Serbia: Election Announcement to Follow Troika Report on

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001504

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: Election Announcement to Follow Troika Report on
Kosovo; Vote in 2008


Summary
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1. (SBU) The leaders of Serbia's governing coalition agreed on
November 3 to call presidential elections, only after December 10.
The timing defers the call for elections until after delivery of the
Troika's report to the UNSYG on the conclusion of Kosovo status
negotiations and sets the first round of elections no earlier than
January 10. The date of elections is still up in the air, and
politicians and media speculate about a January 13 or 20 first
round. The agreement allows the possibility of further delay;
conditioning announcement of elections on the absence of a threat to
Serbia's territorial integrity. The announcement temporarily
overcomes an impasse on election timing that pitted the president
and prime minister head-to-head and had brought parliament to a
standstill. Political leaders confided both relief that the
compromise agreement will allow parliament to satisfy all
constitutional election requirements and concern about the need to
fix dates lest Kosovo headlines annul the deal. End summary.

Coalition Agrees to Delay
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2. (U) President Tadic, Prime Minister Kostunica, and Economic
Minister Mladjan Dinkic, representing the three parties constituting
Serbia's ruling coalition, on November 3 announced their agreement
to call elections only after December 10. The government also
announced that it would introduce in parliament by November 8 the
drafts of the legally mandated legislation that must be in place
before the speaker calls elections.

Media Claims Victory for Both Sides
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3. (U) Media response has been varied. Independent daily "Blic"
ran a headline claiming that "Kostunica gave in" and tabloid "Kurir"
similarly credited the win to Tadic. Pro-government daily "Novosti"
speculated that the agreement cemented coalition relations and
established the conditions for cooperation.


4. (U) Media reports highlighted that the announcement of the
parties left much indeterminate, including what the parties took in
trade for the compromise and even whether elections will go forward.
The press noted that, in announcing the agreement, Dinkic confirmed
his G-17 Party's support for Tadic's candidacy and Kostunica's
Democratic Party of Serbia explicitly reserved any endorsement. Nor
did the parties announce whether local and provincial elections
would coincide with presidential, although the speculation is that
they will not. Most significantly, the political leaders' agreement
stipulates as a precondition for calling elections that there be no
immediate threat to Serbia's territorial integrity. Public opinion
polls indicate that Tadic has a strong lead and would win, 54% to
46%, in a runoff against Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolic.



5. (SBU) G-17 Party leader Dinkic, in a meeting with the Ambassador
just prior to the announcement of the agreement, confirmed that he
had met with President Tadic, the night of November 2 and that Tadic
had confirmed that a deal with Kostunica was in place. Dinkic,
whose party firmly supports Tadic in the presidential race, seemed
relaxed, even relieved. He said that he wanted to see elections
locked in before the possible uncertainty of the post-December 10
period. Dinkic said he believed the dates would be announced soon,
and expected the first round of the election to be January 20, with
a February 3 runoff.


6. (SBU) Parliament Speaker Dulic, with considerable relief told
poloff on November 3 that the compromise had averted a government
crisis. The test of the agreement, he said, would come on November
5 in parliament when he would try to move pending legislation to a
vote in what had become a paralyzed legislature. The speaker
expected to call the first round of elections for January 13; the
second round on January 27, but acknowledged that these dates could
change. Dulic expressed relief, as well, that the new timetable
would allow parliament to pass all necessary legislation and allow
him to announce election prior to year's end, avoiding a potential
conflict between constitutional requirements.

Comment
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7. (SBU) With Kosovo negotiations coming to an end, a loophole that
allows delay of Serbia's presidential elections in the presence of a
threat to Serbia's territorial integrity is large enough to march an
elephant (or entire province) through. The agreement may have
averted an immediate government crisis, but it sets the stage for a
renewed debate in December. As Kosovo status decisions steal the
spotlight, expect further election delays, which, without changing

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the likely outcome of a Tadic second-round win, leave the prime
minister controlling the political agenda. End Comment.