LEBANON: SINIORA STRESSES TRIBUNAL, AMMUNITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000727

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA STRESSES TRIBUNAL, AMMUNITION


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 22 meeting with the Ambassador, Prime
Minister Siniora urged a quick UN Security Council resolution
establishing the Special Tribunal and expressed confidence
that Indonesia, as a UNSC member, supports the tribunal.
Siniora was convinced of Syrian involvement in the recent
violence in Lebanon and concerned that the fighting could
spread to other Palestinian camps. He asked for urgent
delivery of U.S. ammunition for the Lebanese army and ISF.
End Summary.

FLURRY OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT
--------------


2. (C) On May 22, the Ambassador and poloff attended an
oft-interrupted meeting with Prime Minister Siniora at the
Grand Serail. EU High Representative for Foreign Policy
Javier Solana, in Lebanon for the day, was meeting with
Siniora when the Ambassador arrived. Within moments of
beginning the meeting with the Ambassador, Siniora took a
phone call from UN Secretary General Ban, who was calling to
express support for the Prime Minister and the Lebanese
Government. During the meeting, Siniora also reviewed the
text of a communique issued by Arab League ambassadors in
Egypt; both Siniora and later Minister of Social Affairs
Nayla Mouawad -- whom the Ambassador saw in a separate
meeting -- described it as a surprisingly strong and clear
statement of support.


3. (C) Siniora relayed that he had cancelled his upcoming
trip to Asia because of the security situation in Lebanon.
Siniora expressed particular disappointment at not going to
Indonesia, given Indonesia's membership in the Security
Council. Explaning that he had called the Indonesian
president to explain his cancellation, Siniora expressed
confidence that Jakarta supports the tribunal.

EXCHANGING IDEAS ON TRIBUNAL STRATEGY
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4. (C) The Ambassador explained U.S. tactics in lobbying
UNSC capitals, and mentioned Panama, Peru, Congo, and Ghana
as the countries needing Siniora's strong personal
intervention now. The Prime Minister mentioned that he plans
to seek the support of the Australians -- for their ties in
the region, especially to Indonesia -- and claimed Saudi
Arabia is actively working to gain support for Lebanon's
case. Additionally, he has used Saad Hariri's contacts in
South Africa to press for a phone conversation with Pretoria.
Siniora was supportive of former President Amine Gemayel's
planned trip to Qatar, reported septel, in which Gemayel
would use his personal ties in Doha to solicit Qatari support
for the tribunal.

TRIBUNAL SOONER RATHER THAN LATER
--------------


5. (C) Siniora showed flexibility on the process by which the
tribunal could come into force, but agreed that the court
should be established as soon as possible. The Ambassador
asked Siniora about an idea raised in New York: that the
UNSC would adopt a resolution now that would come into force
if, after a specified amount of time, Parliament is unable to
establish the court on its own. While appearing not to care
passionately one way or another, Siniora was amenable to this
idea, saying it showed respect to Lebanese constitutional
mechanisms. Regarding the concern that a rushed UNSC vote
may get slightly fewer votes, Siniora supported expediting
the process before Syria accelerates its pressure tactics: 9
yes votes now is better than 12 yes votes later, given the
security concerns. He stressed that continued U.S. efforts
to establish the tribunal were key and expressed hope that
the Secretary and White House were fully engaged in the
lobbying process.

ADAMANT ABOUT SYRIAN ROLE
IN RECENT VIOLENCE
--------------


BEIRUT 00000727 002 OF 002



6. (C) While admitting that he had no real evidence, Siniora
said he was convinced that the Sunni extremist group Fatah
al-Islam takes its direction from Damascus. The Prime
Minister expressed concern that fighting in Nahr el-Barad
could spread to several other already tense Palestinian camps
in Lebanon. (Note: Demonstrations earlier in the day at the
Ain el-Helweh camp suggest that Siniora's concern is well
rooted. End Note.) Additionally, the Prime Minister feared
that the violence in Nahr el-Barad has inflamed
anti-Palestinian sentiment in Lebanon's Sunni and Christian
communities. Siniora noted that he has been meeting with
Palestinian leaders individually and collectively in order to
calm the situation in the other camps and to seek a solution
for Nahr al-Barid.


7. (C) Regarding the cause of the current fighting, Siniora
admitted it was possible that on Sunday, May 20, the Lebanese
Internal Security Forces (ISF),in tracking bank robbery
suspects, had stumbled onto a Fatah al-Islam safehouse that
triggered the violence and led to high numbers of LAF
casualties. However, he offered a theory of his own.
Siniora suggested that Fatah al-Islam had actually lured the
ISF to its safehouse -- knowing that fighting would follow --
in order to support the group's "self-defense" excuse for
attacking Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) units near the camp.

PM'S SECOND POINT: SECURITY FORCES NEED AMMO
--------------


8. (C) In addition to U.S. help on the tribunal, Siniora
requested ammunition for both the LAF and the ISF. He
assessed that now, U.S. action in these two areas is more
useful than verbal support. Saying that once this current
security problem is behind us and the tribunal established,
the Prime Minister then raised Sheba'a Farms as the next
topic for U.S. assistance, given the upcoming UNSCR 1701
report.
FELTMAN