backa, a
former Milosevic favorite. The Bosnia lobby supports the infamous
Bishop Vasilije of Zvornik-Tuzla. Vasilije was a notorious Karadzic
and Mladic associate who blessed paramilitary troops as they began
their campaigns and blessed all gatherings at Bosnian Serb army
headquarters on Pale mountain outside Sarajevo. Vasilije also
organized the first overt manifestation of Milosevic-style
nationalism when in 1987, over the objections of the Bosnian republic
government, he organized the ceremonial procession of Battle of
Kosovo hero Tsar Lazar's relics through the monastery outside of
Tuzla. According to Djordjevic, Bishop Artemije from Kosovo was
the weakest candidate. Djordjevic said the government still heavily
influenced church politics and would probably put pressure on bishops
to vote for its favorite.

Comment
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6. (C) There are clearly many forces at work in the succession power
play. It is likely that the government will influence the final
outcome, and Amfilohije seems to be the Prime Minister's candidate.
Despite the pains the SOC took in pointing out that Amfilohije's
appointment as assistant will not affect the next election, it
suggests the SOC leadership favors him as well. Despite Amfilohije's
reputation as a hardliner (he frequently appeared with Milosevic and
has publicly stated support for Hague indictee Ratko Mladic),during
a cordial meeting with Ambassador in October, Amfilohije stated his

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eagerness to cooperate with Post's assistance efforts (reftel),an
encouraging sign.


7. (C) Whether or not Pavle is at death's door right now, he is 93
and may not last much longer. Embassy recommends the Department
begin considering recommendations for the delegation to his funeral.
We expect high-level attendance from the region and parts of Europe,
including President Putin. The patriarchs of the other autocephalous
churches will attend. A high-level delegation from the United States
would convey the message that we respect Serbian history and culture
and that we treat Serbia as a serious member of modern European
society, which should likewise adhere to European standards. End
Comment.

MUNTER