LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI REVIEWS NEXT STEPS ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000814

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI REVIEWS NEXT STEPS ON THE
TRIBUNAL AND AGAINST SUNNI MILITANTS

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Saad Hariri thanked the Ambassador and IO A/S
Silverberg in a 6/5 meeting for U.S. support in adoption of
the tribunal, and he pledged to move quickly on selecting
Lebanese judges. He suggested that locating the tribunal in
Cyprus could handicap the ability of Turkish pressure on
Syria to cooperate. Hariri commented that passage of the
tribunal was a relief to the moderate opposition, but
expressed frustration that the hard-core pro-Syrians are
fomenting such instability. The GOL has had amazing luck
thus far in the battle against Fatah al-Islam, Hariri noted,
but will need additional weapons for the next phase of its
strikes against Jund as-Sham and other militant groups.
Finally, Hariri, in an aside, attributed to Syrian threats a
Future Bloc Alawite MP's withdrawal from the March 14 group.
End Summary.

WORKING QUICKLY TO
IMPLEMENT THE TRIBUNAL
--------------


2. (C) March 14 majority leader MP Saad Hariri and his
advisors Ghattas Khoury and Nader Hariri thanked the
Ambassador and visiting IO A/S Silverberg in a 6/5 meeting
for U.S. support in the UNSC's recent adoption of the
tribunal. Hariri hoped that the tribunal would deliver
justice in the short-term, and deter similar political
assassinations as well as encourage positive change in
Lebanon and across the Middle East in the long-term. It is
time for Syria to pay if it is guilty, he commented.


3. (C) A/S Silverberg urged Hariri to keep up the pressure to
set up the tribunal. Hariri agreed that Lebanon could move
quickly to establish a closely held list of candidates for
the Lebanese judges. A/S Silverberg explained that the UN
will soon set up an account to collect money for the
tribunal, contacting prospective host countries, seeking out
potential judges, and setting up a framework of staff.
Learning that UNIIIC Chief Investigator Serge Brammertz says
he does not want to be prosecutor but will remain until the
tribunal is formed, Hariri asked whether an unspecified
German woman working with Brammertz who previously worked as
a prosecutor in the Milosevic tribunal might be an
appropriate candidate. Hariri agreed that UN Legal Advisor
Nicolas Michel appears personally committed to establishing
the tribunal, and Ban Ki-moon seems to have delegated further
work on it to Michel. The GOL will continue to reach out to
UNSC members who were not fully supportive of the tribunal to
ease any further, related resolutions. In particular, the
GOL will focus its efforts on South Africa, which Hariri
noted counts on its weapons sales to Syria, as well as
Russia, China, Indonesia, Congo, and Ghana, in order to build
support for Lebanon in any future votes. Qatar, however, is
a lost cause, he said.


4. (C) Hariri did not express a strong preference for the
venue of the tribunal. Although he was not opposed to
Cyprus, Hariri commented that Turkey had been quite helpful
with Syria and that locating the tribunal in Cyprus could put
the Turks in an awkward position in terms of any request to
the Turks to apply their efforts to push the Syrians to
cooperate. Holding the tribunal in Turkey itself might
embarrass Turkey on account of its ties to Syria, Hariri
mused, but PM Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul have been very
supportive thus far.

OPPOSITION REACTION
TO THE TRIBUNAL
--------------


5. (C) The tribunal has had a positive impact on all but the
most hard core pro-Syrian opposition, according to Hariri.
In particular, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri felt that a
great load had been taken off his back. While General Aoun's
personal responses have been contradictory, Aoun bloc MPs
have congratulated Lebanon on the passage of the tribunal.
Suleiman Franjieh appears scared that he will be implicated
by the tribunal, Hariri noted, since he was Minister of
Interior at the time of the assassination and failed
initially to prevent his staff from interfering with
investigation of the crime scene.

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6. (C) In contrast, the hard-core pro-Syrians and the Syrians
themselves are not reacting well. Hariri described the
current period as a concerted Syrian effort to destabilize
Lebanon and make the Lebanese believe that Al-Qaida is
present, in order to make Americans afraid, and in turn to
shift blame for any future political assassinations away from
Damascus. Fatah al-Islam (FAI) leader Shakir al-Absi is not
an al-Qaida member, Hariri argued, and the March 14 coalition
needs to focus on this in the media. Those terrorists who
are in Lebanon are mainly coming through Syria, Hariri noted.


7. (C) Hariri praised Serge Brammertz for building so much
credibility at UNIIIC that even the Russians and Chinese
can't criticize him or consider the Commission politicized.
Khoury asked how quickly the March 14 group might see a
politically useful tool coming out of the tribunal
resolution, such as a report that implicates specific
culprits in the Rafiq Hariri assassination. While Brammertz
could refer the names of individual suspects to the UN and
request that they be sanctioned before referring them for
prosecution, it is unlikely that he would do so, A/S
Silverberg noted. In response to the Ambassador's question
regarding the GOL's reaction if the prosecutor determines he
does not have strong enough evidence to prosecute some of the
four generals detained but not charged, Hariri pledged that
the GOL will abide by the tribunal's recommendations. By
that time Lebanon hopefully will have a new president and
will have entered a new era, Hariri argued.

LOOKING AHEAD TO
MORE SUNNI MILITANTS
--------------


8. (C) The GOL has had amazing luck thus far in the battle
against Fatah al Islam, Hariri gloated, and it is driving
Hizballah crazy that the LAF is winning its battle in the
Nahr al-Barid camp. The LAF's "surgical strikes" (delivered
with 155 Howitzer rounds) have resulted in just 10-15
civilians killed thus far. After a brief respite on June 5,
the army was ready to go further into the camp as early as
that same evening. Of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) killed
thus far fighting FAI, 30 are Sunnis from Akkar, while
another 8 are Sunnis from Tripoli and surrounding areas.
This helped account for the strong Sunni support of the LAF
action. Khoury requested that the U.S. pass a message to
London asking the British government to crack down on
Egyptian Hani Sebai, who appeared on a June 3 television
broadcast from London condemning Muslim LAF soldiers killed
in the fight against FAI and calling the recently killed
leader of al-Qaida in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi a martyr.


9. (C) In addition, the Tameer area, just outside the large
Ain el-Helweh refugee camp, is now quiet after problems with
Jund as-Sham (JAS) militants during the previous two days.
There are no more Lebanese in JAS, Hariri argued, but only
Palestinians and foreigners. However, the other Palestinian
groups, including Hamas, Asbat al-Ansar, and Fatah, formed a
joint command force under the dominant Fatah to control JAS
on behalf of the LAF. The Iranian-affiliated Jihad al-Islami
and Hizballah affiliated Ansar Allah are also intervening to
prevent JAS from taking over Ain el-Helweh. The GOL will
have to deal with JAS once it destroys FAI.


10. (C) Hariri said that addressing JAS as well as the south
Beirut Palestinian tunnels of Naameh and the West Biqa'
Palestinian border position of Qusaya will require different
weapons. Qusaya is today surrounded by LAF following
militants' attempt on June 4 to move heavy artillery and
fighters in from Syria. Lebanon needs precision weapons and
Apache helicopters to fight such militants, Hariri argued.

ALAWI MP
ABANDONS MARCH 14
--------------


11. (C) Making polite conversation to poloff before the
Ambassador's arrival at the meeting, Hariri commented that
Alawite MP Mustafa Hussein of Akkar, who publicly announced
his withdrawal from March 14 earlier that day, called Hariri
before making the announcement. Hussein explained his
withdrawal to Hariri as based on a disparaging comment Walid
Jumblatt made about the Alawi community and promised to stay
with the Future Movement even though he was no longer with
March 14. Khoury noted that Hussein has moved to Beirut for
security reasons and is planning to leave the country; the

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mayor of Hussein's hometown, Tal Abbas, is the head of the
Ba'ath Party in Lebanon.
FELTMAN