Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BEIRUT922
2007-06-25 04:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

LEBANON: JUMBLATT: SECOND GOVERNMENT WOULD

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER SY IS LE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 1259
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000922 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT: SECOND GOVERNMENT WOULD
ENDANGER THE WHOLE COUNTRY


Classified By: DCM William Grant. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000922

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT: SECOND GOVERNMENT WOULD
ENDANGER THE WHOLE COUNTRY


Classified By: DCM William Grant. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a June 21 meeting with the Ambassador, Progressive
Socialist Party (PSP) and Druse leader Walid Jumblatt
expressed his support for the Arab League's initiative to
hold a national dialogue at the deputy level the following
week (an initiative that crumbled shortly thereafter).
Jumblatt remains adamantly opposed to a second government and
believes the key is the presidency. Jumblatt clearly blames
Syria for Lebanon's continuing political turmoil and
deteriorating security situation; following the June 13
assassination of March 14 MP Walid Eido, more and more MPs
are looking to go abroad. End summary.

MILD SUPPORT FOR (NOW DOOMED) ARAB LEAGUE INITIATIVE
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met
with a noticeably somber Jumblatt in his home on June 21.
Jumblatt expressed mild support for Arab League Secretary Amr
Moussa's efforts to reignite a stalled national dialogue
during his June 19 - 22 visit to Beirut. Jumblatt said
Moussa, whose visit got off to a rocky start, was now
convinced that a resumed national dialogue possible. He also
reportedly accepted that issues previously agreed by the
parties would provide the foundation for the talks, which
would focus instead on remaining issues such as Palestinian
arms outside the camps, the formation of the national unity
government, and the upcoming presidential election. Jumblatt
said this plan presented no dangers; the only risk would be
any discussion of a second government, which "would endanger
the whole country." Jumblatt did not think the Arab League
would point fingers at Damascus, since the Saudis and others
"don't want to squeeze the Syrians."


3. (C) Note. Jumblatt later called the Ambassador to report
that Future movement leader Saad Hariri had just told him
that Hizballah would reject the talks unless they were
limited to cabinet expansion, a position the Hariri camp

could not accept. The following day (June 22) Jumblatt faxed
us a copy of a proposed agreement that, had it been accepted
by accepted by March 14 and March 8, would have led to the
resumption of national dialogue talks at the deputy level on
June 28. Instead, the initiative ended in failure: March 14
insisted that previously agreed issues (such as UNSCR 1701
and Siniora's seven points) not be touched, while March 8
refused to agree to any conditions before a new government is
formed. End note.


LEBANON NEEDS CONSENSUS ON PRESIDENCY -- OR WE BECOME LIKE
THE PALESTINIANS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Calling the Lebanese Armed Forces' (LAF) successes
in Nahr el-Barid a "great achievement," Jumblatt said it was
important not to sabotage it now with the creation of a
second government. Visibly discouraged, he said the current
"crisis will continue; the country won't be unified soon."
Openly pondering what March 14 could give the opposition in
order to secure its support for a national unity government,
he stated firmly that there was no leeway on the presidency;
Lebanon needs an "honest president." We need to find a
consensus (Maronite) candidate for president who can lead us
out of the crisis -- otherwise we will end up like the
Palestinians, he said. The president should follow the lines
of UNSCRs 1559 and 1701, he stressed, noting Hizballah's
determination to maintain its right to maintain arms for the
resistance. Free Patriotic Movement leader Aoun "would be a
disaster for the LAF," he stressed.

5. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question as to whether
Lahoud's threats to form a second government were real or
mere scare tactics, Jumblatt, sighing deeply, said Syria had
tried everything to intimidate March 14. Thanks to the
support of the US and France, however, the GOL had held and
Bashir (Assad) was losing, he said. But there was no doubt
the June 13 assassination of March 14 MP Walid Eido was in
response to the creation of the Special Tribunal, he hastened
to add.


BEIRUT 00000922 002 OF 002



6. (C) The Ambassador, noting Syria's recent closing of a
third border crossing into Lebanon and suspicions that Syria
was to blame for recent telecommunications disruptions in
north Lebanon, asked whether a national unity government
(which would include the pro-Syrian opposition) wasn't just
another attempt to bring down the Lebanese government.
Jumblatt replied that March 14 would need guarantees, i.e.,
that there will be no cabinet resignations until a new
president is elected. And, he added, these guarantees would
have to go beyond the borders to include Syria and Iran.
Jumblatt later said former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim
Khaddam had sent him a fax the day before claiming that
Syrians were responsible for the June 17 rocket attacks from
southern Lebanon into Israel, reportedly bringing the rockets
from a Palestinian outpost in Biqa'.



FELTMAN