LEBANON: PROMINENT BEIRUT CHRISTIAN TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000812

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PROMINENT BEIRUT CHRISTIAN TALKS
POLITICS IN HIS COMMUNITY


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Massaoud Ashqar, widely regarded as one of the best
known Christian figures in Beirut, discussed with poloff
political trends and concerns of the Lebanese Christian
population. He described Michel Aoun as the most popular
Christian leader in Lebanon despite Aoun's unpalatable
alliance with Hizballah. Ashqar, a Kataib regional commander
during the Lebanese civil war, strongly opposes Lebanese
Forces (LF) Commander Samir Geagea and, along with some LF
veterans, has formed a political party to provide an
alternative. Ashqar briefly discussed the current security
situation, describing the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as
"institution number one" in Lebanon. End Summary.

EXPLAINING AOUN'S SUPPORT
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2. (C) Poloff on May 24 met with Massaoud Ashqar, a popular
opposition politician from the Christian Ashrafieh area of
Beirut. Describing the Christian sect's viewpoint on
politics and leadership, Ashqar claimed the majority of
Christians are politically "neutral" -- they oppose both the
March 14 Coalition and Hizballah. General Michel Aoun,
however, is the most representative Christian leader,
according to Ashqar. Although Aoun "lost" 10 to 15 percent
of his supporters by aligning with Hizballah, he would regain
their votes in any election because all other Christian
options are unpalatable. Ashqar assessed that in 2005 Aoun's
support was 70 percent of the Christian population; only 30
or 35 percent came from real Aoun supporters, the rest was
from Christians who did not like the alternatives. Ashqar
pointed to this year's engineering syndicate vote as further
evidence of Aoun's continued support despite the alliance
with Hizballah: Aoun's Christian candidates won the
engineering syndicate vote but the independent Shia engineer
defeated Hizballah's candidate. This suggests, according to
Ashqar, that the majority of Christians voted with Aoun but
the Shia did not back Hizballah.

GEAGEA NOT AN OPTION
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3. (C) Discussing other Christian leaders, Ashqar, a Kataib
regional commander under Bashir Gemayel, described Samir
Geagea as an "extremist." Ashqar said there was, and still
is, "no democracy" in the Lebanese Forces (LF) under Geagea.
He said Geagea's unwillingness to compromise in the current
political environment is unhelpful to the future of the
country. Ashqar also repeated the oft-used Christian
opposition accusation that Geagea sold the Christian
community to the Sunnis when he allied with Sunni leader Saad
Hariri.

FREEDOM PARTY
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4. (C) Ashqar was hesitant to discuss the political party
that LF veterans formed to oppose Geagea, but he provided
poloff general details about the group, called "Freedom" in
Arabic. According to Ashqar -- a leading member of the party
-- the Freedom group proposes a "real partnership" in
Lebanon. They support a new electoral law with smaller, more
representative, districts. (COMMENT: Ashqar judges the
Syrian-imposed election law as the reason why he has not won
election to the Lebanese parliament. The "Ghazi Kenaan"
electoral law groups Beirut's Christian area, Ashrafieh, with
two predominantly Sunni neighborhoods, allowing the Hariri
slate -- which won in the other two districts -- to sweep the
Beirut district in 2005. End Comment.) Although Ashqar
describes the Aoun-Hizballah Memorandum of Understanding as a
"good paper" because it represents dialogue between sects, he
calls Hizballah's weapons "a problem" and claims the state
should control all arms. Freedom supports a solution to the
issue of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon; Ashqar argues that
the Lebanese Government, not the Arab League, should have
jurisdiction over the camps.

LAF AND NAHR EL-BARID
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5. (C) Discussing the country's security situation, Ashqar

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described the LAF as the "institution number one" in Lebanon.
It is the only guarantor of a free Lebanon and the
coexistence of Lebanese. Ashqar claims there is no danger
that the current standoff between the LAF and Fatah al-Islam
in the Nahr el-Barid Palestinian camp will fracture the LAF.
Because the Lebanese population sees Fatah al-Islam as an
external faction, the fight against the group will not
increase tensions among sects in the LAF.
FELTMAN