Serbia: Vojislav Seselj Goes on Trial in The Hague while

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001532

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KV SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: Vojislav Seselj Goes on Trial in The Hague while
SAA Initialed in Brussels

SUMMARY
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1. (U) Notorious Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav
Seselj's November 7 war crimes trial in The Hague attracted only
moderate media attention in Belgrade and no public pronouncements or
protests. With the concomitant press of Serbia's initialing of a
Stability and Association Agreement Seselj popularity's at least
this week has been neutralized, as Serbia focuses on a European
future, but is reminded of its bloody past. End Summary

Moderate Media Coverage of Proceedings
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2. (U) Media interest in the case was muted. The influential
pro-government newspaper "Politika" on November 8 dedicated a page
to the trial, reporting the prosecution's opening remarks, trial's
history and Seselj's past inflammatory statements. Most other
dailies documented the opening remarks without analysis or
commentary. The government RTS television station aired the
pre-trial hearing, November 6, drawing 21% of the viewing audience,
but the broadcast of the first day of the trial commanded only a
13.61% audience share, with 382,130 viewers. On November 8, trial
coverage airing Seselj's opening statements attracted 34.01% of the
viewing audience.

Radicals Unlikely to Gain in the Polls
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3. (U) Although the popular wisdom argues that the trial of
Slobodan Milosovic, from 2002-2006,at first boosted his popularity,
this time around local analysts do not expect the Radical Party
(SRS) to profit from renewed scrutiny of Seselj's crimes.
Independent journalist Dejan Anastasijevic told emboff that
"speculation that the trial will boost Radical's popularity is
overrated. Instead, the trial will bring back ugly memories that
even SRS supporters would like to forget," Anastasijevic said.
Presenting a different view, Sonja Biserko of Serbia's Helsinki
Committee told emboff that, with Seselj the link between the state
and the paramilitary forces, the importance of the trial is to
expose the criminality underlying the Yugoslav wars.

Initialing the SAA: Moving Towards Europe
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4. (U) Coinciding with the trial, Serbia's initialing of its
Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European
Commission on November 7, played positively in Belgrade. The
initialing became possible only after The Hague's Chief Prosecutor
Carla Del Ponte confirmed Serbia's continued cooperation with the
Tribunal. Most acknowledged that the event brought Serbia one step
closer to EU membership, while recognizing that Serbia must still
fully comply with ICTY.


5. (U) The governing coalition applauded the initialing of the SAA
and presented the EC a new action plan towards full EU integration.
The action plan calls for Serbia to sign the SAA by the end of
January 2008, to be on the EU's white Schengen list and to be an EU
candidate country, both by the end of 2008. Prime Minister Vojislav
Kostunica said on November 6 he looked forward to a final signing as
soon as possible, noting that the SAA would lead to new investments
and a "better standard (of living) for Serbia's citizens."
President Boris Tadic said on November 7 the initialing proved
Serbia could become a full member of the EU, and hoped the SAA could
be signed in the next couple of weeks, once Serbia achieved full
cooperation with The Hague. .Mladan Dinkic, leader of the G-17 Plus
said on November 6 he hoped Serbia would have EU candidate status by
the end of 2008. Opposition was more cynical, saying Serbia's EU
future was not yet guaranteed. SRS MP, Zoran Krasic (and lawyer to
Seselj),on November 7 criticized the public optimism surrounding
the SAA, saying that the initialing was insignificant and guaranteed
Serbia nothing.

Media Reaction: Mostly Positive, but Realistic
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6. (U) Local media extensively covered the initialing of the SAA.
While positive on the initialing, the media was also astutely aware
that it was primarily symbolic. Pro-government paper "Politika" on
November 8 called the initialing Serbia's entryway into Europe.
"Politika" also carried an interview with Russian Ambassador to
Serbia Alexander Alekseyev, who said Russia supported the SAA
process and congratulated Serbia on the initialing. Only tabloid
"Kurir's" negative coverage stood out. Under the November 8
headline "Exchange for Kosovo?" Kurir speculated that the EU's
sudden goodwill in moving the SAA process along could be
compensation for impending loss of Kosovo

Comment
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7. (SBU) Seselj's trial began at an auspicious moment for Serbia.
As Serbia moves closer to European integration via the SAA process,
providing the public with a healthy dose of the truth will assist
the country, or at least provide an opportunity for the country, to
face the consequences of its past. Looking towards the future, the
initialing of the SAA also comes at a particularly good time for
Serbia's democratic forces who can claim this as a major
accomplishment and point towards Serbia's now clearer path to the
EU, once Serbia fulfills its commitments to The Hague. End comment.



MUNTER