LAHOUD'S LEGAL ADVISOR CLAIMS TWO-CABINET SCENARIO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000708

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2027
TAGS: PREL PTER KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: LAHOUD'S LEGAL ADVISOR CLAIMS TWO-CABINET SCENARIO
NOT INEVITABLE


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Judge Selim Jeressaiti has a tough job: to persuade
otherwise intelligent people that President Emile Lahoud's
views have constitutional weight. Lahoud's recent rambling,
ridiculous, but damaging letter to the UNSYG Ban regarding
the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was a Jeressaiti product.
The former Constitutional Council member met with the
Ambassador on 5/18 to encourage the USG to use its influence
to persuade Fouad Siniora to resign the premiership, an
essential step in Jeressaiti's view to solving the cabinet
crisis and preventing Lahoud from taking calamitous
decisions. Siniora's cabinet would, in Jeressaiti's view,
then have constitutional legitimacy as a caretaker cabinet
(although even Jeressaiti, when pressed, acknowledged that
Lahoud might not recognize even that). This would also
prevent Lahoud from appointing a second cabinet, a step that
Jeressaiti insists Lahoud will not take in any case until the
last moments of his presidency. As for rumors that Lahoud
might declare the dissolution of the parliament, Jeressaiti
said that he was advising Lahoud that he enjoyed no such
power. But Jeressaiti refused to dismiss altogether the
danger that Lahoud might proceed despite the advice of his
lawyer. Jeressaiti's credibility is somewhat questionable,
given his insistence that the odious Lahoud "likes and
respects" the U.S. and considers Fouad Siniora a personal
friend (feelings, we assure you, that are not reciprocated).
End summary.

APPOINTMENT OF SECOND CABINET:
LAHOUD TO WAIT UNTIL END OF HIS TERM
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2. (C) The Ambassador invited Selim Jeressaiti, the amiable
former member of Lebanon's Constitutional Council (ousted
when March 14 MPs dissolved the Syrian- and Lahoud-appointed
judges),to the Residence on 5/18 in an attempt to explore
what President Emile Lahoud -- who turns to Jeressaiti for
legal advice -- is thinking vis-a-vis the appointment of a
second cabinet. Agreeably concurring with the Ambassador
that a second catastrophe would be a calamity for Lebanon,
Jeressaiti assured the Ambassador that he had persuaded
Lahoud not to move precipitously in that direction. The de
facto existence of the cabinet of Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora, in Jeressaiti's view, makes it legally and
constitutionally "dubious" for Lahoud to appoint a second
cabinet. So far, Jeressaiti said, Lahoud was following his
advice.


3. (C) But, Jeressaiti warned, if the cabinet crisis
continues and no compromise emerges on the presidency, "I
can't guarantee Lahoud won't act eventually." He predicted
that Lahoud will, in his final days in office in November,
appoint a second prime minister and second cabinet, should
the political crisis persist. Whatever the constitutional
arguments Jeressaiti might muster, Lahoud told Jeressaiti
that he would "never" turn over the presidency functions to
an "illegal" cabinet headed by Fouad Siniora. Questioned by
the Ambassador, Jeressaiti again insisted that "we have time"
to solve the crisis before Lahoud moves in that direction.

ADVISING LAHOUD HE HAS NO POWER
TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT BY HIMSELF
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador asked Jeressaiti whether he thought
Lahoud would twist Article 65 of the constitution in such a
way that would justify dissolving parliament. Jeressaiti
acknowledged that Lahoud had been musing about such an idea
with his legal advisor. His advice to Lahoud was that the
president enjoyed no such unilateral power under the
constitution. "He may think he has the power to dissolve
parliament, but he does not. He needs the cabinet." So far,
as with the cabinet, Lahoud was following his advice.
Answering the Ambassador's questions, Jeressaiti acknowledged
that his arguments have not put the subject to rest
definitively, however. Lahoud may still try to dissolve
parliament. Again, Jeressaiti argued that there is still
time to solve the crisis before that happens.

CABINET CRISIS CAN BE SOLVED,
IF ONLY SINIORA WOULD RESIGN
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BEIRUT 00000708 002 OF 003




5. (C) Given that there is still time to head off damaging
moves by Lahoud, Jeressaiti argued that it is important to
solve Lebanon's cabinet crisis now. Perhaps a new,
technocratic cabinet could oversee Lebanon until presidential
elections; perhaps Siniora's existing cabinet could be
expanded. But the status quo will lead to danger, Jeressaiti
argued. To start the process of a solution, Fouad Siniora
should resign in the near future, perhaps after the Special
Tribunal is approved by the UN Security Council. At that
point, Jeressaiti said, the Shia would rejoin the cabinet,
which would then enjoy caretaker status. Caretaker cabinets
are constitutionally recognized, and Lahoud's desire to
appoint a second cabinet could not be acted upon. The
Ambassador asked whether Lahoud would recognize the
constitutional caretaker status of the cabinet. "I would
advise him to do so," Jeressaiti said. Yes, but would he?
"Probably not," Jeressaiti conceded. Pressed by the
Ambassador, he acknowledged that Lahoud would also continue
to reject all decisions taken by the cabinet between November
11 (when the Shia ministers resigned) and today. The
Ambassador told Jeressaiti that, while the decision is not
ours, there seemed very few advantages to a Siniora
resignation and many disadvantages.

LETTER TO UNSYG ON TRIBUNAL:
LAHOUD'S CYA EXERCISE?
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador asked Jeressaiti about Lahoud's 5/16
letter to UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon regarding the tribunal. "You
didn't like it?" Jeressaiti asked; "it's an excellent
letter!" The Ambassador described the letter as rambling and
ridiculous. Why, the Ambassador asked, does Lahoud insist on
making himself look even more foolish in the eyes of the
world? Why wouldn't he simply remain silent and finish
office with a modicum of self-respect? Growing quiet,
Jeressaiti said that Lahoud "had" to send the letter to Ban.
Lahoud knows that the tribunal will be adopted under Chapter
VII, but he needed to be able to tell the Syrians and
Hizballah that he had tried everything to stop it. The
letter needs to seen in that context, Jeressaiti explained,
as Lahoud knows it won't make a difference in New York.
(Comment: We hope it doesn't make a difference in New York.
French Ambassador Bernard Emie commented separately, after
being briefed on the Friday discussions among UNSC members,
that "we should not underestimate the damage of Lahoud's
letter" on the debate in New York. End comment.)


7. (C) In closing the meeting, the unfailingly cordial
Jeressaiti said that Lahoud deeply regrets the deterioration
of his relations with the United States. While he never
liked France, he always felt at home with Americans and
considers his time at the Naval War College to be a high
point of his life. Despite everything, Lahoud "likes and
respects you," Jeressaiti insisted. Lahoud's expansive sense
of generous friendship extends even to Fouad Siniora,
Jeressaiti continued. Siniora and Lahoud are neighbors in
the mountain resort of Faqra, and Andree Lahoud and Houda
Siniora have always been close. Lahoud considers Siniora a
friend. Lahoud believes that there is probably no one better
than Siniora to be PM of Lebanon, but there must be a
solution to the cabinet crisis.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Jeressaiti was at pains to insist that we have time
to head off any plans by Lahoud to appoint a second cabinet.
But we are not reassured by Jeressaiti's words -- if the
Syrians tell Emile Lahoud that it is time to appoint a second
prime minister, we don't think Jeressaiti's constitutional
arguments will count for much. Whatever he claims his
personal views on the legality of such a step to be, he will,
in fact, be the one tasked with finding the shreds of
constitutional arguments to justify such a move. We're
skeptical of Jeressaiti's words in any case: does he really
expect us to believe that Lahoud "likes and respects"
Ambassador Feltman? While our goal in this meeting was to
explore what Lahoud might be thinking, Jeressaiti's goal
seemed to be to encourage us into prodding Siniora to resign.
If March 14 and GOL leaders themselves concludes that they
are better off with a caretaker cabinet, that is their
business. We will listen to their explanations. But we are
not going to promote an idea ourselves that strikes us as
adding one more layer of weakness to Siniora's grip on the

BEIRUT 00000708 003 OF 003


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