SERBIAN LEADERS RALLY SUPPORT FOR REPUBLIKA SRBSKA KIN

UNCLAS BELGRADE 001475

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV SR BH
SUBJECT: SERBIAN LEADERS RALLY SUPPORT FOR REPUBLIKA SRBSKA KIN


Summary
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1. (U) With the dissolution of the Serbian-Montenegrin Union in the
recent past and the independence of Kosovo around the corner, Serbia
has seized on political events in Bosnia's Republika Srpska as an
opportunity to proclaim support for the interests of Serbs
region-wide. Serbia's political leaders responded swiftly,
publicly, and sharply to the reports about new procedural rules that
Bosnia's High Representative Miroslav Lajcak introduced. Media has
dedicated considerable space and airtime to covering the events in
Republika Srpska and local reactions. In discussions about Kosovo
and Republika Srpska, Serbia's leaders argue moral and legal high
ground for preserving current status and laws that, they believe,
favor Serbs' rights or Serbia's territory. End Summary.

Defending Dayton
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2. (U) Reacting to High Representative Lajcak's introduction of
three new measures ostensibly intended to stabilize and develop
Bosnia's democratic institutions, PM Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic
Party of Serbia (DSS) on October 23 characterized the OHR's reform
measures as attempts "brutally to abolish Republika Srpska."
Kostunica's media advisor Srdjan Djuric called on Lajcak to rescind
the measures or resign. Interior Minister and DSS Deputy Chair
Dragan Jocic assigned Lajcak blame, in advance, should relations in
Bosnia worsen because of the HR's "efforts to dismantle" the Serb
republic.


3. (U) Although local press reported on October 23 that the meeting
between Lajcak and RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik diffused tensions
in the province, if only temporarily, Serbian leaders were slow to
put down the gauntlet. Prime Minister Kostunica, October 24,
accused Bosnia's High Representative (HR) Miroslav Lajcak of
implementing "policies of force" that would disadvantage ethnic
Serbs in Bosnia's Republika Srpska (RS). Kostunica told the press
that Lajcak sought to amend agreements reached under the Dayton
Peace Accords.


4. (U) Media reported that President Boris Tadic, in a more
modulated message, urged Lajcak "to reconsider" the new measures.
"The voice of the Republika Srpska must be heard and respected,"
Tadic's statement read, "because the Dayton Accords stipulate that a
change ... must be endorsed by consensus of all three constituent
nations." Arguing that the new laws disadvantaged RS Serbs, the
president noted that, under Dayton, no decisions could be taken "to
the detriment of any one constituent nation." Diffusing concern
that he advocated RS independence, Tadic noted "respect for the
territorial integrity of all countries...[including] Bosnia."

Media Coverage
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5. (U) Serbian print and broadcast news outlets covered the
exchanges between Belgrade and Bosnia, throughout the week. On
October 29, all papers ran articles and photos of demonstrations in
RS, and the daily Politika featured a photo of a marcher carrying a
placard bearing a larger-than-life image of Russian PM Putin.
Extensive media coverage came at an unexpected price, however.
October 28, the DSS spokesperson threatened to cease doing business
with B92 radio and television outlet for giving airtime to Zeljko
Kosmic, BiH presidency member, who had reportedly chided Kostunica
for interfering in Bosnian affairs and had threatened to "wrap [the
prime minister's] knuckles."


6. (U) Serbian politicians explicitly linked events in RS and
Kosovo. Kostunica identified the "preservation" of Kosovo and
Republika Srpska as political priorities, and argued that
international agreements protecting the status of each were in
jeopardy. "Lajcak's measures have as a goal the abolishing of
Resolution 1244 and the Dayton Agreement, i.e. the unilateral
declaration of Kosovo's independence and the abolishing of RS."
Serbia's Socialist Party, going further, issued a statement calling
on Serbia to recognize an independent Republika Srpska, should
Kosovo claim independence.

Comment
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7. (U) While some GOS officials may nostalgically pine for the days
when Serbs dominated a united Yugoslavia, Belgrade's attention to RS
does not necessarily signal interest in joining all Serbs under one
roof. Rather, unfortunate timing of the events in Bosnia provided
an opportunity to spin the story to depict Serbia alone in a hostile
neighborhood, with little support (except from Russia),and to paint
international supervisors in Bosnia and Kosovo as mavericks, with
little respect for the international agreement, and less for Serbs.
We expect this theme to reverberate in the weeks leading to the end
of Kosovo negotiations and to presidential elections. End Comment.

BRUSH